Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The final Gameweek of the 2022/23 FPL season is upon us and it offers us FPL managers one last chance to make up ranks/mini league positions. There are quite a few teams who still have something to play for going into the last game of the season and this means there are also decent FPL transfer options to consider from an FPL perspective. In this blog, let’s take a look at our top FPL GW38 Differential picks/punts to consider in your teams.

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including Fixtures to target, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

James Maddison vs West Ham(H), £7.8m TSB: 4.5%

James Maddison was a disappointing asset for a lot of managers who wildcarded and brought him in during the GW26-28 period. He had strong underlying numbers back then but that did not result in goals or assists. But this time around especially after Dean Smith took over his output has improved with a goal and three assists in the last five games.

In fact, his xGI of 5.0 in the last five games is the 3rd highest in the league amongst midfielders during the period. He’s had four big chances and has also created four big chances for his teammates in the last five games showing strong goal-scoring and assist potential.

West Ham’s Away defensive rank since the World Cup

• Big Chances Conceded- 16th
• Expected Goals Conceded- 18th
• Goals Conceded- 17th

The Hammers have also kept only 3 clean sheets in 18 away games this season. Maddison also has a great matchup with the Hammers conceding 27 chances through the middle in the last six games(3rd highest in the league during the period)

Further Read: FPL GW38 Free Hit Guide- Players to Target and Best Drafts

Phil Foden vs Brentford(A), £8.0m, TSB: 8.8%

Foden did put in a splendid performance against Brighton for 50 minutes before being taken off due to a precautionary knock. He got the goal, 3 bonus points to fetch 9 points and also looked really good on the eye test. He could have easily had one more goal(hit the post) and one more assist(Haaland miss) in the 50 minutes he played. Watch out for Pep’s pre-game press conference to get more updates on his availability for GW38.

City attackers Expected Goal Involvement since GW34:

• Haaland- 5.6
• Foden- 2.4
• Gundogan- 2.3
• Alvarez- 2.2
• Mahrez- 2.2
• Grealish- 1.6

Foden has better-Expected Goal Involvement compared than Gundogan, Grealish, Alvarez and Mahrez despite playing less minutes than them over this period.

Predicting the Pep Roulette:

It is likely that Foden does not start both the Cup finals, so he should given plenty of minutes in FPL GW38. Ther versatility of Foden pushes up his expected minutes further. If we get the team leaks and all the main attackers(KDB, Mahrez, Alvarez, Grealish, Foden, Gundogan) all start, our Top pick would be Foden. If Foden doesn’t start and Alvarez starts, Alvarez would be our second favorite pick.

Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Selection- Top Picks and Players to Target

Eberechi Eze vs Nottingham Forest(H), £5.7m, TSB: 8.9%

Eze’s season was not very promising especially under Vieira under whom he had only limited oppurtunites. But once Roy Hodgson took over Eze has been one of the best performing players in the Premier League which also has resulted in a England national team call up.

Since Roy took over, Eze has started 9/9 games and completed 90 minutes in all the games compared to just 1 start in 8 games before that. Eze has repaid his faith with 6 goals, 1 assist, and 65 points from these 9 games averaging 7.22 FPL points/game. Only Salah(8) has more Goals than Eze(6) among Midfielders during this time having played two games more than Eze.

Eze’s underlying numbers have also been good during this period- 25 shots, 13 Shots on Target, xGI- 5.0

Key Stats- Eze

Since GW29, Only Rashford(15) have more Shots on Target than Eze(13) amongst Midfielders.

Matchup alert:

Nottingham Forest have nothing to play for having avoided relegation and are generally poor away from home. This could mean rotation and Cooper could see this as an opportunity to give game time to the other 1131311 players in their squad. Forest have conceded 35.18 xGC(3rd worst), 43 goals(worst in the League) and kept only 2 clean sheets(Joint 2nd Lowest in the League)

Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Selection- Top Picks and Players to Target

Jamie Vardy vs West Ham(H), TSB: £9.1m, TSB: 2.1%

Vardy has seen it all with Leicester City- Playing in Championship, getting promoted, Winning the league and Playing in Champions League. At 36, he still has a major challenge ahead of him with Leicester banking on him to stay in Premier League. A win in GW38 won’t be just enough for Leicester, they would want Everton to drop points as well. Leicester did set up for a draw in GW37 vs Newcastle and got it. But ever since Smith took over in GW31, Leicester have been a good attacking side- They are in Top 7 for xG and Big Chances/90 during this time.

Once again, they would go all out attacking requiring a win at the minimum. Vardy has 2 goals from the last games, but his underlying numbers have been good as well.

Key Stat:

Only Haaland(5.84), Wilson(5.75) have better than xG than Vardy(3.32) among all the Forwards since GW33. Vardy has played 5 games during this period while Wilson and Haaland have played 6 and 7 games respectively.

Vardy like Maddison also has a great matchup with the Hammers conceding 27 chances through the middle in the last six games(3rd highest in the league during the period).

Vardy performs really well on the Final Gameweek of the season over the years- Getting 3 Double Digit hauls in the last 6 years.

Further Read: FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Jacob Ramsey vs Brighton(H), TSB: 1.2%

Unai Emery has done a fantastic job at Villa since taking over, now that a win in GW38 would secure them a place in Europe next season. If they drop points, a win for Spurs would mean Villa losing their Europa Conference league spot for next year. So they will have all the motivation in the world to win this game. On the other hand, Brighton have secured their Europa league spot which could mean De Zebri Roulette. It is highly likely that De Zebri gives rest to key players who have been through a tight schedule in the last few weeks.

Watkins has been the star player for Villa attack wise throughout the season, but his numbers have fallen off in recent weeks- 0 goals in last 6 games. Instead it has been Ramsey who has been impressive in the last few games getting 2 goals from the last 2 matches. The goals have not been just lucky as his underlying numbers over the last 8 games have been impressive- 13 shots, 8 Big Chance involvements, xGI- 4.2(>0.5 xGI/game which is excellent).

Ramsey tops all the attacking numbers for Villa over the last 4 games- Shots, xG, Shots on Target, xA, Goals, FPL Points even ahead of striker like Watkins.

Ramsey Stats over the last 4 games(Rank among Villa players):

Over the last 4 matches, he is little more attacking than usual and is at the end of Big chances created through the center/left.

FPL GW38 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% Ownership)

Dwight McNeill vs Bournemouth(H), £5.1m, TSB: 0.8%

The equation for Everton is simple and straight forward- Win the game and stay in the Premier League. They have their own fate in their hands and need not depend on other results at all. On the other hand Bournemouth are comfortably safe and have nothing to play for. Ever since their safety got confirmed mathematically in GW34, They have lost 3/3 games conceding 6 goals. They are literally on the beach.

Everton would want their main man Dwight McNeill to step up once again in the final game of the season. He has been in splendid form- 4 goals, 2 assists, 48 points from last 7 games(6.85 points/game). McNeill’s underlying numbers during this time have also been good- 19 Shots, xG-2.15, xGI- 4.8, 7 Big Chance Involvements.

Only Bruno Fernandes(11), TAA(7) have created more Big Chances in the entire league than Dwight McNeill(5) since GW31. Its not just his creativity, He also takes in a lot of shots- His 10 Shots on Target since GW31 only behind Bruno(11) and Rashford(11) among midfielders in the entire league.

Dwight McNeill Stats since GW31:

• Matches– 7
• Shots on Target– 10(3rd among mids)
• Expected Assists– 2.68(2nd among mids, 4th overall)
• Big Chances created– 5(2nd among mids, 3rd overall)
• Goal Involvements– 6(Joint 3rd among mids)
• FPL Points– 48(3rd among mids)

Doucoure is also an interesting shout from Everton. He looks really good from the eye test, playing almost as a second striker with DCL making some late runs and taking interesting attacking positions.

The stats favour McNeill. But Both these could be great ultra-differential punts to end your FPL season on a high.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38

Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks and Punts(<10% TSB) with Stats and Analysis
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics 
FPL GW38 Scout Selection- Top Picks and Players to Target
FPL GW38 Free Hit Guide- Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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