Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, Haaland scored five goals vs Luton in the FA Cup game midweek and will be playing in the Manchester derby, whereas last week’s metrics topper Saka plays Sheffield at home which has made captaincy interesting this week. The popular FPL Gameweek 27 captain picks include Haaland, Son, Solanke*, Watkins, and Saka. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Saka, or would it be someone else taking the top spot?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 18/26 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 378 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10)
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FPL GW27 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW27 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Saka who topped the captaincy metrics last week without a surprise takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with a whopping 43% of the votes ahead of facing Sheffield United at home. Haaland is 2nd with 32% of the votes and faces Man United at home. Watkins is 3rd on the captaincy poll with 10% of the votes. Solanke and Heung Min Son take the 4th and 5th spots. Note: Solanke is an injury doubt at the moment after missing the midweek game due to a knee problem
Andoni Iraola on the absence of Dominic Solanke last night. ‘He had some issues in the knee. It doesn’t look very big, but he wasn’t ready to be involved. We did an MRI [on Tuesday], so we have to see what he has. We hoped that he could be on the bench. But we assessed him at the last moment and he wasn’t feel well.’
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 27 Captain picks
Watkins takes the top spot, the Villans forward has registered 20 shots inside the box, 9 big chances, and an impressive xG of 4.54 in the last six games. Finishing above Haaland in this table is in itself a special feat!
Haaland is behind Watkins with an xG of 4.44 and an impressive 24 shots inside the box, and 9 big chances in the last six games.
Saka is 3rd registering an xG of 4.35 in the last six games along with 6 big chances, and 13 chances created.
Solanke is 4th with five big chances in the last six games and xG of 3.56, he has also created 9 chances in the last six games.
Heung Min Son who has been a bit silent since returning from the Asian cup is last with an xG of 1.08 in the last six games.
Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Arsenal’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the gunners have registered a healthy xG of 16.70 during the period. They have had 81 shots inside the box and 24 big chances which is also the highest highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Aston Villa are 2nd in the table with an xG of 12.52. The Villans are 2nd for big chances(22) in the last six games.
Man City are 3rd in the table with an xG of 12.26. The Blues are 1st for shots inside the box(82) in the last six games.
Spurs are 4th with an xG of 10.80 and have had 15 big chances in the last six games.
Bournemouth are last with an xG of 8.83 which is the lowest amongst the five teams.
Further Read: FPL GW27 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW27
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal narrowly edge Man City with a 92% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 58% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Man City have a 92% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Spurs are 3rd in the table and have a 87% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Aston Villa are 4th in the table and have a 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Bournemouth are last with a 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 77% and a 78.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 26.
Son takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 6.9
Saka is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 57% and a points projection of 6.0
Watkins is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 45% and a points projection of 5.5.
Lastly, Solanke finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 49% and a points projection of 4.1
Further Read: Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 27 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Saka and Haaland both takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 8. Haaland is ahead of Saka in terms of individual attacking stats and projections for GW27 whereas Saka is ahead of Haaland in terms of team attacking stats and favourable fixture rank ahead of FPL GW27.
The duo are closely followed by Watkins who finishes with a CRF of 11. Son takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 14. Solanke takes the 5th and last spot with a CRF of 19.
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW27 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW27 Tips – Hwang Replacements, DGW28 Planning & More
FPL GW27 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with DGW, BGW planning
Top FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW27 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW27 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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