FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW14 Deadline

There’s only three gameweeks to go before the world cup break and managers are looking to gain ranks to end as high as possible before the break. Now with most managers having used their wildcard already the best way to gain ranks in the upcoming weeks is to have a few differentials in our teams. In this article, we will provide you with our Top 6 FPL GW14 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification and detailed analysis.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL GW14 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW14 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW14 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Luke Shaw vs West Ham(H), £4.7, TSB: 0.9%

After having been hooked off in a 4-0 halftime collapse in GW2, Luke Shaw returned to the side in another 4-0 halftime collapse, against Manchester City. Since then, he has been a transformed player for the Red Devils. Shaw capped off four consecutive starts by providing the assist for Casemiro’s equalizer at Stamford Bridge at the weekend. The Englishman has also got bonus points in each of his last two matches.

Manchester United have had the best defense in the league in the last four GWs, in terms of NPxGA. Eirk Ten Hag’s men have also conceded the fewest big chances(4) in that time, one of it being a penalty. Only Manchester City have allowed fewer shots on target in the aforementioned time period.

Meanwhile, Manchester United’s opponents- West Ham have one of the worst records away from home this season. The Hammers have only scored 3 goals on the road all season, only two teams have scored fewer. As a result, the chances of Manchester United keeping another clean sheet is very high.

Erik Ten Hag’s men have played 9 of the 11 sides in the top half of the table so far. Therefore, the upcoming fixtures is filled with greenery as we can see from the above image. Our focus is until GW16 as of now, and Manchester United are one of only three teams to have all the fixtures with an FDR rating of 2.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Darwin Nunez vs Leeds(H), £8.8, TSB: 6.4%

Darwin Nunez was part of our last week’s differential blog as well. However, he missed the game against Nottingham Forest due to injury. Liverpool really missed him as they suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of the bottom club. The Uruguayan came back from injury midweek against Ajax and netted again. That goal meant that he has 4 goals in his last 4 starts in all competitions, scoring one in each of those games.

In his last start in the league, against West Ham, Nunez had 6 shots in the box, that was second only to Mitrovic in that week. Not only that, he is top for shots in the box, big chances, xG, and goals per 90 among Liverpool players.

Liverpool take on Leeds United this weekend. Jesse Marsch’s men have been struggling on the road this season. They have lost each of their last 4 games on the road. In fact, they have lost 6 of the last 8 games and haven’t won any in that time. The Whites have picked up just one point on the road, the joint worst in the league. Meanwhile, Liverpool have picked up 14 points at home, the fourth-best in the league. This is indeed another match made in heaven!

Diving into Archives

Leeds United have conceded 10 goals in their last two visits to Anfield. Given the form of these two teams at home and away respectively, we can see a similar story unfolding this time around too

Further Read: FPL GW14 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups

Granit Xhaka vs Nottingham Forest(H), £5.1, TSB: 3.7%

Granit Xhaka has been bit of a revelation this season, for table toppers Arsenal. The Swiss international has not only been at his best in doing his usual midfield job, he has also been a goal threat in the box. The Arsenal man netted his third goal of the season, against Southampton last time out.

Xhaka has 3 goals and 3 assists so far this season. That is as many attacking returns he registered in the previous two seasons combined. He also has more bonus points(7) this season than last three campaigns combined. A clear upturn in form.

The above image is a clear indication of not only a change in form, but a change in position. Xhaka has got forward more this season. This is clearly seen by the amount of touches per 90 he has had in the box as compared to last season. In fact, he has already had more touches in the box this season than the whole of the last one. Almost every stat this season is better than last. Plus, he is only £5.1, which makes him an incredible option.

Among players who are priced £6.5 or under, only Almiron has more points this season than the Arsenal man. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have been poor away from home. They have picked up just two points on the road and have conceded the third most number of shots in the box and big chances as well.

Further Read: FPL Player in Focus: Granit Xhaka | A Redemption Story

Callum Wilson vs Aston Villa(H), £7.3, TSB: 2.4%

One word that comes to our mind when Callum Wilson’s name is mentioned, is efficiency. He won’t be at the levels of Haaland or Kane when it comes to the amount of chances he gets. But when he gets chances he makes sure he takes them. He has registered 4 goals and an assist in 8 starts so far.

The Englishman is top for shots in the box and shots per 90 among his compatriots and second only to Isak for xG and Big chances per 90 so far this season. He will be looking to continue his excellent form against a struggling Aston Villa. The next two fixtures for the Magpies have an FDR rating of 2. Wilson would be looking to make a final push to try and get into the World Cup squad for England.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa have been one of the worst sides in the league on the road. The Villains have taken only two points on their travels, keeping just one clean sheet and conceding 11 goals( the joint seventh-worst) in the league.

Callum Wilson- Key Stats Ranking(per 90)

• Shots in the box- 7th
• Big chances- 5th
• xG- 7th

Dominic Calvert-Lewin vs Fulham(A), £7.9, TSB: 0.4%

Boy, did Everton miss Calvert-Lewin. It was evident to see what a fully fit DCL does to this Everton team. The Toffees produced their best performance under Frank Lampard last time out, against Crystal Palace. DCL scored the opening goal in that game, and bullied Guehi and Andersen all game, just like old times!

Everton have slowly ushered their talisman back into the team. For the first time this season, Calvert-Lewin started back-to-back games. He was able to do so despite only having a two-day break in between. A sign of things to come perhaps!

Lampard’s men one of only three sides to have all the remaining fixtures before the world cup with an FDR rating of 2. Not only that, these are three of the worst defenses in the league. To put it in numbers, in terms of goals conceded, Fulham are the fourth worst, Leicester- second, and Bournemouth being the worst in the league so far. DCL might go on a goal-scoring spree in this run of fixtures

Calvert-Lewin’s next three opponents- Key Stats

• Fulham have conceded 40 big chances, 9 more than the team in second place
• Bournemouth have given away the second-most number of headed attempts
• Leicester have the worst NPxGA and xCS tally away from home

Fun Fact

The last time Calvert-Lewin faced Fulham at Craven Cottage, he scored a brace in Everton’s 3-2 win back in November 2020.

Further Read: Predicted GW14 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams Along with Injury news and PC updates

FPL GW14 Ultra Differential Pick (<1% ownership)

Diego Costa vs Brentford(A), £5.5, TSB: 0.6%

Wolves are a side which have largely struggled in front of goal. However, they have markedly improved in terms of creating more goal scoring opportunities and offering a threat in front of goal. To put it in numbers, from GW1-10 the Black Country side were 19th in terms of xG. But in the last three Gameweeks they are 10th for xG in the league and have a better tally than the likes of Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal.

The improved is largely down to the presence of Diego Costa in the starting eleven. Last week against Leicester alone, the Spaniard had 8 shots in the box, at least 3 more than any other player. Furthermore, the striker has had 11 shots in the box in the last three GWs, only Mitrovic and Kane have had more in that time.

Meanwhile, in the last three Gameweeks, no team has a more worse xGC than Wolves’ opponents- Brentford. The Bees have conceded 23 shots on target in that time, at least 5 more than the team in second place. Adding on to that, they have given away 9 big chances, second only to Liverpool in that time.

Brentford have conceded 62% of the chances down the center, which is the most in the league. In fact, in the last three GWs that number has gone up to 68%. As we can see from the above graphic, that is exactly where Diego Costa operates. Surely, his first goal for Wolves is on the way!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW14

FPL GW13 Team Wise Review With Key Stats & Notes
Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW14 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Predicted GW14 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW14 Preview – Breaking Down Dilemmas for Gameweek 14
FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW14 Deadline
FPL Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL Player in Focus: Granit Xhaka | A Redemption Story
FPL GW14 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups
FPL GW14 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW14 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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