Top FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The festive period fixtures are in full swing which means we are fast approaching another FPL deadline soon. As always let’s have a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW19 Deadline. Reminder the deadline is at 11:00 AM on 26th December!

Link to all our FPL GW19 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW19 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Pascal Gross vs Spurs(H), £6.4m, TSB: 3.4%

Pascal Gross has been the main creative force for a Brighton side who have been defensively poor, but still good attack-wise this season. Brighton have managed to score at least 1 goal in 17 out of 18 league games this season. In GW18 vs Palace, Gross has created 6 chances which is the Highest among all players for Gameweek 18. Gross has 5 assists(Highest in the league) and one goal from the last 6 matches.

Pascal Gross Stats since GW13(Rank among Midfielders)

• xGI- 3.5(Joint 1st)
• Chances created- 25(1st)
• xA- 2.17(2nd)
• Assists- 5(1st)
• Bonus Points- 7(2nd)
• FPL Points- 36(Joint 3rd)

Not just since GW13, Gross chance creation has been elite this season as seen below.

Most Chances Created(Per 90 minutes) this season:

• Maddison- 3.14
• Gross- 3.08
• Trippier- 3.03
• Trent Alexander Arnold- 2.93
• Bruno Fernandes- 2.88

Brighton have an excellent run of fixtures coming up from GW19-GW17 with no fixtures against teams with FDR 4 or 5. Their GW19 opponent Spurs have conceded the most Big chances(23) and have the worst xGC(13.77) in the league since GW12.

Neal Maupay vs Wolves(H), £4.9m, TSB:1.2%

Brentford have an advantage over all the other teams in the league as they have had a solid 10 day break in this busy festive period. That means we could potentially expect less rotation from Thomas Frank when compared to his counterparts.

Maupay has started four of the seven last matches for Brentford. He has played 90 minutes in each of those matches. There’s a pattern to when he starts matches. They are against teams that have an FDR rating of 2.

The former Brighton man has started each of the last five matches against such teams. Guess what, four of the next six, and each of the next three games for the Bees are against these opponents. Furthermore, three of his four attacking returns have come at home. Two of the next three matches for Brentford are at home.

As we can see, Maupay is second best only to Mbeumo for shots in the box and big chances among the Bees’ player since Gameweek 9. Furthermore, each of their next three opponents- Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace conceded goals to opposition strikers in the GW just passed by. Maupay might well follow suit!

Christopher Nkunku vs Crystal Palace(H), TSB: 2.1%, £7.3m

Nkunku made his first PL appearance against Wolves after recovering from the injury he sustained during pre-season. The Chelsea attacker was impressive in the 30 minutes he was on the pitch scoring a late goal to open his PL tally.

Nkunku stats vs Wolves

• Shots: 4
• Shots on Target: 3
• Shots inside the box: 4
• Big chances: 1
• xG: 0.83
• Goals: 1
• BPS: 27
• Bonus: 2

Nkunku returning to full fitness coincides with a good run of fixtures for Chelsea and the Chelsea forward could be amongst the returns soon. The one-game suspension for Palmer and Sterling means Nkunku could be gearing up for his first PL start!

Pochettino after the Wolves game: “I’m very pleased to see Nkunku score, it shows how important he can be for us”. “We cannot put too much pressure on him but a quality player who can score goals”. “We are very confident in him to get to his best and be a key player for us”.

Jack Grealish vs Everton(A), £7.2m, TSB: 1.8%

Grealish has scored 3 goals in his last 3 Premier League games playing a slightly more central role than the wide byline hogging position. Even with just 218 minutes over the last 3 games, Grealish has good underlying numbers from these games- 2.1 xGI, 4 Big Chance Involvements(3 Big Chances, 1 Big Chance created). With injuries to Doku and Haaland and no clear return date on either of them, Grealish’s minutes shouldn’t be a concern for the upcoming weeks.

Grealish and Manchester City have a great run of fixtures coming up from GW19 with also a potential Double Gameweek announcement incoming. Grealish could be a decent punt for the upcoming weeks.

FPL GW19 Ultra-Differential Picks(<=1% TSB)

Alfie Doughty vs Sheffield United(A), £4.4m, TSB: 0.4%

Alfie Doughty has been one of the standout players for the ever improving Luton Town this season. The fullback has registered 42 FPL points so far, second only to Morris(55) among the Hatters.

The newly promoted club had been putting on some impressive performances against the likes of Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal, and were unlucky to lose two of those games. However, they finally turned performance into a result as they beat Newcastle by 1-0 last time out.

Doughty registered 9 points in that fixture. It was from his corner that the goal came about for Rob Edwards’ men. Three of Luton’s next six fixtures have an FDR rating of 2.

Alfie Doughty Key Stats

• Doughty is seventh best in the league among defenders for bonus points(8).
• Third best in the league for key passes(30) among defenders.
• Sheffield United joint fourth worst in the league for goals conceded from set plays
• Second best in the league for successful crosses, behind only Trippier, among defenders

Michael Olise vs Chelsea(A), TSB: 0.5%, £5.8m

Olise has played a key role after returning to the Palace playing 11 after a long injury layoff. Since GW13(Olise’s first start in the PL this season) he has picked up 2 goals and an assist. Eze also returned from injury vs Brighton which further improves the Palace attack going forward.

He is 5th amongst midfielders for xGI(3.3) in the last six games and has created 16 chances and 4 big chances. Against Chelsea, Olise has a great matchup with the Blues conceding more chances through their right flank(59) than their central(41) and left flank(51)

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW19

Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL Gameweek 19 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW19 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW19 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW19 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW19 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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