Now we’re approaching the end of the FPL season, we have a lot of data to work with to help decide which players to bring in for this final stretch. The current top three (City, Liverpool, Chelsea) have some very promising assets to prioritize bringing in. As well as this, there are some upcoming doubles to target in preparation for a Free Hit or Bench Boost. This week, our player comparisons ahead of FPL GW31 are-
- Robertson vs Cancelo vs James
- Barnes vs Maddison
- Havertz vs Mount
All stats and heatmaps are from FFScout.
Robertson (£7.3m) vs Cancelo (£6.9m) vs James (£6.2m)
Though usually not in FPL managers’ teams to accommodate Trent, Robertson has had a brilliant season thus far. He now surely competes for the third Liverpool slot, and with Trent a potential doubt he has been the most transferred in player ahead of GW31.
However, there is competition for the premium defender spots. Cancelo has been as nailed as he could be in Pep’s City team who will be pushing for the Premier League trophy. He is currently the 2nd highest scoring defender in the game and the 4th highest scoring player overall.
Reece James has had less playing time due to injury, but is starting to return to full fitness. With Chelsea’s great fixture run, he is a player who could offer great rewards.
Robertson vs Cancelo vs James: The Stats
| Robertson | Cancelo | James | |
| Starts / Minutes | 22 / 1937 | 27 / 2418 | 15 / 1188) |
| Total Points (per 90) | 142 (6.33) | 162 (5.75) | 109 (7.88) |
| Clean Sheets | 13 | 15 | 6 |
| Goals Conceded | 16 | 17 | 9 |
| Goals | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| xG (per 90) | 1.11 (0.05) | 3.36 (0.12) | 2.75 (0.20) |
| Big Chances (per 90) | 1 (0.04) | 2 (0.07) | (0.22) |
| Goal Attempts (per 90) | 12 (0.53) | 60 (2.13) | 23 (1.66) |
| Shots on Target (per 90) | 5 (0.22) | 20 (0.71) | 8 (0.58) |
| Pen. Area Touches (per 90) | 79 (3.52) | 74 (2.63) | 46 (3.32) |
| Assists / FPL Assists | 10 / 1 | 5 / 3 | 6 / 0 |
| xA (per 90) | 4.58 (0.20) | 4.70 (0.17) | 2.73 (0.20) |
| Chances Created (per 90) | 46 (2.05) | 28 (0.99) | 32 (2.31) |
| Big Chances Created (per 90) | 9 (0.40) | 5 (0.18) | 6 (0.43) |
| xGI (per 90) | 5.69 (0.25) | 8.06 (0.29) | 5.48 (0.40) |
| Goal Involvement | 19 | 10 | 36 |
| FPL Goal Involvement | 21 | 16 | 36 |
All three have registered some very good stats this season, making them all enticing picks.
- Robertson has had the most penalty area touches of all defenders this season.
- He is also 2nd for chances created and big chances created.
- 3rd for xA, 4th for xA per 90.
Therefore, he really picks himself as a Trent replacement, with Liverpool pushing for the Premier League trophy.
Overall, Cancelo is:
- 1st among defenders for goal attempts and shots on target,
- 2nd for overall xG, xA, and xGI. For penalty area touches
- 3rd among FPL defenders for penalty area touches
- He also makes the top 10 for chances created, big chances created, and xA per 90
It’s clear that Cancelo has had a brilliant season, and these numbers are hard to ignore.
Among all defenders, James:
- Comes inside the top 10 for goal attempts, shots on target, chances created, and penalty area touches
- Has scored the most goals of any defender this season
- 2nd for xG per 90
- 3rd for big chances created
- 4th for chances created per 90
- 5th for xGI and shots on target per 90
Despite having less minutes, James has been an explosive asset, matching Robertson for 5 double digit hauls.
Robertson’s Maps
As well as being an attacking wing-back, Robertson takes corners.
Cancelo’s Maps
Cancelo also has the capability of playing on either side.
James’ Maps
James also has a similar heat map, and can take corners.
| Liverpool | Man City | Chelsea | |
| W / D / L | 21 / 6 / 2 | 22 / 4 / 3 | 17 / 8 / 3 |
| Goals | 75 | 68 | 57 |
| xG | 78.78 | 74.20 | 49.93 |
| Big Chances | 113 | 92 | 68 |
| Goal Attempts | 555 | 536 | 397 |
| Shots Inside Box | 380 | 377 | 257 |
| Shots on Target | 199 | 190 | 145 |
| Crosses / Successful | 679 / 165 | 675 / 134 | 535 / 111 |
| Goals Conceded | 20 | 18 | 19 |
| xG Conceded | 30.04 | 19.38 | 28.16 |
| Shots on Target Conceded | 66 | 83 | 87 |
Liverpool come in as the strongest attack so far, with City closely behind. Chelsea are consistently in the top 5 for attacking numbers, but Robertson and Cancelo come out on top if we consider team performance.
City have conceded the fewest goals with the lowest xGC, while Liverpool and Chelsea have over-performed this stat. Therefore, clean sheet points look promising for all three assets.
| Liverpool | Man City | Chelsea |
| WAT | bur | BRE |
| mci | LIV | sou |
| MUN | BHA | ARS |
| EVE | WAT | WHU |
| new | lee | eve |
| TOT | NEW | WOL |
| sou | whu | mun |
| WOL | AVL | WAT |
Liverpool are very strong defensively, but maybe a double-up of Trent and Robbo is risky when we have games such as City, United, and Spurs left to play. Despite this, with an away game against Villa left to reschedule, targeting the title contenders is still a great strategy.
City do have a nicer fixture run than Liverpool, with a game against Wolves due to be rearranged. Sticking with Cancelo for the remainder of the season loos like a great option here.
Chelsea similarly have a favourable fixture run, despite a handful of tricky games. What is really appealing about Chelsea assets is their upcoming doubles, where games against Leicester and Leeds need to be fit in.
Robertson vs Cancelo vs James: The Verdict
Out of the three, Cancelo is my favourite. With City having a great set of fixtures until the end of the season, he’s a great asset to hold. Hopefully, he should continue to be nailed in that starting line-up as City push for the title.
With Liverpool also vying for the win, Robertson is a great pick in that third Liverpool slot. I think Trent’s fitness update has been quite promising, meaning he is in contention to be back for Watford, so I would hold off moving Trent for Robbo. With some congested UCL fixtures, there is also the risk that Robertson will soon be rotated with Tsimikas.
With some doubts about his fitness, I would hold off buying Reece James for now. However, with some doubles left to reschedule and a great fixture run coming up, he is going to be a priority transfer target over the next few weeks.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
Barnes (£6.6m) vs Maddison (£6.8m)
Leicester have a very good double in GW33 of Newcastle and Everton, and with their top midfielders hitting great form it has proven tricky to separate Barnes and Maddison.
Barnes vs Maddison: The Stats
| Barnes | Maddison | |
| Starts / Minutes | 19 / 1572 | 20 / 1725 |
| Total Points (per 90) | 88 (4.85) | 118 (5.94) |
| Goals | 3 | 8 |
| xG (per 90) | 4.63 (0.26) | 6.21 (0.31) |
| Big Chances (per 90) | 7 (0.39) | 6 (0.30) |
| Goal Attempts (per 90) | 47 (2.59) | 54 (2.72) |
| Shots on Target (per 90) | 19 (1.05) | 24 (1.21) |
| Pen. Area Touches (per 90) | 104 (5.73) | 55 (2.77) |
| Assists / FPL Assists | 6 / 2 | 3 / 3 |
| xA (per 90) | 2.15 (0.12) | 2.29 (0.11) |
| Chances Created (per 90) | 21 (1.16) | 29 (1.46) |
| Big Chances Created (per 90) | 5 (0.28) | 7 (0.35) |
| xGI (per 90) | 6.78 (0.37) | 8.41 (0.42) |
| Goal Involvement | 35 | 34 |
| FPL Goal Involvement | 42 | 44 |
Both are quite close in numbers, though Maddison comes out on top more often. He is over-performing his expected goals, whereas Barnes is under-performing.
In the last 6 games (per 90)- Barnes vs Maddison
- Pen. area touches = 5.93 vs 1.18
- Goal attempts = 3.25 vs 2.36
- Shots on target = 1.15 vs 0.89
- xG = 0.28 vs 0.17
- Chances created = 0.96 vs 2.07
- Big chances created = 0.19 vs 0.59
- xA = 0.18 vs 0.09
- xGI = 0.46 vs 0.26
Although Maddison has played less minutes, we can see that Barnes has been showing better numbers recently, though Maddison has scored 2 goals compared to his 1.
Barnes’ Maps
Maddison’s Maps
Maddison also has the advantage of being on free kicks and corners.
Leicester at a Glance
| W / D / L | 10 / 6 / 11 (10th) |
| Goals | 42 (8th) |
| xG | 38.49 (12th) |
| Big Chances | 52 (8th) |
| Goal Attempts | 319 (14th) |
| Shots Inside Box | 199 (16th) |
| Shots on Target | 121 (10th) |
It’s a fairly mixed bag for Leicester’s offensive record this season. They have a great amount of goals, but some of their attacking stats do fall behind. However, with a double coming up, it’s important to look at the fixtures.
| mun | CRY | new, eve | AVL | tot | EVE | wat | SOU |
Though you could probably delay a Leicester transfer until after their United game, their fixture run until the end of the season looks great. They do face Tottenham, but it’s definitely possible for their attackers to get something out of that.
Their double against Newcastle and Everton is very favourable. They have just 9 clean sheets between them, and in general have been quite poor defensively. Newcastle have found recent form, but Leicester will still be the favourites here.
Looking at this, a Leicester attacker could be a great hold for the rest of the season. They also have games against Norwich (H) and Chelsea (A) to reschedule.
Barnes vs Maddison: The Verdict
I think Barnes is the safer pick, who has shown great recent form and is in general guaranteed more minutes. Although Maddison does have some great stats, he has over-performed slightly. A Leicester midfielder is a great pick for the upcoming fixtures, and if I make a move for one it will most likely be Barnes. However, I still think Maddison is a strong option who can still deliver some returns, but he’s more of a minutes risk.
Further Read: Teams & Players to Target in FPL Between GW31-34 | Fixture Analysis
Havertz (£7.9m) vs Mount (£7.5m)
In the last six gameweeks, Havertz has scored 4 goals and has been fairly nailed in the starting line-up. With Chelsea having a great fixture run and favourable games left to reschedule, he is currently the 2nd most transferred-in player ahead of GW31.
Another big target is Mount, who has bagged 8 goals this season and is in with a great shout of having a nailed starting position.
Havertz vs Mount: The Stats
| Havertz | Mount | |
| Starts / Minutes | 16 / 1306 | 19 / 1666 |
| Total Points (per 90) | 85 (5.63) | 123 (6.30) |
| Goals | 6 | 8 |
| xG (per 90) | 5.69 (0.38) | 6.16 (0.32) |
| npxG (per 90) | 5.69 (0.38) | 5.37 (0.28) |
| Big Chances (per 90) | 10 (0.66) | 8 (0.41) |
| Goal Attempts (per 90) | 37 (2.45) | 49 (2.51) |
| Shots on Target (per 90) | 16 (1.06) | 22 (1.13) |
| Pen. Area Touches (per 90) | 89 (5.89) | 93 (4.77) |
| Assists / FPL Assists | 2 / 1 | 7 / 1 |
| xA (per 90) | 1.19 (0.08) | 5.16 (0.26) |
| Chances Created (per 90) | 8 (0.53) | 39 (2.00) |
| Big Chances Created (per 90) | 2 (0.14) | 8 (0.41) |
| xGI (per 90) | 6.88 (0.46) | 11.32 (0.58) |
| npxGI (per 90) | 6.90 (0.46) | 10.50 (0.54) |
| Goal Involvement | 22 | 37 |
| FPL Goal Involvement | 25 | 39 |
Overall, Mount does come out on top with his numbers. He has slightly over-performed his expected goals, but he could be on penalties if Jorginho isn’t on the pitch.
Havertz has clearly hit great attacking form, and if he can continue to start then we could expect him to carry on this form in the last part of the season. However, Mount has been the more consistent player thus far.
In the last 6 gameweeks (per 90):
- Pen. area touches = 7.72 vs 3.86
- Goal attempts = 2.41 vs 2.70
- Shots on target = 1.93 vs 0.77
- xG = 0.61 vs 0.32
- Chances created = 0.96 vs 1.93
- Big chances created = 0 vs 0.77
- xA = 0.12 vs 0.12
- xGI = 0.73 vs 0.44
Havertz’s form looks great!
Havertz’s Maps
Havertz is also out-of-position in FPL, as he usually plays striker/centre-forward.
Mount’s Maps
As well as being second-choice penalty taker, Mount can take free kicks and corners.
Chelsea at a Glance
| W / D / L | 17 / 8 / 3 (3rd) |
| Goals | 57 (3rd) |
| xG | 49.93 (6th) |
| Big Chances | 68 (5th) |
| Goal Attempts | 397 (6th) |
| Shots Inside Box | 257 (5th) |
| Shots on Target | 145 (3rd) |
Chelsea are consistently up there with the best attacks in the league, and looking at their upcoming fixtures makes them even more appealing.
| BRE | sou | ARS | WHU | eve | WOL | mun | WAT |
Despite the odd tricky game, it’s a great run of fixtures for Chelsea until the end of the season. With games in hand against Leicester and Leeds, Chelsea’s attack looks like a great target!
Havertz vs Mount: The Verdict
This is quite a close call, and I think both can deliver attacking returns over the next few weeks. Given his recent form, I would bring in Havertz over Mount. He should be fairly nailed in the starting line-up, though Tuchel could hit FPL managers with some unwanted surprises. Mount is also a great option here.
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 31:
FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
FPL GW31 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
AllAboutFPL FPL GW31 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC
Teams & Players to Target in FPL Between GW31-34 | Fixture Analysis
FPL GW31 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Gameweek 31 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell
FPL GW31 Transfer Trends And Best Transfer Combinations
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures
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Sophie Wellington
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