Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be slightly tricky with no clarity on the availability of Haaland who missed GW16 due to an injury. Outside Haaland the other FPL Gameweek 17 Captain Picks include the likes of Salah, Son, Solanke, Son and Watkins. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again on top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 11/15 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 266 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26)
Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW17 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW17 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 17 with 48% of the votes. Son is second in the captaincy poll with 25% of the votes after his 17 points haul in GW16. Solanke who is in excellent form comes 3rd with 7% of the votes, he makes his captaincy metrics debut. Haaland who is an injury doubt and Watkins wrap up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 17 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 17 Captain picks
Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 23 Shots Inside the Box, 13 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 6.59, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Solanke comes in behind Haaland for Underlying Numbers. With 21 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 4.79 over the last 6 matches.
Watkins comes in third with 16 Shots Inside the Box, 4 Big Chances, and an xG total of 3.49.
Salah is fourth in terms of xG(3.16) with 13 shots inside the box & 7 big chances in the last six games. He however has the highest number of chances created(14) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Son with 9 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big chances, and an xG total of 1.75, takes the last spot.
Further Read: FPL GW17 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Bournemouth have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 67 Shots Inside the Box and 17 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 11.61, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Manchester City are behind Bournemouth and take the second spot with 60 Shots Inside the Box, 19 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 11.02.
Liverpool come behind Man City at 3th with 63 Shots Inside the Box, 20 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.28.
Spurs come behind Liverpool at 4th with 61 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.98.
Surprisingly, Aston Villa take the last spot with just 52 Shots Inside the Box, 13 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.71
Further Read: Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW17
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City & Liverpool take the first spot with a 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 56% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Bournemouth are behind Man City/Liverpool with a 86% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 38% chance of scoring more than 2 goals
Spurs have an 83% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 33% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 4th rank.
Aston Villa have a 78% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 25% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 5th rank.
Further Read: FPL GW17 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 17 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 72% which is the highest amongst all players, while his Projected Points stand at 2.3 for the week putting him last. His overall rank is 3rd in this table
Haaland’s projections are lesser than expected due to the injury concern around him at the moment, his xMins has been projected at 23 mins which reduces his projected points whereas all the other assets are projected to play more minutes boosting their projected points.
Latest on Haaland Injury(15/12/2023 Press Conference):
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projection at 64%, and the Projected Points at 6.9 this week, giving him the highest spot.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projections at 59% and Projected Points at 6.5, which puts him 2nd in this table.
Solanke has an Anytime Returns Projections at 47% and Projected Points at 4.9, which puts him 4th in this table.
Lastly, Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections of 45% while the Projected Points stand at 4.8 which puts him last in this table.
Further Read: FPL GW17 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 17 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a CRF of 7(Cumulative Rank Factor) finishing above Salah who ended up with a CRF of 9.
Solanke is 3rd with a CRF of 10. Son and Saka finish fourth and last respectively with a CRF of 15 and 18.
Note: At the time of writing there was no clarity on Haaland’s availability. Since it’s a Friday evening deadline we don’t have enough time to update the blog before the deadline. Incase if Haaland is a major doubt or ruled out based on the press conference update consider the other options as per the order in the final table(Salah, Solanke, Son, Watkins)
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW17
FPL GW17 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 17 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 17 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW17 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW17 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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