FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Gameweek 29 was a bit of an up-and-down week for FPL managers. All the bench boosters more or less celebrated, as the GW ended with average points of 80, the highest this season. The next week is upon us already and it is important to bear in mind the blank GW coming up in a fortnight. This is the time to move away from the template team. Managers, therefore, would be looking to bring in that X-factor who could propel your rank. In this blog, let’s look at the top six differential picks for FPL GW30 including one ultra differential pick(<=1% ownership)

Stats from FFFix and FFHub

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including GW30 Wildcard Drafts, Fixtures to target, Double and blank gameweek news, Predicted GW30 Lineups, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Jack Grealish vs Southampton(A), £6.9m, TSB: 2.9%

Jack Grealish is the third most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 30. That isn’t surprising as the Man City midfielder registered a goal and an assist, along with 2 bonus points in his last outing. The 12-point haul he got in GW29 was his best ever in a Man City shirt.

Grealish stats since GW17

• xA: 4.24( 7th best in the league)
• BCC: 7( joint 6th best)
• Assists: 6( joint 2nd best)
• KP: 24( 11th best among midfielders)

We got to keep in mind the blank Gameweek coming for City before bringing their assets in. It is ideal to bring players from the champions if you are planning to use a free hit in GW32. Otherwise, it is better to think twice before bringing players from City.

Grealish has 2 goals and 3 assists in his premier league career against Southampton. He has scored more goals and registered more assists only against 4 more opposition. In short, the Saints are among his favorite opponents.

Meanwhile, Southampton are fourth worst in the league for chances conceded down the right side of their defence. 27% of the chances they concede are down that flank, the joint third worst in the league in terms of %. As we can see from the above graphic, that is the flank in which Grealish operates.

One of the most important stat in favour of Grealish is that he has started each of the last 10 league games. So even if Foden comes back from injury, he is likely to play on the right side rather than on the left. Dare we say, Grealish is nailed, as it stands.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Ruben Dias vs Southampton(A),£5.9m, TSB:6.6%

Ruben Dias becomes the second Man City player on our differentials list. Indeed, he is part of the conversation again as he has started each of the last 6 matches in the league. Besides, Pep Guardiola’s men have kept clean sheets in 2 of the last 3 games, after a barren run prior to that.

The above image shows defensive stats of teams since the World Cup. As we can see, Man City are way ahead when compared the rest. The champions have been unlucky to have not kept more clean sheets. As we can see they have xCS of 7.48 while they have kept only 4 clean sheets.

Man City’s fixtures post GW32 scream out clean sheets, barring the Arsenal game of course. As a result of which, any FPL manager with a FH to use in GW32 must rush in and get City defenders into their teams.

In the last 6 GWs, Ruben Dias has had 5 shots in the box, with 1 big chance. That is more than any other Man City defender. In fact, despite missing a lot of games through injury, no other defender from Man City has had more shots in the box and more big chances than the Portuguese.

Manchester City are one among the 3 teams that are likely to Double in both GW34 and GW37 which increases their appeal.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW30

Harvey Barnes vs Bournemouth(H), £6.7m, TSB: 2.3%

Harvey Barnes scored a stunning equaliser in Leicester’s 2-1 defeat at home to Aston Villa last time out. The Englishman took his goal tally for the season to 10, his best ever in the Premier League. He has scored in 3 of his last 5 appearances at the King Power stadium.

We have been pushing for Maddison a lot in recent weeks, however, Barnes comfortably tops all the key stats in front of goal among Leicester players. Not only is he top for big chances, xG, goals, SIB, he now has more FPL points than Maddison too.

Harvey Barnes is the third-best in the league for big chances among midfielders. Only Mo Salah and Marcus Rashford have had more. The only problem with Barnes this season has been a lack of bonus points. However, he has got 10, 13, and 9 bonus points in the last three seasons, respectively. So, truth be told, he is due bonus points and given the fact that 5 of Leicester’s next 6 games have an FDR rating of 2, it may well come soon.

Most Chances conceded from the Right Flank this season:

• Bournemouth- 125
• Everton- 118
• Leicester- 114
• Southampton- 109

Meanwhile, Bournemouth are the worst in the league for chances conceded down the right flank. As we know, that is exactly where Harvey Barnes operates. It is truly a match made in heaven!

Further Read: FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips

Joachim Andersen vs Leeds(A), £4.5m, TSB: 1.4%

Crystal Palace registered their first win in 13 matches last time against Leicester. The Eagles registered a 2-1 win over the Foxes. Despite being in a wretched run of form, Palace conceded more than 1 goal in only two matches in that run. They also kept clean sheets against the likes of Newcastle and Man Utd.

If ever you are looking for a team that has good fixtures coming up, you will look for something like what Palace have. There is a sea of green on their fixture list and there is a new manager bounce. A combo that could bring joy to FPL managers.

Picking Joachim Andersen is just a classic fixture play tactic. As we can see from the above graphic, he has had the 5th most number of shots in the box among Palace defenders. His tally of 3 big chances and 2 big chances created is better than any of their defenders. He is second only to Guehi for BPS among his compatriots. Therefore, it is safe to say that Andersen is the best defender to own from Palace.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Dominic Solanke vs Leicester(A), £5.5m, TSB: 2.1%

Dominic Solanke was unfortunate to come away from DGW29 with just 11 points. The Cherries man had the joint most number of shots in the box, the joint most number of big chances, and had the third-best tally for xPts in that Gameweek.

Solanke is having his best season in the top flight. He has registered 4 goals and 7 assists already this season. His previous best was registering 3 goals and 2 assists in the 2019-20 season.

Bournemouth are another team that has good fixtures in the next month or so. They have been in decent form too. Gary O’Neil’s men have won 3 out of the last 7 matches. Solanke has 3 attacking returns in that time.

Dominic Solanke has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last two matches against Leicester City. As stated earlier, the forward registered 3 goals in the 19-20 season, two of those were in one game against the Foxes.

Meanwhile, Leicester City have the joint third-worst record in the league for goals conceded at home. Since, GW24, the Foxes have conceded the joint second most amount of goals, along with Bournemouth themselves. The Bournemouth vs Leicester game has goals written all over it! Bring on Harvey Barnes and Dom Solanke! ( Now that we have said that expect an old-fashioned boring goalless draw)

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW30

FPL GW30 Ultra Differential Pick(<=1% ownership)

Alex Moreno vs Nottingham Forest(H), £4.4m, TSB: 0.6%

Aston Villa were only one of two sides ( the other being Newcastle) to win both their games in the double Gameweek. After conceding 11 goals in 3 matches between GWs 22 to 24, Unai Emery’s men have given away only 2 goals in the subsequent six matches, keeping 4 clean sheets in the process.

Alex Moreno has already registered 2 assists, in 7 starts. In fact, he has blanked only once, when he has started, which came in his last outing against Leicester. Since joining Villa, Moreno is fourth best for xA among his compatriots. Furthermore, he is second only to Douglas Luis for key passes in that time. He has also had the joint most number of shots in the box among Villa defenders in the aforementioned period.

Villa’s upcoming fixtures are really good for clean sheets, barring the Newcastle game of course. For starters, Nottingham Forest have the worst goal-scoring record in the league on the road. Steve Cooper’s men have scored only 5 goals on their travels. They have the worst xG, and the fewest number of big chances away from their own backyard. Therefore, the chances of Villa keeping another shutout is likely.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW30
FPL GW30 Scout Picks- Stats & Justification for each player picked
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline(<10% TSB)
FPL GW30 Predicted Lineups, Injury/Press Conference Updates
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW30 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW30 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL Gameweek 30 Preview Video

If you prefer video content, here’s our FPL GW30 video covering GW29 key talking points, Players to Target for GW30, Grealish – player in focus, Watkins as a captaincy option, Latest on Brighton, Captaincy debate, and more. Timestamps are added for easy viewing as well!

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