Man City GW1-3 Review | Best Man City Assets for GW4-8

We are three Gameweeks into the 2022-23 Premier League season, so I felt like it was a good time to provide another look at City from an FPL perspective. In this article, I’ll provide an update on what we have seen from City thus far, give my opinion on the FPL-relevant points of discussion, and give my preferred Man City FPL assets to own in the next period (GW4-8).

You can expect a City Review article like this several times throughout the season. The next two will likely be during the International Break (mid-September) and just before the World Cup (early November). For daily Man City content and updates, check me out on Twitter @4lex_mcfc!

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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FPL GW1-3 Review

In the first three games, City beat West Ham 2-0, beat Bournemouth 4-0, and drew Newcastle 3-3. We finally have a glimpse of Haaland in the Premier League and have also seen some interesting tactical changes from Pep. So, what key information have we learned from an FPL perspective?

Haaland is going to be a beast. Some doubted how quick Erling Haaland could adapt to the Premier League, but he has silenced those doubters in his first three games. On his debut, he scored a brace and came away with 13 FPL points. He followed this up with a (disappointing) one assist, 5-point performance in GW2, then scored a goal and put up 6 points in GW3. He is joint-top of the league for xG with Mitrovic (next closest is Zaha with 2.1) and he is second in the league for xG/90 and xG+xA/90 behind the suspended Darwin Nunez. He has looked incredibly dangerous and could have come away with even more goal contributions in this period. There should be no doubts about his ability in the Prem, but we should be wary of his impending rotation—given the upcoming fixture congestion.

Cancelo won’t be as attacking this season. In the first three games, one tactical adjustment we have seen from Pep is a 2-3-5 formation in possession with inverted fullbacks. This tactic was in full effect against West Ham in Gameweek 1 but has since been deployed to a lesser degree. Watching City play and looking at Cancelo’s heatmaps, it is clear that he is taking up slightly fewer attacking positions than last season. Although it’s a very small sample size, he has only put up 0.06 xG+xA/90 so far (0.26 last season).

Let me add a small disclaimer in saying that these heatmaps are cumulative. Therefore, many weeks of data is bound to look more saturated than three weeks. However, we can still see that Cancelo has yet to get into the most dangerous attacking positions in and around the box. This is worrying to some given Cancelo’s price tag, but I don’t think it should be much cause for concern. Even if Cancelo is less attacking than last season, he can fairly easily match last season’s total of 1 G/7 A. Cancelo underperformed his xG massively, so even if his xG regresses, his output may stay the same. If he returns similarly to last season, Cancelo is still a great season-long pick.

Gundogan is the best cheap City attacker. In the past few seasons, Gundogan has gone through short periods of being the best value Man City asset. These moments occurred because of specific circumstances, such as injuries to KDB. This season, we could see Gundogan as a consistent FPL asset. This is because his role has changed with the introduction of Haaland. With Haaland, Pep has pushed the wingers wider and used his two center-midfielders (KDB, Gundogan, or Bernardo) to attack the space between Haaland and the wingers.

Against some teams, such as in the Bournemouth game, Haaland’s presence can occupy defenders and provide loads of space for these midfielders. Compared to the wingers, these positions are clearly more attacking—KDB and Gundogan have a combined 3 G/3 A (46 FPL pts total) whereas Foden, Grealish, and Mahrez have a combined 1 G/0 A (22 FPL pts total). I think Pep will continue to implement this tactic and, although we will see rotation due to fixture congestion, KDB + Gundogan is Pep’s preferred midfield pairing. Season-long, I think Foden will be another great cheap option, but for the time being Gundogan is clear.

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Man City Upcoming Fixtures [FPL GW4-8]

The upcoming period is extremely congested due to the World Cup, beginning in just under three months. Here’s how Man City’s upcoming schedule looks:

• August 24 – friendly @ Barcelona
• August 27 – PL home vs Palace (GW4)
• August 31 – PL home vs Forest (GW5)
• September 3 – PL away @ Villa (GW6)
• September 6 – Sevilla vs City (UCL Away)
• September 10 – PL home vs Spurs (GW7)
• September 14 – City vs Dortmund (UCL Home)
• September 17 – PL away @ Wolves (GW8)
• – International Break –

This period will be full of rotation, without a doubt, so we have to be careful with which City assets we choose. In a span of nine days, Man City will face Sevilla, Spurs, and Dortmund.

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Haaland or no Haaland in FPL?

One of the biggest questions regarding City assets is whether or not we should hold Haaland. The main concern is the security of his minutes during fixture congestion. Upon joining City, Haaland admitted that the ability for the team to manage his minutes was a factor in him joining. Given his injury history, it is to be expected that Haaland will be rotated frequently. Pep addressed just this in a recent press conference: “I’ll tell you now that when we have games every three days, Erling is not going to play [every game]. Julian is going to play.”

So, what do we do with Haaland in FPL? Do we sell him because he’ll be rotated, or do we keep him because he can explode? You don’t typically want a premium asset that isn’t playing the vast majority of games. Well, it is not so simple as one way or the other, but I’ll try to breakdown my own thought process when it comes to owning Haaland.

First, let’s talk about captaincy. In my opinion, Haaland is not a great captain option in the upcoming weeks. Yes, he has the potential for double-digit hauls, but his minutes are likely going to be too unpredictable. Compared to the premium alternatives of Salah or Kane, we can expect more rotation with Haaland. He can score even in a 20-30 minute sub appearance, but we want our captains to start and play close to 90 minutes every game. If Haaland is your only premium or if you own both Haaland and KDB, I think you should look at bringing in Salah—whether this requires selling Haaland or not.

Second, let’s talk about Wildcards. If you have used your Wildcard, then I think you should try to get Haaland into your squad. What I said about captaincy still stands, you should also have someone like Salah who you can captain most weeks; but you can just put Haaland in and be sure that he’ll get hauls over a period of time. Unless you have a good reason to use the funds elsewhere, Haaland’s upside is too much to ignore.

Third, let’s talk about rotation. It is difficult to predict which games Haaland will be rested for at the moment, considering we do not have the UCL fixtures. However, I believe that we can expect Haaland to start against Sevilla and Dortmund whilst being benched for Copenhagen. Dependent on which games fall on MD1 and MD2, we can draw a clearer conclusion about how and when Pep will manage Haaland’s minutes. If City play Copenhagen on either MD1 or MD2, then I think Haaland becomes an easier hold in FPL. If City play both Sevilla and Dortmund on MD1 and MD2, then I think we should more strongly consider selling him.

With that being said, for those with a consistent captaincy alternative (Salah) and their Wildcard in hand, I think going without Haaland for the next few Gameweeks could bear fruit. Given that most of us will Wildcard during the International Break post-GW8, we can consider selling Haaland and buying him back on Wildcard.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 4

Assessing Form and Value of Man City FPL Assets

With all that said, let’s take a look at the best-performing Man City assets for FPL GW1-3:

Top 5 Man City FPL Assets GW1-3 (points)

1. De Bruyne (25 pts)
2. Haaland (24 pts)
3. Gundogan (21 pts)
4. Cancelo (18 pts)
5. Bernardo (15 pts)

Top 5 Man City FPL Assets GW1-3 (value)

1. Ake (2.8 pts/mil)
2. Gundogan (2.76 pts/mil)
3. Ederson (2.55 pts/mil)
4. Walker (2.55 pts/mil)
5. Cancelo (2.54 pts/mil)

In the first three games, one of Haaland/KDB, Gundogan, and Ake were the three best assets to own. In FPL, looking at both total points and value is important because you want a combination of both. You likely will not be able to afford all the highest scoring assets, so you need to find good value assets to compensate; the best FPL asset is an expensive, high-value asset.

Best Man City FPL Assets for GW4-8

Below, I rank my favorite City assets for the next 5 Gameweeks. I rank them by expected overall points then by expected value (points per million) before giving a final verdict about the assets I think you should consider.

Top 5 Predicted Man City FPL Assets GW4-8 (points)

1. Haaland
2. De Bruyne
3. Cancelo
4. Gundogan
5. Dias

Top 5 Predicted Man City FPL Assets GW4-8 (value)

1. Ederson
2. Gundogan
3. Walker
4. Dias
5. Ake

I once again expect KDB and Haaland to top the team in points. It will likely come down to how much both of them get rotated, but I expect Haaland to be a better finisher and come away with a higher score than KDB. I think Cancelo and Gundogan will once again score similarly, whoever scores higher will have likely caught a lucky haul. After that, it will probably be one of the midfielders who scores high, but Dias should be close to that #5 spot.

For value, it’s a shame that Ake just got injured. I’m hopeful that he is not out for too long, but a groin injury makes it difficult to play a lot of games in a short period. If he’s out, I expect Ederson, Gundogan, and Walker to lead for value. Gundogan could beat the other two if he can haul in one game, but I expect him to be rotated in one or two games, so he’ll have less of a chance to do so. Both Ederson and Walker will get consistent minutes and be good, steady picks with a low ceiling. Dias will likely follow just behind them and even if Ake gets 2-3 starts, he could still appear in the top 5.

For FPL GW4-8, I think there are six great FPL picks from City: KDB, Haaland, Gundogan, Cancelo, Dias, and Walker. I would pick one of KDB and Haaland; personally preferring Haaland unless you decide to go without a City premium. After that, I would go with either Cancelo or Dias in defense; depending on how you feel about the 1.1 million difference between them. Lastly, I would take a pick between Walker and Gundogan. If Ake were fit, I would pick him over either. I’d personally go for Gundogan, due to his high ceiling.

In short, my favorite Man City triple-up for FPL GW4-8 is: Haaland, Gundogan, and Cancelo. Dias and Walker provide cheaper, less explosive options; both are great picks as well.

Thanks for reading! Stay tuned for future City Review articles and follow me for City news on Twitter in the meantime (@4lex_mcfc).

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 4
FPL GW4 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Predicted GW4 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
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FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
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Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

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