Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

With a quick turnaround for Gameweek 16, it is important to break away from the template with some lower-owned punts to catch up the ranks. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider not just for FPL GW16 but also in the long term!

Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW16 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Mohammed Kudus vs Fulham(A), £6.6m, TSB: 3.5%

Kudus has been one of the standout summer signings in the Premier League and has adapted to the life in Premier League with ease. The Hammers attacker has registered 2 goals and 3 assists in the last five games.

Until the Spurs game, Kudus was operating either on the right wing or off the striker but against Spurs Bowen played from the right wing and Kudus played up top to good effect. It remains to be seen if this trend will continue or not with Moyes adding the below about Bowen

David Moyes on Jarrod Bowen “He can play the centre-forward position as well. Jarrod has always scored goals. He’s scored a lot of goals coming off wide areas, but I think he has showed he can play centrally as well. There are games we will play him wide and there are games where we will play him as a centre-forward.”

Matchup: Whoever starts from the middle has an excellent matchup against Fulham who have now conceded more chances through the middle(47) than the flanks, left(42) and right(36) so far this season

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Alejandro Garnacho vs Bournemouth(H), £4.7m, TSB: 2.4%

Garnacho has started the last five games for Man United and completed 90 minutes in three of those games, he’s played a crucial role in the improvement of Man United’s league form in the last few games.

Rashford has been completely out of form and it is expected that Garnacho will continue to start from the LW, the return of Luke Shaw has further given Garnacho the freedom to be a bit more attacking as well. His heatmap from the Chelsea game shows his attacking involvement in the game!

The young Argentinian star had 14 touches in the box against Chelsea(highest in the game) and had 8 shots(Again highest in the game). Bournemouth have conceded a whopping 58 chances through their left flank which is the 3rd highest in the League & this is exactly where Garnacho operates.

In seven away games so far this season the Cherries have conceded 18 goals which is the 2nd worst in the League with only Sheffield United conceding more in away games so far this season

He is a low-risk punt during the festive period costing only £4.7 Million

Further Read: FPL GW16 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, Defenders + More

Ruben Dias vs Luton Town(A), £5.5m, TSB: 7.1%

Yes, Manchester City have not kept a clean sheet in last 5 games. But it is to be noted that their run of fixtures during this time was really difficult as they played Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Villa during this run. They are winless in their last 4 games in the league and Pep would need a reaction from his boys in these easier run of fixtures.

Even though City blank in GW18, their fixtures before and after the blank are good and scream clean-sheet potential. 3 off their next 4 opponents- Luton, Palace and Sheffield United are all ranked in bottom 5 for xG and also Goals scored this season. Man City’s underlying defensive numbers are still good as they have the 2nd least xGC in the league(14.27)- Only behind Arsenal(11.87).

Key Matchup: Luton Town have conceded 24 shots from set pieces this season which is the highest among all the teams in the league. Dias who always attacks these set pieces would love this matchup.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Hwang Hee-chan vs Nottingham Forest(H), £5.7m, TSB: 9.9%

Hwang has been a revelation so far this season. The Korean has registered 10 attacking returns(8 G 2 A) so far this season. 6 of those returns have come at home. In fact, he has blanked only once at Moilneux, scoring 6 goals in 7 matches.

The Wolves midfielder is the seventh highest points scorer among midfielders in FPL this season, with 74 points. Gary O’Neil’s men have a good run of fixtures coming up before the Korean heads for the Asian cup.

Key stats of Wolves’ upcoming opponents

• Nottingham Forest have conceded the joint most number of goals(12) in the last four GWs
• West Ham are fifth worst in the league for big chances conceded(40) in the league
• Chelsea have also conceded 12 goals in last 4GWs, along with Forest
• Brighton are yet to keep a clean sheet this season

Tip: Hwang is a great replacement for Mbeumo this week. It will free up funds for managers, which can then be used on other players later in the festive period.

Leon Bailey vs Arsenal(H), £5.5m, TSB: 1.3%

Aston Villa produced the standout result and indeed performance of the midweek fixtures, beating Man City by a goal to nil. Leon Bailey scored the winner in that game, and picked up 9 points in FPL. With that, Bailey has scored in back to back matches for the first time in his Premier League career.

Since GW9, no Aston Villa player has registered more attacking returns than Bailey(4). No, not even Watkins. He has forced his way into the starting eleven of this team. Given that he started against Man City says everything that we need to know from an FPL point of view.

Aston Villa are one of few teams to have good fixtures all the way till GW27. Seven of the twelve fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Besides, the tougher fixtures on paper (Arsenal, Man Utd, and Newcastle) are all at home. We don’t need to emphasise how good Emery’s men are at home. So essentially, any asset you bring in from the Villains, is a long term option.

Before starting in Premier League matches, the Jamaican had delivered in Europe. He had registered a goal and 2 assists in his last 2 starts in the Europa Conference League. He has now carried that form into the league, and has given us FPL managers a great budget friendly option.

Top FPL GW16 Ultra Differential Picks (<1% ownership)

Raul Jimenez vs West Ham(H), £5.2m, TSB: 0.9%

Raul Jimenez did put in a brilliant performance in GW15 vs Forest getting 2 goals, 3 bonus points to fetch a 13 point haul. His underlying numbers were also good in this games as seen below.

Jimenez underlying numbers in GW15(Rank among all players in GW15):

• Shots inside the box– 6(Joint 2nd)
• Big Chances- 2(Joint 2nd)
• Non Penalty xG– 1.44(3rd)
• Bonus Points system score– 51(Joint 1st)

Though it might look like a knee-jerk move to get him in after the haul, We know that Jimenez is a proven goal scorer in the league. And the goals scored were not lucky goals. Fulham have improved their attack in recent weeks scoring 11 goals from the last 3 games.

Fulham attack since GW13(Rank among all teams)

• Goals scored- 11(1st)
• xG- 6.6(4th)
• Big Chances- 12(2nd)

Tip: At just 5.2 million, Jimenez can be a excellent budget option as an 8th attacker in your team. You can bench him in GW17 when they play Newcastle and use him for GW18 vs Burnley when Manchester City and Brentford blank.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW16

FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW16 Injury News & Press Conference Updates Of All Teams
FPL GW16 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW16 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, Defenders + More
Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW16 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2023/24 FPL Cup Guide
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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