Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

It feels good to have a week off in FPL after three gruelling GWs. Having said that, the problems seem to have escalated that much more. Never before have we witnessed as many key assets being injury doubts, injured, or suspended. Now is the time to break away from the template and take a few calculated risks. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider for FPL GW17 who may be that player to provide rewards that match the risk!

Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW17 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Pau Torres vs Brentford(A), £4.7m, TSB: 6.0%

Aston Villa have produced two eye-catching results in the last two Gameweeks. Unai Emery’s men beat both Man City and Arsenal by 1-0. When a team can shut out two of the best teams in the league, their defenders become top priority in FPL.

Villa’s fixtures are very good all the way till Gameweek 30. Eight of their next fourteen games have an FDR rating of 2. Only two matches have an FDR rating above 3. More clean sheets therefore are on the horizon!

Pau Torres is top for BPS among Aston Villa defenders this season. The Spaniard has been unlucky not to get more than his tally of 4 bonus points. Besides, the former Villarreal man has the second best tally among defenders in the league for big chances (4), behind only his teammate Matty Cash (5).

Meanwhile, Villa’s FPL GW17 opponents Brentford have scored 23 goals so far this season. 17 of them have been contributed by Jensen and Mbeumo in one way or another. Both of them are likely to miss the fixture this weekend.

Furthermore, Ajer- who has created the second most number of big chances (4), behind Jensen (5) for the Bees is also set to miss the match due to injury. As a result of these factors, the chances of Aston Villa keeping a clean sheet is very high!

Further Read: FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Marcos Senesi vs Luton(H), £4.4m, TSB: 2.0%

Bournemouth produced the standout result last time out by beating Manchester United by 3-0, at Old Trafford. Senesi scored one of the goals, registering a 15 point haul in FPL. This was preceded by a 14 point haul in the game against Crystal Palace.

The Cherries have a very good run of games coming up. Five of their next eight have an FDR rating of 2. The South Coast side have kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 matches. In this period, they have only dropped points once. Essentially, Andoni Iraola’s men are one of the most in form teams in the league!

Overall, Senesi has already registered 3 attacking returns this season(2 G 1 A). Last season as well, he was top for shots in the box and big chances among Bournemouth defenders, scoring 2 goals in the process.

Team	Goals conceded from set plays	Rank	Shots conceded from set plays	Rank
Luton	7	19th (joint)	78	20th
Nottingham Forest*	8	20th	61	12th
Fulham *	1	1st	59	10th
Liverpool	3	5th (joint)	60	11th
Spurs	2	2nd (joint)	67	15th
West Ham	4	8th (joint)	77	19th

As we can see from the above table, most of the upcoming games for Bournemouth are against teams susceptible from set pieces. Most notably, Luton and Nottingham Forest, who are the second worst and worst in the league for goals conceded from set pieces, respectively. The next two matches for the Cherries are against these two teams.

Further Read: FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Richarlison vs Nottingham Forest(A), £6.6m, TSB: 1.4%

Richarlison was the second highest points scorer in Gameweek 16, as he registered 2 goals, 2 bonus points in his 15 point haul against Newcastle. Incidentally, those 2 goals were the first and second with his feet in his Spurs career.

Richarlison underlying numbers in GW16 (Rank among all players in GW16):

• Shots in the box – 5(joint 1st)
• Big chances– 2(joint 1st)
• xG– 0.71(8th)
• Bonus Points system score– 46(2nd)

The key to these stats was the fact that the Brazilian played as the striker, with Son moving to the left. This meant that both players were more effective in the grand scheme of things.

Richarlison was in good form prior to his injury spell. The former Everton man had registered 4 attacking returns (1 G 3 A) in his last 6 appearances before his time on the sidelines. Now that he is back fit and firing, more hauls could be round the corner!

Spurs’ opponent Nottingham Forest are third worst in the league for % of chances down the centre, with 57%. Steve Cooper’s men also have conceded the second most number of goals(13) in the last 5 Gameweeks, behind only Chelsea(14).

Further Read: FPL GW17 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Matheus Cunha vs West Ham (A), £5.7m, TSB: 5.1%

Matheus Cunha scored and registered a 9 point haul last time out against Nottingham Forest. He now has got an attacking return in each of his last 5 appearances(3 G 2 A). In fact, he has registered an attacking return in 7 of his last 10 matches(4 G 3 A).

Incidentally, 4 of Cunha’s 5 goals this season have come on the road. Three of Wolves’ next five games are away from home, starting with West Ham (A) in FPL GW17.

Cunha is top for xPts among Wolves players this season. He is also top for that tally among forwards priced on or below £6.5. He has also had more shots, shots in the box, and BPS than any of his compatriots.

Meanwhile, Wolves’ opposition West Ham were hammered 5-0 last time out (no pun intended). David Moyes’ men are fourth worst in the league for both big chances and goals conceded. Cunha and co may pile on more misery on the hammers.

Further Read: FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Abdoulaye Doucouré vs Burnley, £5.6m, TSB: 1.9%

Everton have been one of the standout teams in the league this season. In spite of a 10 point deduction, they are 4 points off the relegation zone, and would have been 9th in the league without the deduction.

Leading the charge for the Toffees this season is Abdoulaye Doucouré. The former Watford man is the top scorer for Everton this season, with 6 goals. He has scored in each of his last two matches. In fact, since Sean Dyche took the helm, no Everton player has registered more goals(11) than the Frenchman.

We would consider Doucouré as a goldmine of an asset that no one ever seems to buy. The Everton man has the fourth best record in the league for big chances(11) among midfielders. Bearing in mind two of them above him have taken several penalties so far. His tally of 75 points is 8th best among midfielders. And yet he is still owned by <2% of managers.

Maybe, that is because of the perception of Everton as a team and Dyche as a coach. The Merseyside club has created 42 big chances so far this season, the eighth best in the league.

To put it in context, both Aston Villa and Spurs have created 43 big chances. Therefore, they are right up there with the so-called best attacking sides in the league.

Further Read: FPL GW17 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW17 Ultra Differential Pick ( <1% ownership)

Marcus Tavernier vs Luton(H), £5.4m, TSB: 0.8%

Tavernier ended up getting a 9 point haul in Bournemouth’s 3-0 win at Man Utd, as he registered 2 assists in that match. The midfielder now has 5(2 G 3 A) attacking returns in all this season. 4 (2G 2A) of those returns have come in the last 4 matches.

Since Gameweek 10, Tavernie(31.65) has the second best tally for xPts among Bournemouth assets, behind only Solanke(38.76). In fact, he is tenth in the league among midfielders for that tally in this period.

The Cherries’ FPL GW17 opponents Luton Town have a clear weakness down the right zone of their defence. No team has conceded more chances(73) through that flank than the Hatters. As we know, that is exactly where Tavernier operates.

Key stats of Cherries’ upcoming opponents

• Luton have conceded more big chances than any other team since GW10
• Nottingham Forest have conceded 16 goals in that period, the third worst tally in the league
• Fulham are sixth worst in the league for big chances conceded
• Spurs have conceded the second most number of big chances since GW10
• West Ham are fourth worst in the league for big chances conceded

There are attacking returns aplenty on offer for Bournemouth players in the upcoming games. Therefore, now is the time to pile up on their assets. Solanke is definitely the best asset. However, if you don’t have the funds and/or looking for a midfielder instead, Tavernier is a fabulous alternative!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW17

FPL GW17 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 17 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 17 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW17 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW17 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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