Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, it’s a mini double gameweek for Luton Town and Bournemouth which makes captaincy interesting this week as managers most likely look to captain a double gameweek player. The popular FPL Gameweek 28 captain picks include Haaland, Carlton Morris, Solanke, Watkins, and Saka. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be one of the two players who’ll double(Solanke/Morris), or would it be one of the big boys taking the top spot?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 18/26 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 390 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10+12*)
Link to all our FPL GW28 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW28 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW28 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Solanke who has a double gameweek this week without a surprise takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with a whopping 75% of the votes. Carlton Morris the other doubler is 2nd with 22% of the votes and faces Palace and Bournemouth away from home. Saka, Haaland, and Bowen take the 3rd, 4th, and 5th spot in the captaincy metrics this week.
Further Read: FPL GW28 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with DGW, BGW planning
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 28 Captain picks
Haaland takes the top spot, the Man City forward has registered 26 shots inside the box, 12 big chances, and an impressive xG of 4.54 in the last six games.
Saka is behind Haaland with an xG of 4.48, an impressive 19 shots inside the box, and 9 big chances in the last six games.
Solanke is 3rd registering an xG of 3.70 in the last six games along with 5 big chances, and 10 chances created.
Morris is 4th with five big chances in the last six games and xG of 3.17, he has also created 9 chances in the last six games.
Bowen is last with 10 shots inside the box, 4 chances created, 3 big chances, and an xG of 1.33 in the last six games
Further Read: Best FPL GW28 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Arsenal’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the Gunners have registered a healthy xG of 15.79 during the period. They have had 85 shots inside the box and 21 big chances which is also the highest highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Man City are 2nd in the table with an xG of 13.83. The Blues are joint top for big chances(21) in the last six games.
Luton Town are 3rd in the table with an xG of 11.97, 16 big chances, and 66 goal attempts in the box.
Bournemouth are 4th with an xG of 8.59 and have had 12 big chances in the last six games.
West Ham are last with an xG of 7.07 which is the lowest amongst the five teams.
Further Read: FPL DGW28 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW28
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Bournemouth with two home games in the double gameweek take the top spot with a 98.5% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 68.8% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Arsenal even though play only once take the second spot thanks to their brilliant run of form in the recent gameweeks. The Gunners have a 91% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
West Ham are 3rd in the table and are up against a poor Burnley side. The Hammers have a 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Luton Town are 4th in the table despite the double gameweek and have a 85.6% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 19% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Man City are last with a 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 28 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 28 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Solanke tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 78% and a 10.8 points projection in FPL Gameweek 28.
Haaland takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a points projection of 7.3
Morris is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 8.0
Saka is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 4.4.
Lastly, Bowen finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 50% and a points projection of 5.8
Further Read: Best FPL GW28 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 28 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Saka and Solanke both takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 9. Saka is ahead of Solanke in terms of individual and team attacking stats whereas Solanke is ahead of Saka in terms of favourable fixtures and projections rank ahead of FPL GW28.
The duo are closely followed by Haaland who finishes with a CRF of 10. Morris takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 14. Bowen takes the 5th and last spot with a CRF of 18.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW28
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Best FPL GW28 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW28 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 28 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW28 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with DGW, BGW planning
FPL GW28 Tips – Best DGW Assets, Senesi Replacements & More
FPL Gameweek 28 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW28 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL DGW28 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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