FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW7 Deadline

FPL GW7 is around the corner and with a lot of managers looking to wildcard in GW8 or GW9 means there is going to be a lot of short-term differential transfers eyed by managers to maximize the free transfers before wildcarding. In this blog, we’ll look at six differentials including an ultra differential pick with <1% ownership for GW7.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL GW8 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW7 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Bruno Fernandes vs Crystal Palace(A), £9.8, TSB: 2.4%

Manchester United are in the most in-form team in the league at the moment. No team has picked up more points(12) in the last four games than Erik Ten Hag’s men. Now is the time to jump on United assets, and we believe Bruno Fernandes is the best asset.

Let us look at some numbers to assess Bruno’s influence and importance to this United team. Bruno Fernandes is top for Big Chances created, Key passes played, xA, and second only to Rashford for xG, among United assets.

Now it is easy to argue in support of having Rashford over Bruno. One, he is way cheaper, and two, he has been the top performer. But just hear us out for a moment. Rashford delivers against teams against whom he can counter attack and run in behind. His two big hauls have come against Arsenal and Liverpool, by running in behind. Three of Manchester United’s next four fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. These are teams that are more likely to play with low blocks. Bruno could be a better option!

Here is another interesting stat, Rashford’s xPts this season is 30.01, and Bruno’s is 29.21. There isn’t much to choose between them. Furthermore, Bruno is likely to be in penalties, will Ronaldo not being in the starting eleven.

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace have conceded the most number of big chances in the league, and they also have the third worst xGC in the league. Bruno could be set for a big haul.

Further Read: FPL GW7 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz

Leon Bailey vs Leicester City(A), £4.7, TSB: 5.8%

Well, time for FPL Troll of the season to feature on our Differential blog. After being initially chosen in many GW1 drafts, he had disappointed with just 2 starts and 9 points from the first 2 GWs which saw his ownership and price(5.0 to 4.7) drop down. In GW5 and GW6 against Arsenal and City, he looked really good during the little time Villa had the ball. Bailey also got a goal during the 1-1 draw vs Manchester City to earn a point for Villa and more importantly Gerrard’s trust to start games.

Villa have good fixtures to get back their season on track and it is that stage of the season in FPL where you want to target fixtures when you have a Wildcard coming up soon.

Villa’s Next 4 opponents and their defensive rank-

Bailey’s next 4 opponents	Goals Conceded	Expected Goals Conceded	Big Chances conceded
Leicester City	19th	16th	19th
Southampton	17th	10th	7th
Leeds United	17th	11th	15th
Nottingham Forest	18th	20th	16th

Matchup alert– Bailey mainly thrives on the right wing and his FPL GW7 opponent Leicester have conceded 21 chances on their left flank(6th highest).

Further Read: Predicted GW7 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams

Diogo Dalot vs Crystal Palace(A), £4.5, TSB: 6.8%

Diogo Dalot becomes the second Manchester United player in our differentials list this week. The Portuguese international has been one of the best players in the league, let alone for Manchester United. Given the fact that Ten hag’s men have become solid at the back, now is the time to cash in.

No team has conceded fewer goals(2) than the Red Devils since GW3. Therefore, the chances of United keeping a clean sheet is high. Besides, Palace have scored only 7 goals in 6 matches so far, the joint seventh worst in the league.

Let’s come to Dalot now. The full back is joint top for key passes played, second best for BPS, third best for xA, and fifth best for xG among United players. For a player who costs £4.5, this is extraordinary. In fact, he is third best for xG and xA, top for key passes, joint top for big chances created, among defenders, in the entire league.

Crystal Palace, United’s GW6 opponents have conceded 25% of their chances down the left flank of their defense, that is the joint fifth worst in the league. Therefore, this seems like a match made heaven for Dalot to finally get a massive haul which has been overdue.

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Further Read: FPL GW7 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide

Alexander Isak vs West Ham(A), £7.0, TSB: 4.3%

Isak had an impressive start in his first 2 Gameweeks in Premier League against Liverpool and Palace. From 2 games, he had 3 big chances, xGI-1.42 which looks good from a FPL point of view.

Last season in La Liga Isak had an npxG + xA of 0.49 per 90 and also averaged a healthy 1.35 shots per 90, with 45.1% of his shots being on target. He’s capable of replicating similar numbers in the PL and with the good run of fixtures Newcastle have in the upcoming gameweeks Isak could be a great differential third forward in your teams. The next four oppositions(West Ham, Bournemouth, Fulham and Brentford) for Newcastle have kept a combined 5 Cleansheets from 36 games during the first six gameweeks!

Further Read: Predicted GW7 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams

Nick Pope vs West Ham(A), £5.1, TSB: 10%

It’s only rarely that we pick a goalkeeper in our differential picks blog but everytime we have done in the history of our differential picks it has always been this man Nick Pope. Pope had a heroic gameweek vs Palace scoring 12 points with 9 saves accounting for 3 points plus 3 bouns points. He’s the keeper with the most saves this season(28), most bonus(6) and most BPS(152).

In fact he’s fifth amongst all players for bonus and BPS which is amazing considering the fact that he’s a goal keeper. Nick Pope has a great run of fixtures with West Ham, Bournemouth, Fulham and Brentford in the next four games which all have a good CS plus save potential for him. Newcastle have conceded an xGC of 10.77 in six games but have only conceded 6 goals and one of the reason behind a huge difference of 4.77(xGC – GC) is Nick Pope.

Now with Brighton missing out of a game in GW8, Sanchez to Pope could be a great move for the next few gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL GW7 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz

FPL GW7 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

Dominic Solanke vs Brighton (A), TSB: 0.5%

There was a lot of debate in the AAFPL HQ on who’ll be our GW7 ultra differential pick and after some heavy discussion and analysis we have settled down for Bournemouth main man Dominic Solanke who played an instrumental role in the Cherries making a comeback win againt Nottingham Forest. Solanke is Bournemouth’s main goal threat and they struggled badly when he wasn’t available, his importance to the team was seen against Forest picking up a goal and assist totalling 12 points.

Against Forest, Bournemouth registered an xG of 0.9 for their three goals which is a big over performance but what is interesting is that Solanke registered an xGI of 0.6 and also created the only big chance for cherries in the game.

Brighton potentially losing Potter means GW7 could be a good chance for Solanke and the cherries to pull a win over the seagulls. He’s also a good long term option with Bournemouth having a decent run of fixtures with the next game against a top six team coming only in GW14 vs Spurs. Infact from GW7 till GW16(WC break) Spurs is the only top six side the cherries will be facing.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW7

FPL GW7 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW7 Deadline
FPL GW7 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Predicted GW7 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW7 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
FPL GW7 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW7 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW6 Team of the Weak

Link to all our FPL GW8 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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