FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

After two straight double GWs, we head into a single Gameweek, with just 4 fixtures. This is and will be the shortest matchday of the season. It is a hard task to get our strategies right for this week, especially considering the fact that two more doubles are around the corner. However, that is why we are here. In this blog, we bring you five of the best differential picks to consider for FPL GW30.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW30 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Alexandre Lacazette vs Aston Villa(A)

Arsenal are one of the most in-form teams in the league. Before the Liverpool game, the Gunners had won 5 games on the bounce. During this run, Alexandre Lacazette returned a goal or an assist in every game. In all, he registered 5 assists and a goal in that time. Furthermore, the striker hasn’t blanked in his last 4 away matches.

The above graphic shows data of players from Gameweek 16 onwards. As we can see, Lacazette has the 5th best xG in this period. He is also joint 7th best for big chances in that time. The Arsenal man has also fared well as far as the assists are concerned. He tops the charts for assists, bagging eight in all.

Mikel Arteta didn’t fancy picking the Frenchman in the starting eleven in the beginning of the season. As a result of which he was up and down in the starting eleven. However, since GW15 onwards he has been a regular in the side. Since his inclusion, no Arsenal player has had more big chances than Lacazette. The Arsenal Number 9 also tops the charts for xG and Xpoints.

The Gunners take on Aston Villa in FPL GW30. Steven Gerrard’s men have only won 2 of their last 7 home games. They are third-worst for big chances conceded at home since GW14. Given Lacazette’s form away from home, Aston Villa seem to be a match made in heaven to extend the good run!

Further Read: Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures

Harvey Barnes vs Brentford(H)

It has been a disappointing season for Harvey Barnes, as well as for Leicester. However, both he and his team have shown glimpses of returning to form. Prior to defeat to Arsenal, the Foxes did win two games on the spin. It is only the second time this season that they have two games on the bounce.

Barnes has 3 assists and a goal in his 5 starts. He would have got himself a goal against Arsenal too were it not for a wonder save from Ramsdale. Furthermore, six of Harvey Barnes’ ten attacking runs have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.

It is not just Barnes that tends to do well against such teams. Brendan Rodgers’ men as a whole have only lost once to teams in the latter half of the table. As we can see from the above image, eight of Leicester’s last twelve fixtures are against those teams. To add icing on the cake Leicester have three double Gameweeks lined up before the end of the season. Therefore, Barnes is a long-term investment.

Harvey Barnes- Key Stats

• 10th highest for shots in the box among midfielders
• Highest for shots in the box among Leicester players
• 9th best xG among players costing less than or equal to £6.5

Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Blank Gameweek 30 Guide

Gabriel Martinelli vs Aston Villa(A)

Martinelli is the second player from Arsenal to make the list. Despite losing to Liverpool, Arsenal’s form can’t be overlooked. The Gunners do have some winnable fixtures coming up. Adding on to that, they also have a double upcoming in GW33. As a result of which now is the perfect time to invest in them.

Martinelli has 3 goals in his last 4 away matches. Martinelli is someone who gets on the end of chances in goal-scoring positions. This is justified by the number of shots he has had in the box. He is second only to Saka among Arsenal players. However, Saka has played more minutes than the Brazilian.

Aston Villa have an apparent weakness down their left-hand side. They have conceded 30% of their goals through that side. No side has conceded more percentage of chances down that wing. As we can see from the above graphic, that is exactly where Martinelli operates. The Arsenal man will be looking to exploit the weak point!

Further Read: FPL GW30 Preview & Comparisons From Actual & Expected Performance

Luke Thomas vs Brentford(H)

Thomas is our second Leicester player on the list this week. As shown earlier, the Foxes have some amazing run of games coming up till the end of the season. Brendan Rodgers’ men haven’t been great defensively all season. However, they have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches. In all, they have kept 5 shut outs, 4 of them have come at home. Looking at it from a short term perspective, each of their next two home games are against teams in the bottom half of the table. There is therefore a great chance of them keeping clean sheets in one, if not both games. It is indeed wise to bring in a defender from the Midlands team.

Leicester have had a lot of injuries at the back this season. However, one player who has been a constant feature has been Luke Thomas. Costing a mere £4.3, the young fullback has started every game since GW13. He has registered an assist so far and has been part of the team in all the five games in which they have kept clean sheets.

Luke Thomas- Key Stats

• Since GW13, second highest for big chances created(3) among Leicester players
• Third highest for BPS(237) among his compatriots in that time
• Only 5 defenders have created more big chances than Thomas across the league

Further Read: Leicester City FPL Assets To Consider From FPL BGW 30 And Onwards

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW30(<1% TSB):

Christian Eriksen vs Leicester(A)

What a sight it was to see Eriksen back on the football field! The Dane came back into action against Newcastle in GW27. After that game, he has started and completed 90 minutes in both matches. Therefore, he goes into FPL GW30 after back to back 90 minute games behind him, which in itself is a big deal.

The Dane registered an assist against Burnley, last time out. It was a tremendous cross with his left foot. We all know Eriksen’s prowess from set pieces. During his time at Spurs, he was consistent with assists from set pieces. By now it is well known that Leicester’s Achilles heel is dead ball situations. 21 out of the 45 goals the foxes have conceded are from set pieces. This attributes to a league high 47% of the goals given away. Meanwhile, Brentford have been very good from dead ball situations all season. Sixteen out of their thirty two goals have been from dead ball situations( including penalties). Eriksen is on all set pieces now and it wouldn’t at all be a surprise to see him get an attacking return again this week!

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 30:

Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures
Best FPL GW30 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Blank Gameweek 30 Guide
FPL GW30 Preview & Comparisons From Actual & Expected Performance
Leicester City FPL Assets To Consider From FPL BGW 30 And Onwards
FPL GW29 Sunday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW29 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL BGW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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