Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The festive period fixtures are in full swing which means we are fast approaching another FPL deadline soon. As always let’s have a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW20 Deadline.

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW20 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Richarlison vs Bournemouth(H), £6.8m, TSB: 5.4%

Richarlison has been a different player since his full return from injury in GW16 playing as a striker. He has scored 4 goals from the last 4 games and was unlucky not to score in GW19 vs Brighton as well as he hit the post. Over these 4 games, Richarlison has scored 33 FPL Points- Highest in the league among all the players.

Not just Big Chances, all the attacking metrics looks really good for Richarlison as seen below. He is ranked 2nd for xG among Midfielders during this time.

Richarlison Attack Rank among Midfielders since his full return from injury(GW16):

• Big Chances- Joint 1st
• xG- 2nd
• Shots on Target- Joint 3rd
• Goals- 1st
• FPL Points- 1st

Over the last 4 matches, Spurs are also ranked 1st for Big Chances, 2nd for xG and 1st for Goals scored. Richarlison is a gift at just 6.8 million playing central for this attacking Spurs side. All the FPL Managers will soon be on the Richarlison train after Son and Salah leave for national duties. But it is your time to get ahead of the curve. With Maddison injured, Richarlison could also be on penalties when Son leaves for National duty.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, WC Structure + More

Malo Gusto vs Luton(A), £4.1m, TSB: 5.4%

It has been just 2 weeks since Gusto has returned from injury and he is already becoming a interesting FPL option at his price point. Gusto got an assist in the 2-1 win over Crystal Palace in GW19. Over the last 2 games, Gusto has an xA of 0.63 which is the Highest among all Defenders during this time- Better than the likes of TAA, Porro, Trippier, etc.

Even though it is a small sample space, the upcoming fixtures also look good for Chelsea and Gusto. At 4.1 million Gusto is a good enabler who you can bench for the difficult fixtures.

Matchup alert: Luton Town have conceded 78 crosses from their left zone over the last 6 games which is the 2nd Highest among all the teams in the league. Don’t be surprised to see another Gusto assist in GW20!

Last time when Gusto played against Luton Town(GW3)- Gusto got 2 assists, Clean sheet, 2 bonus points to fetch a monster 14 point haul.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target

Leon Bailey vs Burnley(H), £5.6m, TSB: 3.4%

Although Aston Villa have failed to win each of their last two encounters, Leon Bailey has been one of their better players. Having had a goal chalked off in GW18 amidst debatable circumstances, Bailey forced Onana into making an important save in GW19. On another day, he could have scored in both of those games.

After playing 4 of the traditional big 6 in the last 7 matches, Villa head into a very good run of fixtures. Eight of the next twelve fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Three of the other four are at home. Any player you bring in from the Villains is a solid 12 week hold!

Since Gameweek 9, Bailey(7) is joint top for goal involvements along with Watkins among Villa players. The Jamaican is second best for shots in the box and shots, joint top for big chances created(4), and top for assists(4), among his compatriots, in this period. Bailey is also top for goal involvements per 90 among midfielders in the aforementioned timeframe.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Matheus Cunha vs Everton(H), £5.8m, TSB: 6.3%

Cunha has been one of the standout players for Wolves this season, along with Hwang and Neto. The former Atletico Madrid man has registered 5 goals and 4 assists so far this season.

The Brazilian has got an attacking return in 6 of the last 8 matches(3G 3A). He has done so in three of his last four home matches. Three of the next five games are at home for the Black Country side.

Cunha is top for shots and shots in the box among Wolves players. He is second only to Hwang for big chances, xPts and xG so far. Besides, in the impending absence of the Korean, the onus is on the Brazilian to come up trumps for Gary O’Neil’s men!

Cunha is a great budget enabler as a third forward for those who are on a wildcard. He has played 90 minutes in 4 of the last 6 matches. He might be on pens too, in the absence of Hwang. Besides, he is sixth best in the league among forwards for goal involvements(9), and shots(44). He is at least £1.1 cheaper than everyone else above him in the list.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Transfer Targets and Watchlist

Paul Van Hecke vs West Ham(A), £4.0m, TSB: 2.0%

Gameweek 20 is the last week to play the first wildcard, if you have it up your sleeve still. Paul Van Hecke is our differential pick for the fourth or fifth defender slot in your squads.

The Brighton Centre back has started every game since GW11 and has played 90 mins in each one of them. He is the only player to have been rotation proof in this period.

The Dutchman has had 7 shots in the box in this period. Only 4 other Brighton players have had more. For context, this tally is the same as that of Gross. In fact, in the entire league, only Porro(13), Van Dijk(13), and Gabriel(8) have had more shots in the box than Van Hecke, in that time. He hit the woodwork last night as well, against Spurs.

De Zerbi’s men have an amazing run of games coming up. Although they have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season, stats suggest that they have been unfortunate. They are only 10th worst in the league for big chances conceded, and have xCS of 4.22, which is more than the likes of Man Utd and Spurs, who have kept 6 and 5 clean sheets, respectively.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW20(<1% TSB):

Alex Moreno vs Burnley(H), £5.0m, TSB: 0.8%

Alex Moreno has been hard hit by injuries so far this campaign. The Spaniard has started only one game so far in the league. He did however score in that game and registered a 10 point haul in that fixture.

Despite coming to the club only in January, Moreno was top for shots(13) among defenders for Villa. He was top for xA among Villa defenders, and second only to Konsa(8) for shots in the box, across the season.

The former Real Betis man was fourth best in the league among defenders for xA(2.57), and eighth best for points(72), since he made his debut.

"Lucas Digne is injured and he will be out for the team for some weeks"

"We are playing very good, but we have to try now and replace him with Moreno after a long injury. I think Moreno is ready and it will be 20 to 25 days for Digne."#FPL pic.twitter.com/P5L6JTbBdk

— ALLABOUTFPL (@allaboutfpl) December 29, 2023

Now that Lucas Digne is out injured, Moreno is going to get a run of games in the side. If he can perform the way he did last season, he might well become first choice left back again. Regardless, the Spaniard is too good an explosive option to ignore from an FPL perspective!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20

Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW20 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, WC Structure + More
FPL GW20 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW20 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 20 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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