Man City GW1-8 Review | Best Man City Assets for FPL GW9-16

Eight Gameweeks into the 2022-23 season, what have we learned about Man City FPL assets so far?

In this article, I’ll review Gameweeks 1-8 and share my perspective on how to approach City’s FPL assets between now and the World Cup(FPL GW9-16). For weekly Man City content and FPL threads, check me out on Twitter @4lex_mcfc!

Link to all our FPL GW9 blogs including Wildcard Guide, Fixtures to target, Predicted 11, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Man City GW1-8 Review

In the first 8 GWs (7 games in total), City won 5 and drew 2. They have scored 23 goals (3.29/game, 15.7 xG) and conceded 6 (0.86/game, 3.4 xG). This puts City approximately on pace to score 125 goals and concede 33 this season – for City, an above average amount of goals scored and an average amount of goals conceded. City have looked the part and it has been reflected in the stats and in FPL. With the introduction of Haaland, many hypothesized that City could score more goals, and so far, that seems to be true. As many expected, City are just as dominant this season as they have been in recent years, which makes for some great FPL assets. So, how has this performance panned out in FPL so far?

Top 10 Man City FPL Points FPL GW1-8

1. Haaland (12.0 m FWD) – 73 points
2. De Bruyne (12.3 m MID) – 45 points
3. Cancelo (7.2 m DEF) – 42 points
4. Bernardo (7.0 m MID) – 39 points
5. Foden (8.0 m MID) – 32 points
6. Gundogan (7.6 m MID) – 31 points
7. Ederson (5.5 m GK) – 29 points
8. Dias (6.0 m DEF) – 28 points
9. Stones (5.4 m DEF) – 22 points
10. Walker (5.0 m DEF) – 22 points

Haaland, as everyone knows, has been the best FPL asset this season by far. In preseason, I wrote about the possibility of Haaland sucking up goal contributions from his fellow attackers – and that seems to have come to fruition. Haaland is clearly City’s talisman, contributing to 52.2% of City’s goals this season. Aguero never had a talismanic close to this rate under Pep; at his best, he contributed to just over 30% of City’s PL goals (29 G+A in 33 appearances in 2018-19). Whether Haaland can keep this rate up is a big question, but it is hard to see it decreasing below 40%.

After Haaland, KDB, and Cancelo have justified their premium price tags. KDB is the 4^th highest total FPL scorer and Cancelo is the 6^th highest. Like Haaland, they don’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. When a team like City has three assets that are clearly better than the rest, it makes my job pretty useless. Of course, there’s discussion to be had surrounding KDB vs. Salah vs. Son/Kane as a second premium, but just looking at City, these three are clear of the rest.

Looking at the next bracket of FPL assets, we have three mid-priced midfielders: Bernardo, Foden, and Gundogan. I would classify all of them as the same type of FPL asset – someone who will tick along consistently, but not have predictable explosiveness. Each are great picks at their price but are better owned over long periods of time than shorter ones. In the mid-priced MID bracket, sometimes you want to rotate between assets with high ceilings and sometimes you want a set-and-forget pick. If you want a set-and-forget mid-priced MID, any of these three are great picks.

The third and final bracket of City’s FPL assets is the cheaper defenders. So far, it is clear that Cancelo is head and shoulders better than any other City defender. This is in part due to the limited minutes of his competition – Walker’s injury and general CB rotation. However, Cancelo’s minutes and attacking prowess make him a much better asset to own. If you forgo KDB as a second premium and want another piece of City’s defense instead, these assets are solid picks alongside Cancelo (I’ll get to my favorite later). However, you should not use the reasoning that they are better value than Cancelo in order to cover him. With the best teams, you don’t necessarily want the best value FPL assets. These picks will produce the most consistent points return in the league, so you want to maximize your budget spent on them whilst also targeting high value assets. If any of the cheaper picks has notably more value than Cancelo, then it likely is a question of “how many?” not “which one?”

Navigating the FPL GW12 Blank

In GW12, City’s game against Arsenal has been postponed in order to reschedule one of Arsenal’s previous Europa League fixtures. This means that all of City and Arsenal’s FPL assets will score 0 points in GW12. The most obvious aspect of this is that we don’t want to own more than 4 City and Arsenal assets by GW12. However, City have an exceptional fixture run between GW13 and GW16. Arsenal’s is good and there are assets like Martinelli, who are still great value assets. So, we ideally want to keep three assets from the two teams combined and bench them for a full Starting XI in GW12.

To add on top of this, GW12 comes at the end of a week where every single PL team plays a PL fixture midweek – except City now. Ideally, we want as many City assets as possible in GW12 when they have fresh legs against a team that has just played midweek. I would strongly recommend using the next several Free Transfers you have to accommodate for the blank. I am planning on benching Haaland, Cancelo, and Martinelli in GW12; this requires that I sell KDB (0 pts) and Patterson (injured) with 2/4 of my FTs before then.

FPL GW9 Wildcard

                For my thoughts on City assets if you are on Wildcard this week, check out this Twitter thread I did a few days ago:

GW9 Wildcard Man City Thread 🧵

With many on Wildcard this week, here are my thoughts on what to do with City assets… pic.twitter.com/8nlRFICJAl

— 4lex (@4lex_mcfc) September 26, 2022

Approaching FPL GW9-16

Man City Fixtures GW9-16

• GW9 – MUN
• GW10 – SOU
• GW11 – liv
• GW12 – (blank)
• GW13 – BHA
• GW14 – lei
• GW15 – FUL
• GW16 – BRE

So, given what we know about City’s performance and schedule, how should we approach the period up until the World Cup? Between GW16 and GW17 (World Cup Break), we will have unlimited transfers – an all-around, free Wildcard. Between GW9-12, we want to trim our squads to accommodate the GW12 blank; and given City’s fixture run between GW13 and GW16, we ideally want to fit three assets in at that point.

To cover the obvious, Erling Haaland is a must own. He has lit up the league and does not look like stopping anytime soon. Even with the GW12 blank, he is worth holding from now until the World Cup – unless an injury pops up, of course. Some optimization models recommend selling Haaland for Kane in GW11 and buying Haaland back in GW14, however using 2 Free Transfers to do so at this point in the season is likely not a pragmatic strategy, in my opinion. Haaland should be locked in as your first City asset.

Some would argue with this, but I believe Cancelo is an easy lock as everyone’s second City asset. He is the most consistent DEF outfielder when it comes to minutes for City, he has attacking prowess, bonus potential, and plays for the best defense in the league. What more could you want from an FPL asset? Especially at a moment when no other City defender comes close to his xMins, there is no argument against him. His decrease in attacking stats (-.15 xG+xA/90) will likely affect his attacking output across the whole season, but he underperformed his attacking stats last season. With stats at such a low rate, they are extremely volatile in small batches. Even over the course of a season, variance will play a bigger role than stats as long as Cancelo’s minutes stay consistent. If Cancelo is playing, he is going to get involved in attacking chances in some form. If you sell him prior to GW12 (which is very reasonable) then you should look to get him back for GW13-16.

If you buy into this, it leaves you with one final spot for a City asset. The obvious pick is Kevin De Bruyne. If we had no budget, we would all be picking him. However, everyone needs to make a decision regarding which premiums to own, and not everyone will opt to go with KDB. Salah, Son, and Kane also have great upcoming fixtures at different points, and we only have so much budget. If you want to captain an alternative fixture to City’s in some weeks, owning one of the other premiums alongside Haaland is likely best. Owning KDB is down to individual judgement, he’s a great pick that limits your squad in certain ways.

If you don’t want to go for KDB, owning one of the mid-priced MIDs is a great move in over mid-long periods of time; especially when no alternatives are stand-outs. There isn’t a clear choice between the three at this moment: Bernardo has the most FPL points so far, Foden has the best minutes, and Gundogan has the best expected stats. If Foden’s minutes continue this way, he’s worth the extra money over the others. I believe his role for Pep is expanding, as it has done every season, and he should play around 2,500 (maybe even close to 2,750) minutes this season. Nevertheless, the other two will also provide good value and none will stick out or fade away unless their roles change.

If you don’t want a City MID for any reason, a second City DEF is a great pick – as long as their minutes are secure. City’s defense has proven to be the most fixture proof defense in the Prem across multiple seasons, so it’s all about xMins. At the moment, none of City’s CBs are good buys. Stones just picked up an injury during the International Break (extent unknown), but there are still four fit CBs. All four of: Akanji, Ake, Dias, and Laporte could play at any moment when fit. Until we see concrete evidence over a decent span of time, we can’t expect any of these picks to be nailed.

Kyle Walker (5.0 m) is the outlier; if he is fit and Stones is injured, he is a great value pick. Recently, Stones had played an inverted RB role, looking exceptional facilitating the ball in possession. However, with his injury, Walker at RB and Cancelo at LB is going to be the preferred fullback combination. We could see Ake, Gomez, or Laporte at LB with Cancelo at RB at some points; or maybe even Akanji at RB. However, Walker will undoubtedly be part of the first choice without Stones, and at 5.0 million, he is exceptional value.

Thanks for reading! This will be my last City Review until pre-GW17, right after the World Cup (that’s going to be a fun article to write). Check me out on Twitter in the meantime (@4lex_mcfc) for Man City content and FPL threads!

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