Top FPL GW28 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

With Man City playing against Liverpool, and teams like Bournemouth and Luton doubling, FPL GW28 is set up to be exciting. Especially considering an upcoming blank GW29. If ever there was a GW to take punts, this is it. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW28 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.

Link to all our FPL GW28 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW28 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Carlton Morris vs Crystal Palace(A), Bournemouth(A), £5.1m, TSB: 7.4%

Double Gameweeks can do strange things to us FPL managers. Carlton Morris is the second most transferred in player as we head into FPL GW28. If that doesn’t surprise you, then hear this one out- a lot of FPL managers are pondering bringing in the Luton man to replace a certain Erling Haaland!

As far as fixtures go by, these three fixtures are as good as they can get for the Hatters. Given Haaland has only one fixture and that too at Anfield, it is understandable as to why FPL managers are thinking to do the unthinkable!

Since Gameweek 19, Morris is the eighth highest points scorer in FPL, with 54 points. In fact, in this time period, only Foden(10), Saka(10), and Watkins(13) have had more goal involvements than the Luton man(9).

Team	Goals Conceded	Rank
Crystal Palace	47	6th worst (joint)
Bournemouth	47	6th worst (joint)
Nottingham Forest	49	5th worst

Morris is top for shots, shots in the box, big chances, xPts, points, bonus points, goal involvements, among Luton players. So you are essentially getting Luton’s best player, with arguably the best possible fixtures at a dirt cheap price. It can’t really go wrong, can it?

Just to add the icing on the cake, Crystal Palace have conceded the second most number of big chances(41) in the league since GW15, behind only Newcastle(44).

Further Read: FPL GW28 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with DGW, BGW planning

Illia Zabarnyi vs Sheffield United(H), Luton(H), £4.4m, TSB: 1.2%

Bournemouth are the other team to have a double Gameweek this match day. With Senesi’s injury, attention of FPL managers must automatically turn to his Center Back partner- Zabarnyi.

The Ukrainian international is the only Cherries to have played 90 minutes of every single league game so far this season. Having said that, he hasn’t yet got the returns in FPL like Senesi. There is good clean sheet potential with both Sheffield and Luton not having great underlying numbers away from home.

Sheffield United and Luton Away Attack Rank:

	Sheffield United	Luton Town
Expected Goals	20th	18th
Big Chances	20th	16th
Goals Scored	20th	13th

Zabarnyi Key Stats

• 6 shots in the box, more than any other Bournemouth defender, including Senesi(5)
• Third best for baseline BPS(402), behind only Solanke(404) and Neto(465)
• Bournemouth have the third best record in the league for big chances conceded since GW15

In spite of not getting FPL points, the young Ukrainian has been putting up impressive numbers that has a potential for big haul.

Each of the above 5 teams are in the bottom nine for goals conceded from set pieces.

Team	Goals conceded from set plays	Rank
Sheffield United	9	7th worst(joint)
Luton	12	4th worst
Everton	11	5th worst
Crystal Palace	9	7th worst(joint)

Zabarnyi has not scored/assisted in his Bournemouth career so far. If indeed the Cherries man is going to score, these fixtures will be the moment. Four of Bournemouth’s six clean sheets this season have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. That too Augurs well for FPL managers looking at defenders from the South Coast side.

Eberechi Eze vs Luton(H), £6.0m, TSB: 2.8%

Eze returned from injury last time out, and how? The former Queens Park Rangers man scored a stunning free kick which gave the Eagles a lead in their 3-1 defeat at Spurs last time out.

Eze has registered 6 goals and 2 assists so far this season. The London club have a great run of fixtures coming up. For starters, their FPL GW28’s opponents Luton are by far the worst defence in the league in terms of big chances conceded.

The Hatters have conceded 90 big chances, 6 more than the hapless Sheffield United. Besides, Rob Edwards’ men have given away at least two goals in each of their last five matches. Meanwhile, Eze has registered 4 goals in his last 3 starts at home. Putting the two stats together can only mean one thing, right? A big haul to spoil Luton’s double Gameweek party!

Despite missing a lot of games, Eze has had more shots(49) than any of his teammates so far this season. Only Edouard(9) has had more big chances than the Englishman(6). Furthermore, he has the ninth best record for xPts per 90 among players priced on or below £7.0.

Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Kai Havertz vs Brentford(H), £7.1m, TSB: 2.4%

Who would have thought a couple of months back that Kai Havertz would make a possible transfer in for us FPL managers. We only hope that it isn’t one of those false dawns that he had in his Chelsea days!

The German international has registered 6 attacking returns in the last three league matches (3G 3 A), to go along with 7 points. In this period, no other has registered more FPL points than Havertz(40).

The Gunners have won each of their last seven league matches, scoring a whopping 31 goals in the process. They were well and truly the most in form team in the league.

Meanwhile, their FPL GW28 opponents Brentford have lost 11 of their last 13 matches. Only Sheffield United(33) have conceded more goals than the Bees(31) in this period. Furthermore, only Newcastle(44) and Crystal Palace(41) have given away more big chances than Thomas Frank’s men(40).

Oh, and if all the above stats weren’t enough, then know that Brentford are going to be without their entire first choice back four for their trip to the Emirates. Arsenal will be looking to continue on their goalscoring spree heading into their top of the table clash at Man City post the international break.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 28 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Anthony Elanga vs Brighton(A), £5.1m, TSB: 1.5%

Anthony Elanga is enjoying a breakout season with Nottingham Forest thus far. The former Manchester United man has got 12 attacking returns(5 goals and 7 assists). But inspite of that, he will be kicking himself that he couldn’t get himself on the scoresheet against Liverpool last time out.

Nuno’s men have arguably the best run of games among teams in the bottom half of the table, to close the season. Seven out of their remaining eleven games have an FDR rating of 2.

Elanaga is top for shots in the box(36), big chances(12), big chances created(10), and xPts among Nottingham Forest players this season. In fact, only 9 players have created more big chances in the entire league than Elanga. Elanga also has an impressive 0.79 xGI/90 over the last 4 matches- 6th Highest among all Midfielders during this time.

Elanga this season has registered 13 attacking returns from just 17 starts, with an xGI/90 of 0.43. This is more than the likes of Ross Barkley, who is a popular transfer ahead of FPL GW28.

Further Read: FPL GW28 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW28 Ultra Differential Pick (<1% ownership)

Timothy Castagne vs Wolves(A), £4.5m, TSB: 0.7%

Fulham are one of only 8 teams to have a fixture in blank Gameweek 29. So, if you are an FPL manager who is not planning to use the Free Hit chip, then Castagne is one of the players to bring in ahead of the FPL GW28 deadline.

Wolves are definitely going to be without Hwang, and Cunha. They may also be without Pedro Neto. This means their entire frontline is going to be missing as they host an in-form Fulham.

Despite getting only one attacking return so far this season, and missing a few matches through injury, Castagne has the fifth best xPts tally among Fulham players. His tally is better than someone like a Robinson’s, who has registered 5 attacking returns this season.

Since Gameweek 18, only five defenders have had more shots in the box than the Belgian international(7). In fact, this tally is third best among Fulham players in this time period. Truth be told, he is due an attacking return. He has registered 13 attacking returns in the previous three seasons in FPL (5 goals and 8 assists).

Fulham’s run of games are very promising for both clean sheets and attacking returns for the former Leicester man.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW28

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Best FPL GW28 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW28 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 28 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW28 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with DGW, BGW planning
FPL GW28 Tips – Best DGW Assets, Senesi Replacements & More
FPL Gameweek 28 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW28 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL DGW28 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW28 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 28 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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