Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week there is no Haaland to consider in the captaincy metrics due to Man City blanking. The popular FPL Gameweek 18 captain picks include Salah, Son, Solanke, Son and Watkins. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Salah or would Watkins take the top spot?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 12/17 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 272 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6)
Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW18 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW18 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Watkins comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 18 with 59% of the votes. Son is second in the captaincy poll with 13% of the votes. Salah comes 3rd with 8% of the votes, Trippier & Solanke wrap up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 18 Captain picks
Solanke tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 21 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 4.79, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Watkins comes in behind Solanke for Underlying Numbers. With 15 Shots Inside the Box, 4 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 3.46 over the last 6 matches.
Salah comes in third with 14 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big Chances, and an xG total of 2.92. He however has the highest number of chances created(16) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Son is fourth in terms of xG(1.86) with 10 shots inside the box & 4 big chances in the last six games.
Trippier takes the last spot with his xG being the least amongst the five players as he’s more of an assist threat than a goal threat. He has the 2nd highest number of chances created(14) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Newcastle United have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 58 Shots Inside the Box and 21 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 12.11, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Bournemouth are behind Newcastle and take the second spot with 67 Shots Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 11.61.
Spurs come behind Bournemouth at 3rd with 67 Shots Inside the Box, 16 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.67.
Aston Villa come behind Spurs at 4th with 49 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.90.
Surprisingly, Liverpool take the last spot with just 67 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.82
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW18
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Watkins take the first spot with a 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 55% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Spurs with a 83% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 33% chance of scoring more than 2 goals
Newcastle have an 82% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 31% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 3rd rank.
Liverpool have a 75% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 22% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 4th rank.
Bournemouth have a 71% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and an 18% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the last rank.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Heung Min Son has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 65% which is the highest amongst all players, while his Projected Points stand at 7.3 for the week putting him first in the table
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projection at 62%, and the Projected Points at 6.5 this week, giving him the 2nd rank
Trippier has an Anytime Returns Projections at 58% and Projected Points at 4.7, which puts him joint 3rd in this table.
Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections at 57% and Projected Points at 5.9, which puts him joint 3rd in this table with Trippier.
Lastly, Solanke has an Anytime Returns Projections of 40% while the Projected Points stand at 4.4 which puts him last in this table.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 18 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Watkins and Son are joint top in the metrics with a CRF of 10(Cumulative Rank Factor), Watkins has the top spot in the favourable fixture rank whereas Son tops the points projection!
Trippier is 3rd with a CRF of 12. Solanke and Salah finish fourth and last respectively with a CRF of 13 and 14.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW18 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW18 Free Hit Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
FPL GW18 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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