Top FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, the double gameweek ahead of us has made captaincy interesting this week as many managers are considering using their triple captain chip this week. The popular FPL Gameweek 25 captain picks include Haaland, Jota, Darwin Nunez, and Kevin Be Bruyne. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland, or would it be one of the Liverpool boys taking the top spot?

The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

This season the metrics has a 16/24 returns record

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Total metrics points: 368 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12)

Link to all our FPL GW25 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW25 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW25 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Haaland scored twice in the 2nd half vs Everton in GW24 and without a surprise, he takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with a whopping 78% of the votes. Diogo Jota is 2nd on the captaincy poll with just 7% of the votes. Kevin De Bruyne is 3rd with 25 votes. Darwin and Foden take the 4th and 5th spots with 19 and 13 votes respectively.

Further Read: Best Differential Picks for FPL DGW25(<10% TSB)

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 25 Captain picks

Darwin takes the top spot, the Liverpool forward has registered 22 shots inside the box, 8 big chances, and an impressive xG of 4.97 in the last six games. Finishing above Haaland in this table is in itself a special feat!

Haaland is behind Darwin with an xG of 3.69 and an impressive 20 shots inside the box, and 7 big chances in the last six games.

Foden is 3rd registering an xG of 1.92 in the last six games along with 2 big chances, and 17 chances created.

Jota is 4th with two big chances in the last six games and xG of 1.13, he has also created 7 chances in the last six games.

De Bruyne is last with only an xG of 0.61 in the last six games. Do note: KDB’ last six games data include last season’s data as he has appeared only five times this season. His numbers are understandably lower because in his last six matches(End of 22/23 & 23/24), he has played only 295 minutes(An average of only 49 mins per game). Despite this, he has created 11 chances and registered an xA of 1.38 which reiterates the fact that he’s an elite chance creator with a knack of scoring crucial goals

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 25 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Liverpool’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the reds have registered a healthy xG of 16.64 during the period. They have had 84 shots inside the box and 23 big chances which is also the highest highest amongst the five teams in the table.

Man City are 3rd in the table with an xG of 13.28. The Blues are second for big chances(15) in the last six games. Since there are two Liverpool assets Man City take the 3rd rank!

Further Read: Teams & Players to Target for FPL DGW25 | Double Gameweek 25

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW25

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. 

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole. 

• Liverpool have an 87% odds of scoring a goal in the first game and a 93% odds of scoring a goal in the 2nd game.
• Man City have a 90% odds of scoring a goal in the first game and 92% odds of scoring a goal in the 2nd game.
• Liverpool have a 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the first game and 60% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the second game.
• Man City have a 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the first game and a 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the second game.

A double gameweek meant the combined odds for Man City & Liverpool were always going to be high and the gap is very tight at the top with Man City having a 99.2% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 77.5% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the gameweek. Liverpool is very close behind with a 99.1% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 76% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the gameweek.

Further Read: FPL GW25 Tips – Players to Target, DGW/BGW Planning & More

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

Haaland tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 94% and a 17.2 points projection in FPL Gameweek 24.

Haaland’s teammate KDB takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 87% and a points projection of 12.2

Darwin is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 85% and a points projection of 11.4

Jota is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 77% and a points projection of 10.7.

Lastly, Phil Foden finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 71% and a points projection of 10.4

Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 25 Captaincy metrics

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric. 

Haaland takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 7. He’s closely followed by KDB and Darwin both of them finish with a CRF of 9. Phil Foden is fourth with a CRF of 12. Jota takes the 5th and last spot with a CRF of 13.

Before you leave⬇️🙏🏻

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL DGW25

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Top FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW25 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
FPL GW25 Tips – Players to Target, DGW/BGW Planning & More
Best Differential Picks for FPL DGW25(<10% TSB)
FPL Gameweek 25 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
Teams & Players to Target for FPL DGW25 | Double Gameweek 25
FPL GW25 Free Hit Guide- Players To Target And Best Drafts
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW25 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW25 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 25 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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