FPL GW4 caused some panic among managers. Villa assets disappointing yet again – and a quick success for Wildcarders – have made things difficult to assess. Amid this storm, it is important to take a step back and strategize with tranquility. This article deep-dives into each team’s desirable fixture run to help target players in strategy.
Analysing fixture runs also means weighing each team’s European schedule. A hectic midweek can introduce rotation risk. For such teams, prioritise guaranteed starters to minimise risk, or maintain a strong bench to cover unexpected absences.
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FPL Fixture Swing Analysis
Fixture Overview:
The graphic gives a quick sense of how midweek commitments stack up for Premier League teams. For instance, Manchester United’s free midweeks could provide an edge, while Palace’s European schedule could strain performance.
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis- Immediate Targets (GW5 – GW7)
Tottenham | GW5-GW7
Spurs’ run: Brighton (A), Wolves (H), Leeds (A). This three-game stretch is followed by an out-of-form Villa and a more attack-focused Everton. They can be held until GW9.
Fixture Congestion: With Champions League football returning to Tottenham, expect rotation in wide areas and potential rests during midweek & weekend turnarounds. Richarlison was the first victim starting on the bench in GW4 – and played 80 minutes in their 1-0 win against Villareal.
Key Considerations: Richarlison minutes remain dodgy. In defence, Pedro Porro and Micky van de Ven and Romero appeal. In midfield, Xavi Simmons stands out as an option (played 77 minutes in the CL) – Kudus and Brennan Johnson would be slightly down in the pecking order.
Aston Villa | GW5-GW7
Many managers started with Villa assets for their GW5–7 run: Sunderland (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A). Two promoted teams in next three. It is difficult to make a case for them to be considered on transfers – goal-less in the PL and their midweek loss against Brentford.
For Wildcarders, it’s a genuine dilemma: does form follow fixtures, or is patience required?
Fixture Congestion: Villa have packed midweeks due to Europe, but the schedule is manageable given the slightly easier fixtures and improved squad depth. Watkins, Rogers were on the bench, while Harvey Elliot featured in the starting XI.
Key Considerations: Ollie Watkins is the primary threat, while Morgan Rogers is a differential. Monitor the new signings – Harvey Elliot for future punts.
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Liverpool | GW13-GW19
Liverpool host the Merseyside derby in GW5, then face a rocky patch until GW13, when a seven-game run of strong fixtures begins.
Fixture Congestion: Champions League commitments intensify rotation risks, but depth should maintain performance levels through busy spells.
Key Considerations: Mohamed Salah remains the standout, but managers can consider cheaper alternatives like Gakpo for value. With Isak arriving, Ekitike will likely see reduced minutes. Virgil van Dijk is the only defensive option worth holding in my opinion, given the uncertainty among full backs.
Crystal Palace | GW5 & GW10-GW17
Palace offer one great fixture, with the latter run providing extended opportunity. Oliver Glasner’s attacking approach creates FPL-friendly assets. They face West Ham (A) in GW5. They have a rough run till GW10 but the defensive assets can be kept for DefCon potential.
Fixture Congestion: Thursday nights are a factor and could affect performance. However, Palace look settled and appear equipped to manage it.
Key Considerations: Jean-Philippe Mateta has penalties following Eze’s departure. Sarr’s injury surely impacted their creativity. Defence has been excellent – Lacroix, Muñoz, Richards, and Guéhi (now staying) offer strong value.
Bournemouth | GW6 & GW13-GW18
Bournemouth have two strong windows separated by tougher fixtures. Their early-season form under Andoni Iraola makes them attractive for budget managers. GW6 could be a good entry point and they are in an impeccable form.
This spell begins with a neutral run; Leeds looks favourable. Then FUL (H), CRY (A), NFO (H) are a mixed bag. From GW12: West Ham (H), Sunderland (A), Everton (H) are targetable.
Fixture Congestion: NA
Key Considerations: Antoine Semenyo is an explosive differential and looks better than ever. He impressed with his 13-pointer against Brighton with offering some confidence by taking the penalty. Evanilson is also a great option after scoring against Spurs last week. Defence looks settled post-window – Senesi at £4.6m stands out.
Wolverhampton | GW5-GW10
Vítor Pereira’s Wolves are an underrated play in this spell. They face all three promoted sides across these six Gameweeks, with Brighton and Fulham in the middle.
Fixture Congestion: Carabao Cup ties exist but should be manageable.
Key Considerations: Strand-Larsen is injured: Agbadou (£4.5m) offers defensive value. Hwang Hee-chan should get some consistent minutes.
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis- Intermediate Targets (GW7 – GW11)
Arsenal | GW7-GW11
Arsenal’s GW7–11 swing is one of the season’s best. After a stellar performance against Nottingham Forest – Manchester City, and Newcastle remain before they hit their prime: West Ham (H), Burnley (A), Sunderland (A), with Fulham and Palace in between.
This five-week run is the perfect entry. Viktor Gyökeres (£9.0m) could explode. Saka’s injury timeline should be clearer soon. Eberechi Eze should also be more integrated by then after his £80m move.
Fixture Congestion: The GW7 entry follows a long international break, which always carries injury risk. Around Burnley (1 Nov) and Sunderland (8 Nov), they also travel to Prague (4 Nov) for the Champions League, a prime rotation zone. No player is free from rotation as Arteta seems to be utilizing the squad depth. Rice being rested was the biggest surprise & Gyokeres witnessed 60-70 minutes subs.
Key Considerations: Gyökeres brings penalty threat and could challenge Saka. Monitor Saka’s return closely. Declan Rice (£6.5m) is a safe route into the attack (prone to rotation now). Defensively, Raya, Gabriel, and the full-backs (Timber, Calafiori) have impressed.
Chelsea | GW9-GW16
Chelsea started 2025/26 with two wins and a draw in three games. Their new system is bedding in with fresh additions. The GW9 run starts at home to Sunderland. Aside from Arsenal in GW13, their picks look set-and-forget across this stretch. Managers can use a Free Hit to navigate GW13 if needed.
Fixture Congestion: Champions League fixtures could impact the starting XI. Enzo Maresca stated that even Sancehz could be rotated. Cucurella was rested against Brentford in GW4. No player is free from an odd rotation.
Key Considerations: João Pedro has stood out. Caicedo has been a quiet star, topping DefCon in two games. The defence looks strong – Chalobah and Cucurella are worth serious thought. Palmer was back and marked his name straight to score-sheet.
Man City | GW6-GW8 & GW13 Onwards
City’s fixtures lift for three weeks – Burnley, Brentford, Everton – then mix until GW12. From GW13 to GW23, it’s a superb run. A GW13 Wildcard could maximise value. GW5 basically allows us for a plan to somehow fit Haaland in our teams.
Fixture Congestion: Pep roulette is ever-present, but early European lineups will hint at who’s most secure.
Key Considerations: Haaland has started strongly with high xG and frequent chances. He looks sharper than ever (brace against United, where he easily could’ve had more). Reijnders’ GW1 display raised expectations and he remains a good price pick. Marmoush‘s injury allowed Foden to get some minutes and Reijnders pushing up the pitch.
West Ham | GW8-GW12
Despite a slower start, the Hammers shouldn’t be ignored. A late win over NFO restored confidence as Potter’s tweaks took shape. GW8 vs Brentford is a fair entry, with Leeds and Burnley in between.
Fixture Congestion: NA
Key Considerations: Jarrod Bowen heads their attack and has penalties. Diouf could offer value and has been popping off with assists.
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis- Latter Targets (Post GW12)
Manchester United | GW7 & GW12 Onwards
Beyond Sunderland in GW7, United’s early fixtures are tough. From GW12, they become appealing, starting with Everton (H).
Fixture Congestion: NA
Key Considerations: Bruno Fernandes remains the talisman with penalties – there’s a case to hold him through the rough patch. However, he is not too good to watch on the eyes as he is playing more of a CDM. I’d pick Mbeumo over him, as he offers more explosiveness.
Fulham | GW10-GW12
Fulham have two windows. GW5 offers some value; GW10–12 is a second chance after a tricky stretch. The lack of a clean, extended green run makes it harder to fit them in.
Fixture Congestion: Limited European commitments reduce rotation risk, but timing around the mid-block is key.
Key Considerations: Smith Rowe had a fantastic 2024/25; Iwobi also offers potential. Muniz is exciting, while Jiménez could share minutes. Andersen is great for rotation with cheap defenders, or playable for DefCon in tougher fixtures.
Newcastle | GW15-GW19
Newcastle’s winter window includes multiple home matches at St James’ Park. Until then, last season’s stars face a tough run apart from West Ham in GW10.
Fixture Congestion: Champions League fixtures may exacerbate issues for an already stretched squad.
Key Consideration: Wissa missed out while Woltemade impressed, scoring a beautiful header on his debut. In midfield, Elanga, Gordon, Barnes, and Murphy are worth monitoring. Defenders could also be strong for DefCon – Dan Burn, Schar & Hall are some options.
Final Thoughts | Strategic Implementation
Early Season: Plan for Spurs, and City attackers for GW6–7 while monitoring Bournemouth’s form.
Mid Season: Pivot to Chelsea and Arsenal around GW7/GW9: this is also a viable Wildcard window.
Latter Part of 2nd Half: From GW13, United, Newcastle, and Man City become attractive.
International Break Risks & Midweek Rotation: Monitor injuries closely, especially for teams with heavy international duty and packed midweeks. Identify these patterns early. Build transfer strategies around optimal windows and manage congestion risks with careful selection and timing.
Thank you for reading this blog, ‘Fixture Swing Analysis 2025/26’ ahead of Gameweek 5. Happy Planning!
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW5
FPL GW5 Predicted Lineups, Injuries & Press Conference Updates
FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season
FPL GW5 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 5
FPL GW5 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Top FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW Deadline
Best FPL GW5 Midfielders to Target Based on Stats & Fixtures
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target
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