Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, it’s a big blank gameweek with only eight teams playing which makes captaincy interesting this week. The popular FPL Gameweek 29 captain picks include Heung Min Son, Carlton Morris, Bowen, Watkins, and Toney. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Son or someone else?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 20/28 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 406 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10+12*+16*)
Link to all our FPL GW29 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW29 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW29 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Son who registered a whopping 17-point haul vs Aston Villa last week without a surprise takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with 64% of the votes. Toney is 2nd with 21% of the votes and faces Burnely at home. Watkins is 3rd on the captaincy poll facing West Ham away from home. Carlton Morris and Bowen take the 4th and 5th spots.
Watkins Injury Update after the UECL Game:
Unai Emery says Ollie Watkins only suffered a cut: “He could be available for Sunday, but it is only a cut. We will wait and see tomorrow and Saturday. “We are speaking before each match about how important Ollie Watkins is.”
Further Read: FPL GW29 Free Hit Guide – Players to Target and Best Drafts
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 29 Captain picks
Watkins takes the top spot, the Villans forward has registered 10 shots inside the box, 10 big chances, and an impressive xG of 4.33 in the last six games.
Morris is behind Watkins with an xG of 2.89, 12 shots inside the box, and 4 big chances in the last six games.
Toney is 3rd registering an xG of 1.53 in the last six games along with 4 big chances, and 9 goal attempts inside the box.
Son is 4th with two big chances in the last six games and an xG of 1.32, he has also created 12 chances in the last six games which is the highest amongst the five players.
Bowen is last amongst the five players with an xG of only 1.27 in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW29 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
The Villans have registered a healthy xG of 12.59 during the period. They have had 67 shots inside the box and 22 big chances which is also the highest highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Spurs are 2nd in the table with an xG of 10.71. The North London side are 2nd for big chances(20) in the last six games as well
Luton Town are 3rd in the table with an xG of 9.34, 59 shots inside the box, 13 big chances in the last six games.
West Ham are 4th with an xG of 7.80 and have had 9 big chances in the last six games.
Brentford are last with an xG of 7.69 which is the lowest amongst the five teams. The Bees however have registered 15 big chances in the last six games which isn’t bad considering the tough fixtures they have had recently.
Further Read: FPL GW29 Free Hit: Position Wise Players to Target | FH Active
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW29
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Spurs narrowly edge Aston Villa with a 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 31% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Aston Villa have a 77% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 25% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Brentford are also 2nd in the table and have a 77% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 25% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
West Ham are 4th in the table and have a 75% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 23% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Luton Town are last with a 73% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 20% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 29 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Son tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a 6.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 29.
Toney takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 54% and a points projection of 5.7
Watkins is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 54% and a points projection of 5.6
Bowen is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 48% and a points projection of 5.4.
Lastly, Morris finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 43% and a points projection of 4.1
Further Read: FPL GW29 Free Hit Guide – Players to Target and Best Drafts
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 29 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Watkins takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 7. Watkins is closely followed by Son who finishes with a CRF of 8. Toney takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 12. Morris takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 15. Bowen finishes last with a CRF of 17.
Do note Watkins is an injury risk, if you feel he might not start/He’s ruled out go for the remaining options in the captaincy metrics.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW29
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Best FPL GW29 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW29 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW29 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 29 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW29 Tips – Players to Target, No Free Hit Strategy & More
Top FPL Gameweek 29 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW29 Free Hit Guide – Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL GW29 Free Hit: Position Wise Players to Target | FH Active
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL GW29 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW29 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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