Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be between Haaland and Salah with Haaland playing Luton Town(A) whereas Liverpool have Crystal Palace(A). The other FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks include the likes of Palmer, Saka, and Son. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again on top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 11/15 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 240 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4)
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FPL GW16 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW16 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 16 with 75% of the votes. Haaland is second in the captaincy poll with 13% of the votes. Son, Palmer, and Saka wrap up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 16 Captain picks
Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 23 Shots Inside the Box, 13 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 6.59, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Salah comes in behind Haaland for Underlying Numbers. With 11 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 3.65 over the last 6 matches. He’s second for chances created with 15 chances created in the last six games
Palmer comes in third with 6 Shots Inside the Box, 4 Big Chances, and an xG total of 2.68.
Son with 7 Shots Inside the Box, 2 Big chances, and an xG total of 1.50, takes the fourth spot.
Saka who has been relatively silent in the league over the past few games is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(0.59) with just 7 shots inside the box in the last six games. He however has the highest number of chances created(16) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Man City have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 63 Shots Inside the Box and 23 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 13.40, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Chelsea are behind Manchester City and take the second spot with 55 Shots Inside the Box, 23 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 13.25.
Liverpool come behind Chelsea at 3th with 64 Shots Inside the Box, 22 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 12.23.
Arsenal come behind Chelsea at 4th with 68 Shots Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 12.10.
Surprisingly, Spurs take the last spot with just 47 Shots Inside the Box, 9 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 7.25
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW16
Man City take the first spot with a 93% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 60% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Liverpool are behind Man City with a 86% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 38% chance of scoring more than 2 goals
Spurs have an 80% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 29% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 3rd rank.
Arsenal have a 78% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 25% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 4th rank.
Chelsea have a 75% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 23% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the 5th rank.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 74%, while his Projected Points stand at 8.3 for the week giving him first spot.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projection at 61%, and the Projected Points at 6.8 this week, giving him the joint second spot.
Son’s projections are lesser than expected due to the slight injury concern around him at the moment, his xMins has been projected at 68 mins which reduces his projected points whereas all the other assets are projected to play more minutes boosting their projected points.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projections at 59% and Projected Points at 6.2, which puts him joint 2nd in this table.
Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections at 49% and Projected Points at 5.4, which puts him joint 4th in this table.
Lastly, Palmer has an Anytime Returns Projections of 46% while the Projected Points stand at 4.7 which puts him last in this table.
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 16 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a CRF of 4, which is the lowest possible Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF) finishing above Salah who ended up with a CRF of 9.
Son is 3rd with a CRF of 14. Palmer and Saka finish fourth and last respectively with a CRF of 15 and 17.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW16
FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW16 Injury News & Press Conference Updates Of All Teams
FPL GW16 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW16 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, Defenders + More
Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW16 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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