With many managers going big at the back to accommodate Liverpool and Man City players, opting for a budget striker is a great way to fund this. Many stand-out options now have great upcoming doubles, so could offer real value for money as we come to the end of the FPL season. In this article, we take a detailed look at the best FPL Budget Forwards till the end of the season and compare them.
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Here’s a thread detailing the upcoming double fixtures:
FPL Budget Forwards Comparison- Pukki vs Mateta vs Nketiah vs Dennis
Considering these upcoming doubles, the budget strikers I’m comparing this week are:
- Teemu Pukki (£6m)
- Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.3m)
- Eddie Nketiah (£5.5m)
- Emmanuel Dennis (£5.8m)
[All stats taken from FFSCOUT]
FPL Budget Forwards Comparison- The Stats
| Pukki | Mateta | Nketiah | Dennis | |
| Starts / Minutes | 33 / 2898 | 11 / 1022 | 4/ 507 | 29 / 2525 |
| Points (per 90) | 128 (3.97) | 50 (4.55) | 33 (5.87) | 132 (4.72) |
| Goals | 10 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| xG (per 90) | 10.36 (0.32) | 5.11 (0.45) | 2.39 (0.37) | 7.58 (0.27) |
| npxG (per 90) | 8 (0.25) | 5.11 (0.45) | 2.39 (0.37) | 7.58 (0.27) |
| Big Chances (per 90) | 12 (0.37) | 5 (0.44) | 4 (0.62) | 9 (0.32) |
| Goal Attempts (per 90) | 58 (1.80) | 31 (2.73) | 18 (2.78) | 60(2.14) |
| Shots on Target (per 90) | 23 (0.71) | 15 (1.32) | 8 (1.23) | 26 (0.93) |
| Pen. Area Touches (per 90) | 139 (4.32) | 51 (4.49) | 42 (6.48) | 145 (5.17) |
| Assists / FPL Assists | 3 / 1 | 1 / 0 | 1 / 0 | 6 / 1 |
| xA (per 90) | 2.64 (0.08) | 0.53 (0.05) | 0.48 (0.08) | 2.05 (0.07) |
| Chances Created (per 90) | 25 (0.78) | 5 (0.46) | 10 (1.78) | 33 (1.18) |
| Big Chances Created (per 90) | 8 (0.25) | 1 (0.09) | 2 (0.36) | 7 (0.25) |
| xGI (per 90) | 13 (0.40) | 5.64 (0.50) | 2.87 (0.44) | 9.63 (0.34) |
| npxGI (per 90) | 10.60 (0.33) | 5.60 (0.49) | 2.90 (0.45) | 9.60 (0.34) |
| Goal Involvement | 62 | 28 | 25 | 57 |
| FPL Goal Involvement | 67 | 28 | 25 | 61 |
Both Pukki and Dennis have 10 goals this season, though Pukki does have a higher xG than Dennis. Their per 90 stats are very close, and it is hard to separate them. Pukki does have the advantage of being on penalties, however. They also do have very high goal involvements.
Mateta does have a smaller sample size to work with, but we can see that he has been really impressive in the games he has had so far. It’s unfortunate that his starting position isn’t certain, but for £5.3m he could well be worth a punt.
Nketiah has recently come into the Arsenal starting line-up but has impressed, meaning he could be a bargain route into the Arsenal attack. There is little data to be able to analyse here, but looking further into Arsenal’s attacking threat will be helpful.
Further Read: Free Hit GW36 vs Free Hit GW37 Analyzed With Drafts | FH Guide
FPL Budget Forwards Comparison- Heatmaps
Pukki’s Maps
Mateta’s Maps
Nketiah’s Maps
Dennis’s Maps
Norwich vs Palace vs Arsenal vs Watford
| Norwich | Crystal Palace | Arsenal | Watford | |
| W / D / L | 5 / 6 / 23 | 9/ 14 / 11 | 20 / 3 / 11 | 6 / 4 / 23 |
| Goals | 22 | 43 | 54 | 32 |
| xG | 31.97 | 48.22 | 61.28 | 41.21 |
| Big Chances | 32 | 55 | 61 | 52 |
| Goal Attempts | 336 | 368 | 524 | 366 |
| Shots in Box | 181 | 268 | 332 | 227 |
| Shots on Target | 98 | 128 | 169 | 116 |
As we can see, Arsenal comfortably come out on top as the best attacking team, and after crucial victories against Chelsea and United they are favourites to secure the 4th spot in the League. If Nketiah keeps his place, this looks very promising for such a cheap option.
Crystal Palace often come in around the middle of the table for attacking stats, so again Mateta offers great value if they hit a good run of games.
Norwich and Watford are currently in a relegation battle, this tells us that both attacks have been poor this season – and under-performing their expected goals, particularly Norwich. Overall, Watford do have better-attacking numbers, with Norwich coming in last for shots on target, big chances, shots inside the box, and goal attempts among all teams.
Further Read: Best FPL GW36 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
Upcoming Fixtures
| Gameweek | Norwich | Crystal Palace | Arsenal | Watford | |
| DGW36 | WHU, lei | WAT | LEE, tot | cry, EVE | |
| DGW37 | wol | avl, eve | new | LEI | |
| GW38 | TOT | MUN | EVE | che |
Palace do have some positive fixtures until the end of the season, with only the final game against United being a concern. Overall, these are great fixtures for such a cheap differential, but there’s no guarantee Mateta will start all games.
Arsenal also have favourable fixtures until the end of the season. The game against Tottenham could be a tight one, but that is part of a double where they also play Leeds. The following games against Newcastle and Everton also look positive. Nketiah is a minutes risk, but if he continues to impress then hopefully that striker spot remains his.
Watford have a fairly favourable double in GW36, with a crucial game against Burnley this weekend.
Further Read: Free Hit GW36 vs Free Hit GW37 Analyzed With Drafts | FH Guide
The Verdict
Right now, Nketiah is my favourite choice out of these budget forwards. At just £5.5m, he offers a bargain route into an Arsenal team who are vying to keep hold of 4th place and come out comfortably on top in attacking numbers compared to the other 3 teams here. It is unfortunate that we have a small sample size, and although there is a longer term risk of minutes with Lacazette, right now it seems like that striker spot is his. He is a player I have made a move for and plan to keep for the rest of the season. Hopefully, he puts in a good performance against West Ham and keeps hold of his starting place.
If you’re not willing to risk Nketiah, both Pukki and Dennis fit the bill here. They are very similar in stats per 90, but Dennis does have the nicer upcoming fixtures, including the DGW36. However, Pukki is slightly more nailed, and many FPL managers will be left frustrated by Watford’s previous doubles. He also has the advantage of being on penalties!
I would personally prioritize bringing in one of the other options over Mateta to attack the double gameweeks – especially if you’re Bench Boosting in GW36. However, if you already have him he would be a good hold as he has a favorable fixture against Watford in GW36. At just £5.3m, he is definitely a bargain player who has shown a lot of promise. Unfortunately, his starting position isn’t nailed, so there is a rotation risk. If you don’t have the Bench Boost to play, I think he’s great to have in that 3rd striker slot. I would look at bringing him in for GW37, and then we can always have more information on the predicted line-ups for Palace’s double, but overall he is a great differential pick.
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 36:
Best FPL GW36 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW36 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Free Hit GW36 vs Free Hit GW37 Analyzed With Drafts | FH Guide
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Sophie Wellington
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