As you would know already, Everton and Villa double in both FPL GW36 and GW37. Are they worth investing in? If so, who should we go for? Let’s try to find out.
All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.
Abbreviations used:
- xG – Expected Goals
- xGC – Expected Goals Conceded
- xA – Expected Assists
- npxG – Non-penalty Expected Goals
- xGI – Expected Goal Involvement, i.e., xG+xA
- npxGI – Non-penalty Expected Goal Involvement, i.e., npxG+xA
State of Fixtures from FPL GW36 to FPL GW38
Before proceeding any further, let’s have a look at the fixture schedule. Fixture difficulty rating is according to the Official FPL website.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 36 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit drafts, captaincy, transfer trends, player comparisons, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
Top FPL Gameweek 36 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics ~ Link to metrics
EVERTON
First up, let’s look at Everton’s numbers at both ends of the pitch since Lampard took over, i.e., since GW 24 and also the last 6 GWs to identify the recent trends. League rank for each stat in the respective period is given in brackets.
Though there has been a significant improvement in the numbers in the last 6 GWs, it’s still nothing to write home about. That said, we have often seen teams fighting for survival doing better than those teams with nothing left to play for at this stage in the past seasons. The next four opponents fall into the latter category and Everton have displayed a fighting spirit in the more recent games, particularly against Chelsea and Liverpool. Also, some of their players have been posting impressive underlying numbers lately.
Their away form could be a matter of some concern though, having lost all six away games under Lampard and they face Leicester and Watford away from home in GW 36. That said, we could probably expect some rotation from Leicester following their Conference League semi-final away leg against Roma on Thursday. Watford, meanwhile, have lost 11 successive games on home turf and their hopes of avoiding relegation are gone.
Richarlison (£7.5) has been among the points lately, scoring 35 in the last 6 GWs with only 7 players faring better. He had an elite xGI per 90 of 0.87 in the last 6 GWs which is only bettered by Jesus among all players who played a minimum of 300 minutes in that period.
His non-penalty numbers have been great as well with a npxGI per 90 of 0.61, which makes him 10th on that list. He is indeed a great pick for the run-in. However, making an early move for him is not advised as the FA are reportedly investigating his flare incident.
Gordon (£4.6) has posted an impressive npxGI per 90 of 0.49 in the last 6 GWs, making him 10th among midfielders who have played a minimum of 300 minutes in that period. Meanwhile, his more expensive teammate, Gray (£5.4) only makes 31st with a npxGI per 90 of 0.32 in that period.
Gordon also has the majority of the set-pieces in his locker and his GW 36 opponents, Leicester and Watford are the worst and the 4th worst respectively for xG SetPlay Conceded of all teams so far. Also, only Burnley have conceded more crosses and more chances from the left flank than Watford this season. He is probably the best cheap asset for those looking to Bench Boost in GW 36.
Mykolenko (£4.9m) has posted an npxGI per 90 of 0.14 in the last 6 GWs – fairly decent for a defender of his price. He is on some set-pieces as well. His potential would rise, playing as an advanced wing-back, if Lampard sticks with the three-at-the-back system he used against Chelsea.
Though Everton’s defensive numbers don’t inspire much confidence, the return of Mina (£4.9) could be a big boost as we saw in the Chelsea game. The Ukrainian could be a decent differential, especially for those looking to Bench Boost in GW 36.
The caveat with picking Everton players is that we are probably putting a little too much trust on the recent small sample size of data.
Further Read: FPL Budget Forwards Analysis- Pukki vs Mateta vs Nketiah vs Dennis
ASTON VILLA
Let’s look at Villa’s numbers since Gerrard took over, i.e., since GW 12 and also the last 6 GWs to identify the recent trends. League rank for each stat in the respective period is given in brackets.
Despite a few disappointing results lately, we could see that Villa’s underlying numbers have been fine. However, the Liverpool fixture puts me off in GW 36. Villa have mostly failed so far to do well against teams better than them. In 14 games against the current top 8 teams, Villa’s record reads W1-D1-L12.
Also, Burnley won’t probably be an easy opponent at Turf Moor given the current circumstances. Then comes Man City away in GW 38. So, it makes sense for those planning to Free Hit in GW 37 to avoid Villa assets for now and pick them in GW 37. Even for those of us who don’t have the luxury of a Free Hit, I think it makes more sense to go for them in GW 37 rather than now and probably get rid in GW 38.
Cash’s (£5.3) underlying numbers have been good under Gerrard, posting an npxGI per 90 of 0.17. As we already saw, Villa’s defensive numbers have been mostly good. It’s worth noting that Burnley, who they also face in GW 37, have conceded the most crosses and the most chances from the left flank of all teams so far.
Also, the other GW 37 opponent, Crystal Palace have so far had a massive dip in performances away from home. Their xG per game drops from 1.72 at home to 1.12 away from home and xGC per game rises from 1.07 at home to 1.48 away from home.
Now, let’s look at the underlying numbers of the attacking options we have from Villa.
The recent dip in numbers makes Coutinho (£7.1) less appealing. Also, we could keep seeing him subbed off early for Buendia as Gerrard has admitted that both of them can’t play in the same team. The return of Digne would mean that he is on even less set-pieces now.
That said, Coutinho is still a good option on an FPL GW37 Free Hit given the caliber of the player he is. On the pitch, he is still demanding the ball and trying to make things happen. Maybe, non-Free Hitters could still look elsewhere.
Ramsey’s (4.7) numbers are good for the price, but I think Gordon offers much more. The underlying numbers suggest the same as we saw earlier.
As you could see above, Watkins (£7.5) has been posting great underlying numbers lately and is on penalties when Ings is not on the pitch. If I were to pick a single Villa attacker, I would probably go with him.
Ings’ (£7.7) numbers in the last 6 GWs should be weighted very lightly as he only played 139 minutes in that period. However, his underlying numbers have been good in the long term as well. It’s the minutes that has always been a concern.
That could potentially change if Bailey, who was taken off against Norwich with an ankle injury, is out for some time. In that case, we could see a significant rise in Ings’ minutes given Gerrard’s admission that Buendia can’t play in the same team as Coutinho, making him an exciting punt.
Thanks for reading. Hope this was helpful. Good luck for GW 36.
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 36:
FPL Budget Forwards Analysis- Pukki vs Mateta vs Nketiah vs Dennis
Best FPL GW36 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW36 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Free Hit GW36 vs Free Hit GW37 Analyzed With Drafts | FH Guide
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