Top FPL GW29 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

It is finally here. The week that we have all been planning for in the past couple of months. The much dreaded blank Gameweek. Indeed, there are only 4 fixtures this week, as most of the big teams miss out due to FA Cup matches. We suggest possible players to bring in either your FH team or without a FH as well. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW29 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.

Link to all our FPL GW29 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW29 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Rodrigo Muniz vs Spurs(H), £4.5m, TSB: 3.2%

Although Fulham lost at Wolves last time out, their performance deserved more to say the least. The Cottagers have been in good form of late. Marco Silva’s men have won 3 out of their last 5 games.

The primary reason for Fulham’s upturn in fortunes is the form of their striker Rodrigo Muniz. He has registered 6 attacking returns (5G 1A) in the last 6 league matches.

Since GW23, only a certain Erling Haaland has registered more shots in the box than the Fulham striker. Furthermore, Muniz(9) is second only to Gross(13) for bonus points in this period.

Fulham’s upcoming fixtures are attractive to say the least. Spurs have the ninth worst record in the league for big chances conceded(71). Meanwhile, Sheffield United(90) and West Ham(78) have the second worst and the joint third worst record for the same stat.

Key Stat

Five of Muniz’s six attacking returns have come at home. In fact, he has 5 attacking returns in his last 3 home matches. Given the fact that Fulham play at home, Muniz should be a lock in to your FPL GW29 Free Hit teams.

Further Read: FPL GW29 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Anthony Elanga vs Luton(A), £5.1m, TSB: 2.3%

Anthony Elanga surprisingly got benched last week at Brighton as Forest lost out by 1-0 at the Amex stadium. However, we reckon that Elanga will be back into the starting eleven in Forest’s FPL GW29 relegation six pointer against Luton Town.

The former Manchester United man is Nottingham Forest’s biggest goal threat. Indeed, he has been involved in more goals (5G 7A) than any of his teammates. To put it in numbers, Elanga has been involved in 35% of Forest’s goals this season.

Only 2 of the remaining 10 matches for Nuno’s men are against teams in the top 8. For starters, Luton have conceded more big chances in the league than any other team. They let a 3 goal lead slip last night against Bournemouth as they lost out 4-3.

Only Watkins(10) and Haaland(12) have had more big chances than Elanga(7) since GW23, in the entire league. We have to bear in mind the fact that Elanga has played a mere 468 mins, whereas Watkins and Haaland have played 539 and 611 mins respectively.

Meanwhile, Luton(109) have conceded the third most number of chances from the left flank this season. As we know, that is exactly where Elanga operates.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 29 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Yoane Wissa vs Burnley(A), £5.6m, TSB: 5.4%

Wissa scored the equaliser for Brentford last time out at the Emirates in the Bees’ 2-1 defeat. The striker now has scored in each of the last three matches. Overall, he has scored 7 goals this campaign, matching his tally of the previous two seasons with 10 games to spare.

In spite of playing significantly fewer minutes, Wissa beats Toney in almost all the key stats over the last three Gameweeks. Therefore, there is good reason to pick the former over the latter, besides the fact that he is £2.5 cheaper.

Seven of Brentford’s remaining ten fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Six of those games are against teams in the bottom half of the table. Five of their seven wins have come against such opposition so far. Crucially, they have only lost three matches against these teams.

Meanwhile, Burnley(62) have conceded the second most number of goals in the league. The Clarets(71). have the seventh worst record in the league for big chances conceded. Luton(100), Sheffield United(90), and Aston Villa(78) are the three worst teams in the league for big chances conceded. The Bees face each of these three teams in the next six game weeks.

Lucas Paqueta vs Aston Villa(H), £6.0m, TSB: 1.7%

Lucas Paqueta is the most important player for West Ham by a country mile. The Hammers have won none of the seven games that the Brazilian has missed so far this season. In his presence, they have only lost 5 of the 21 games. Only one of those losses have come at home.

In a nutshell, West Ham plays well when Paqueta plays. But that is not the reason why you should bring him into your FPL teams ahead of FPL GW29. For starters, the Brazilian has registered 1 goal and 4 assists in the last 5 starts in the league.

The above graphic gives a telling difference in role for Paqueta since his return from injury. The stat that stands out the most is the touches in the box. This shows that he is taking more advanced positions in the last three GWs. Indeed, we’ve seen Soucek and Alvarez play deeper, with Paqueta playing almost as a second striker for the Hammers.

Meanwhile, West Ham’s opponents Aston Villa shipped four goals at home to Spurs last time out. The Villains(78) have the third worst record in the league for big chances conceded in the league so far.

Further Read: FPL GW29 Free Hit Guide – Players to Target and Best Drafts

Destiny Udogie vs Fulham(A), £4.9m, TSB: 8.9%

Destiny Udogie has registered 5 attacking returns (2G 3A) so far this season. Two of those attacking returns have come in the last five starts. Oddly enough, each of his three assists have come on the road this season. While both of his goals have come in his own backyard!

The Italian(65) has the second best record in the league for touches in the box among defenders. Only James Tarkowski(67) has a better tally than the Spurs man. The latter has played nearly 500 mins more than the former.

Meanwhile, Fulham conceded 27% of chances from the right side of their defence. Only Liverpool(28%) and Brighton(28%) have a worse tally than Spurs’ FPL GW29 opponent. As we know, Udogie operates down that side.

Key Stats

• Luton(109) have the third-worst record for chances conceded through the left flank, Spurs play them in GW30.
• West Ham(104) have the fifth-worst record for chances conceded through the left flank, Spurs play them in GW31.
• 4 of Udogie’s 5 attacking returns have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Further Read: FPL GW29 Free Hit: Position Wise Players to Target | FH Active

FPL GW29 Ultra Differential Pick (<1% ownership)

Brennan Johnson vs Fulham(A), £5.8m TSB: 0.8%

After registering a mere 3 attacking returns in the first 18 matches, Brennan Johnson has got 8 attacking returns (3G 5A) in the subsequent 10 matches for Spurs.

Player	Mins	GI	Points	BC	BCC
Johnson	603	8	52	5	4
Son	567	8	51	3	7
Richarlison	641	6	51	6	1
Maddison	518	4	29	1	2
Werner	421	4	29	4	2

The stats of Spurs players since Gameweek 18 presents an interesting viewing. Brennan Johnson comes out on top for points among all the attackers. Not just that, he is second best for both big chances and big chances created in that time. Truth be told, he well and truly has gone under the radar.

The stat that shocks us the most is the fact that he has got more points than Richarlison in spite of playing fewer minutes than the Brazilian. Besides, Johnson is at least £1.1 cheaper than all of the attacking players on the above list.

Spurs’ next four games are extremely winnable in nature. These games also are crying out for goals. Each of Fulham(15th), Luton(20th), and West Ham(17th) are in the bottom six for big chances conceded in the league.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW29

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Best FPL GW29 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW29 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW29 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 29 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW29 Tips – Players to Target, No Free Hit Strategy & More
Top FPL Gameweek 29 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW29 Free Hit Guide – Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL GW29 Free Hit: Position Wise Players to Target | FH Active
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL GW29 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW29 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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