With the FA Cup Round 5 over and Quarter finals draw announced, we have more clarity on the Upcoming Double and Blank Gameweeks. And this is the time to go for some lower owned punts who will help you catch up ranks. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW27 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.
Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW27 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)
Rodrigo Muniz vs Brighton(H), £4.5m, TSB: 1.8%
Muniz began to start games in GW23 as a result of Jimenez injury. Muniz has scored 4 goals in 4 games since then and is the Joint leading goal scorer in the league during this time. The 22 year old Brazilian Forward has comfortably slotted in. Believe it or not, Muniz has 16 Shots inside the box since GW23 games with only Haaland(22) having more shots inside the box among all Forwards. It is to be noted that, Haaland has played an extra fixture during this time as well.
Muniz is also Top for Bonus Points(7) and 3rd Highest for FPL Points(31) among Forwards during this time.
Muniz Stats since GW23(Rank among Forwards):
- Matches– 4
- Shots– 18 (2nd)
- Shots inside the Box– 16 (2nd)
- Big Chances– 4 (Joint 4th)
- Non Penalty xG– 1.95 (5th)
- Goals– 4 (Joint 1st)
- BPS Score– 117 (2nd)
- Bonus Points– 7 (1st)
- FPL Points– 31 (3rd)
The fixture all the way till GW33 are also looking good for the Muniz and Fulham.
A 4.5 Millon Forward with these excellent numbers and a Confirmed fixture in Blank Gameweek 29 is a gift. Getting a cheap 8th attacker as a forward could enable you to play Salah+ Son+ Saka + Haaland going forward. You can bench him in weeks when you have better attackers with better fixtures and play him in games like GW29 and GW30.
Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Norberto Murara Neto vs Burnley(A), £4.6m, TSB: 3.8%
It is not often a you see a GK on the Differentials article or us suggesting a GK transfer. But the former Barcelona/Juventus man features here with 3 good fixtures in the next 2 GWs including a Home Double Gameweek in GW28 vs Sheffield United and Luton Town. After that he blanks in GW29, but the fixtures after that also look good- Everton(H), Palace(H), Luton(A). The entry point in GW27 looks good as Burnley are struggling- Winless in last 8 games, Ranked 19th for Goals scored(7), Ranked 19th for xG(7.65) since GW19.
Neto is not only just a fixture pick as he is having a good season with lots of FPL Potential(Saves and Bonus Points). Neto has 11 Bonus points this season and is joint Top along with Martinez for Bonus Points/Appearance among GKs this season as seen below.
Neto has 84 saves from 23 games this season averaging 3.65 saves/game. This does suggest that he is likely to get a save point(3 saves= 1 point) every game. Over the last 4 matches, Neto has made 18 saves which is the Joint 3rd Highest among GKs during this time.
Note: Neto blanks/does not have a fixture in GW29. So go for Neto only if you are planning on Free Hit in GW29 or have a 2nd GK who has a fixture in GW29.
Further Read: FPL GW27 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Mohammed Kudus vs Everton(A), £6.8m, TSB: 3.0%
West Ham were winless in 6 games between GW20- GW25. They did end their streak with a 4-2 win over Brentford in GW26. Not surprisingly, Paqueta missed GW20-GW25 due to injury and returned only in GW26. As seen below, West Ham are a much better side when Paqueta plays especially in attack. With all key attackers- JWP, Soucek, Bowen, Kudus, Paqueta and Antonio fit and available expect them to continue their form.
Surprising Stat: When Kudus, Paqueta and Emerson have started together, West Ham have never lost a game.
Kudus did get a assist in the 4-2 win vs Brentford in which Bowen got a hattrick. Even though Bowen carries a better goal threat(xG/90, Big Chances/90) than Kudus, Kudus is a good cheaper alternative and a Differential Pick. Kudus has outscored Bowen in Goal Involvements/90 and FPL Points/90 this season.
Kudus vs Bowen(Per 90 Stats):
- Goal Involvement- 0.70 vs 0.64
- FPL Points- 5.74 vs 5.61
West Ham have a good fixture run till GW34 including a fixture in Blank Gameweek 29.
Gabriel Martinelli vs Sheffield United(A), £7.7m, TSB: 6.0%
Arsenal have won their last 6/6 Premier League games scoring 25 goals in the process averaging more than 4 goals/game. During this run, They are Top for underlying numbers- xG and Big Chances. During these 6 games, Martinelli has 3 goals, 1 assist. His underlying numbers are also good- 3.6 xGI, 10 Shots inside the Box, 7 Big Chance Involvements, 8 Chances created. Martinelli has a better xGI, More Shots, More Big Chance Involvements over compatriots Odegaard and Havertz as seen here.
Martinelli is also ranked 3rd for xGI among Midfielders less than 8 million over the last 6 matches.
Top Midfielders(<8 million) for xGI since GW21:
- Pascal Gross- 4.4
- Luis Diaz- 4.1
- Martinelli- 3.6
- Havertz- 3.5
If you are confirmed to Free Hit in GW29, You can double very much double up on Arsenal attack with Martinelli along with Saka. Their next 2 games are really as good as it gets. They play Sheffield United and Brentford- Both teams leaking goals for fun.
- Brentford and Sheffield United are Joint Top for Goals conceded(21) since GW21
- Sheffield United have conceded 66 goals from 26 games this season- Highest in the league
- Arsenal’s GW28 opponent Brentford have conceded 25 Big Chances since GW21- Highest among all the teams during this time in the league. Their xGC of 14.02 is also the Highest in the league during this time.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
Luis Díaz vs Nottingham Forest(A), £7.5m, TSB: 9.9%
With Jota ruled out and fitness concerns for Salah and Darwin, Luiz Diaz has been the main attacker for Liverpool making thing work. Diaz has 3 goals, 3 assists from the last 5 games. Only Haaland(24) has more Shots inside the Box than Diaz(20) since GW22 and Haaland has played a game more than the Liverpool man. Diaz is also Top for Big Chances(7) among Midfielders since during this run despite not on penalties.
Not just for Big Chances, His attacking underlying numbers are right among Top among Midfielders
Luis Diaz Attack Rank among Midfielders since GW22:
- Shots on Target- 1st
- Shots inside the Box- 1st
- Big Chances- 1st
- nPxG- 1st
- Goal Involvements- 2nd
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Ross Barkley vs Aston Villa(H), £5.0m, TSB: 1.7%
Luton Town are the only team to Double in GW28 and also not blank in GW29. Barkley is the chief creator behind all the Luton attacks. In the midweek FA cup game vs Man City despite losing 6-2, Barkley had a good game, got both the assists and should have scored as well. In the league, Barkey has 32 shots, 3 goals, 4 assists from the last 12 games which are good numbers for a 5.0 Budget Midfielder/8th attacker.
Key Stat: Since GW21, Ross Barkey has a created 22 chances- Joint Top in the league along with Pascal Gross and Odegaard.
If you are on No-Free Hit GW29 gang, There are not great excuses to look beyond Ross Barkey as a Budget Differential mid with this amazing fixture run.
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW27 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW27 Tips – Hwang Replacements, DGW28 Planning & More
FPL GW27 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with DGW, BGW planning
Top FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW27 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW27 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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Srinivasan S
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