After months of preparing and planning, GW1 came and before we realised is already behind us. It sprung quite a few surprises (Gabriel benching, Bruno/ Rashford blanking) but restored normal service too (Haaland scoring, Pep roulette resuming and Mbeumo-Wissa returning points in the absence of Toney). Before we realise the Gameweek 2 deadline is fast approaching with another Friday evening kick off. So, let’s start with our first BUY-HOLD-SELL article of the season, sponsored by …. Well, nobody. We are poor, but you can help here if you want 😊
Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
SELL/ HOLD is only for players greater than 15% ownership because to sell/ hold you need to own the player first
BUY is only for players less than 10% ownership
Note: All the players mentioned in this article as “Players to Buy/Hold/Sell ahead of FPL Gameweek 2” are the author’s opinion based on stats and analysis. Have a read and decide for yourselves.
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players to BUY
Luis Díaz (£7.5m) – MID, Liverpool – 7.8% TSB
The juiciest fixture for this week is undoubtedly the Liverpool-Bournemouth clash at Anfield. Liverpool won this fixture last season 9-0. So, a Liverpool attacker for this fixture will be very popular. Luis Diaz fits the bill perfectly. He is cheap, back after an injury and led his Liverpool teammates post GW1 in terms of:
- Shots
- Shots on Target
- Shots in the Box
- Big Chances
- xG
- xGI
- Goals
- GI
- xPts
- BPS
- Bonus
- FPL Pts
Even last season, before getting injured, in the first 10 GWs, Diaz was 3rd amongst his Liv team-mates behind Firmino and Salah for Shots on Target, Goal Involvement, Bonus Points and FPL Points.
A downgrade from Bruno/ Rashford after a lacklustre game when they face Spurs (A) might be a shrewd short-term move.
Moussa Diaby (£6.5m) – MID, Aston Villa – 7.8% TSB
In GW1, Diaby had 37 touches with 27 touches in the opponent’s half and 17 in the final third.
For context, Watkins who is supposed to be in an advanced role as the ST had 31 touches with 24 touches in the opponent’s half and 16 in the final third. Even in terms of xG, there was hardly any difference with Diaby scoring 0.28 and Watkins managing 0.32. Their heatmaps were very identical too.
All this implies the advanced positions Diaby had been taking up. He almost played like a second ST with Watkins.
This actually should not come as a surprise as his xGI numbers in Germany were also electric:
xGI/90:
21/22: 0.56
20/21: 0.44
19/20: 0.55
Everton defence has been wretched in 22/23. Although the perception is that Dyche improved the situation, the change, if any, is insignificant
Everton Rank | 22/23 Season | Post Dyche (GW 22 onwards) |
Clean Sheets (CS) | 15th | Joint 6th |
xCS | 16th | 12th |
Goals Conceded (GC) | 13th | 14th |
xGC | 16th | 15th |
NPxGA | 17th | 12th |
Big Shots Conceded | 14th | 13th |
Shots on Target Conceded | 16th | 13th |
Shots in Box Conceded | 19th | 14th |
Shots Conceded | 19th | 13th |
Buying Diaby early for a 2-week punt against Everton (H) & Burnley (A) might catapult you in your mini-leagues.
Further Read: FPL GW2 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players to HOLD
Gabriel Magalhães (£5.0m) – DEF, Arsenal – 30.5% TSB
200,000 managers have already sold Gabriel, who started every single Premier League game last season. In fact, even beyond last season, he started 73 of Arsenal’s last 77 Premier League games. His next few fixtures look amazing – especially the GW 2 fixture when they face Crystal Palace (A).
Last season, Arsenal had kept 4 clean sheets at home, while they managed 10 in away fixtures. On the other hand, Crystal Palace were ranked 20th in terms of xG and 18th in terms of “shots from headers conceded” in home games.
With Timber injured, against Palace, Gabriel has a very high chance of starting (and hopefully scoring from a corner too). Give the Brazilian one more week – and hence for GW2 specifically, he is a HOLD. However, if he is benched against Palace too, then surely, he is a sell in GW3
Further Read: Best Defenders to Target ahead of GW2- Mings/Timber Replacements
Ollie Watkins (£8.0m) – FWD, Aston Villa – 25.4% TSB
Watkins is the second most sold FWD although he faces Everton at home.
Watkins Rank in 22/23 | Amongst Currently Active FWDs |
Mins | 1st |
Shots | 3rd |
Shots on Target | 2nd |
Shots in the Box | 2nd |
Big Chances | 2nd |
Headed Attempts | 3rd |
NPxG | 2nd |
xG | 2nd |
Goals | 3rd |
Assists | 3rd |
xGI | 2nd |
Goal Involvement | 3rd |
BPS | 2nd |
Bonus Points | 2nd |
xPts | 2nd |
FPL Points | 2nd |
Last season, when Aston Villa hosted Everton in GW2, Watkins provided 2 assists and scored 11 points.
In GW 25, when Villa visited Everton, Watkins scored a goal and bagged 6 points.
Hence, I would strongly suggest not selling Watkins. In fact, he is a good punt for a differential captain.
Further Read: Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players to SELL
Alexander Isak (£7.6m) – FWD, Newcastle – 23.1% TSB
A few might be surprised by finding Isak’s name in the SELL list. However, I was equally surprised to see him being the first one to rise in price. Of course, he scored 13 points against a good AVL defence. But let’s have a look at Newcastle’s nightmarish fixtures from GW2
Even if we look at GW1, Isak’s underlying stats are not that impressive. He is ranked 18th in terms of xGI suggesting how massively he overperformed.
There are much better short-term replacements available in the form of Ollie Watkins, João Pedro and Yoane Wissa.
Further Read: FPL GW2 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Eberechi Eze (£6.5m) – MID, Crystal Palace – 15.8% TSB
Let’s first understand why the sudden craze for Eze started. Last season, between GW 29-38, Eze was the 2nd highest-scoring MF in FPL after Salah. However, in those 10 GWs, his opponents were all in the Bottom 10 for Goals Conceded. For context, Palace were 14th in XG even during that dream run
GW | Opponent | Rank – Goals Conceded |
GW 29 | LEI | 17th |
GW 30 | LEE | 20th |
GW 31 | SOU | 19th |
GW 32 | EVE | 13th |
GW 33 | WOL | 14th |
GW 34 | WHU | 12th |
GW 35 | TOT | 15th |
GW 36 | BOU | 18th |
GW 37 | FUL | 10th |
GW 38 | NFO | 16th |
Crystal Palace face last year’s runners up Arsenal in GW2 at Selhurst Park. As already mentioned, Crystal Palace were ranked 20th in terms of xG in home games last season. Arsenal beat Palace 0-2 in this fixture in GW1 last season whereas in the reverse fixture in GW28, the Gunners won 4-1. Eze could manage 1 point across the 2 matches.
He wasn’t a good asset to start GW1 with. But if you’ve him, you might want to switch to Bryan Mbeumo or Moussa Diaby or upgrade to James Maddison if you have £1.0m in the bank.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW2
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
FPL GW2 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Top FPL Gameweek 2 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW2 Differential Picks((10% TSB) To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Best Defenders to Target ahead of GW2- Mings/Timber Replacements
FPL GW2 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW2 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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