Welcome back to my FPL Gameweek 16 matchups article where I use my coach’s lens to analyze futbol matchups to inform our #FPL decisions. I have dearly missed putting articles out recently, so I am very much looking forward to sharing these long-overdue thoughts.
Data sourced from @FFScout w/ permission and gratitude.
This week’s article is a combination of a scouting report and matchup analysis. I have been working on some of these elements for a few weeks so some of the data may not be of current gameweeks, but I believe the concepts still apply.
Even when I am unable to publish an article, these ideas are always discussed weekly on @NetThatHaul.
Check out this week’s episode:
FPL Gameweek 16 matchups
Emile Smith-Rowe
The narrative around ESR is that he is overperforming his stats because he has 4 goals from only 15 shots in the box, 11 shots on target, an xG of 2.13, and only a marginally better xGoT of 2.19. Unremarkable numbers for 1069 minutes of gameplay. Interestingly, ESR blanked in his first 5 gameweeks, before exploding for 12 points in GW6. He went on to return in 3 of the next 5 before blanking in 12 and 13. Confusingly, his stats dropped during this more productive time:
- Min/xG- 527.9 to 605.7
- min/xA- 747.9 to 951.8
- min/xGI- 309.5 to 370.1
What then, is responsible for the change in production?
Smith-Rowe has started at the #10 spot in 5 of 13 matches this season and has blanked in all but 1 of those, gameweek 9 against Aston Villa (13 pts). By contrast, ESR has started on the left in 7 gameweeks this season and has scored in 4 of those, including 2 double-digit hauls. The heatmaps below show ESR’s positioning in GWs 1-5 compared to 6-11.
In general, when ESR lines up at the 10, he tends to be moved primarily to the right through the course of the game. There is some movement also to a deeper position on the left side.
Enter Martin Ødegaard. The heatmaps below show Ødegaard’s impact on ESR. When the Norwegian youngster plays as one of the defensive mids behind ESR, he tends to move forward into ESRs space, pushing ESR to the flanks.
This curbs ESRs attacking threat because Ødegaard is occupying the space into which ESR would normally run.
Since GW6 Ødegaard has started at CDM only once. In the 7 GWs where the Norwegian has either not started or started at the 10 positions, ESR has 50 fantasy points. The tactical setup this provides seems to make more sense for the team in general and ESR is flourishing in it. Scattered pockets of possession make way for synergistic clouds. We can see both players’ defined area of influence. ESR holds back with Ødegaard’s line before making his late runs at an angle.
Now we will look at how this tactical dynamic plays out on the pitch. The hypothesis here is that ESRs role is like that of Demarai Gray’s at the beginning of the season. I expect Arteta to design plays to isolate ESR. He will get few chances, but he is meant to receive them in space. The instinctive ESR is meant to pounce on those and deliver and he has done so this season. You can read the analysis explaining why Gray was outperforming his stats here:
To illustrate Ødegaard’s effect, I have clipped some images from the Burnley match in GW5. The first shows a play that is overloaded on the right side. This is because ESR has shifted to that side to be involved in bringing the ball up the wing. The set up seems off to me. Auba should be pushing the backline deeper and ESR should be where Auba is, not in the space between the lines plugging passing lanes.
With no space, ESR’s role is merely to pull the defense wide. His speed is always a threat for opposing defenders making ESR quite useful for the Spanish manager, and less useful for FPL managers.
This opens space for Ødegaard. Ødegaard is better with the ball at his feet than ESR is and this could be a tactical consideration for Arteta. If Arteta needs a player to bring the ball into space and direct the creativity, the Norwegian will be that player.
In my opinion, Arsenal are at their best when ESR plays in the half space on the left and Ødegaard in a central attacking position. This shape plays to the Norwegian’s natural ability to hold the ball and find clever passes, and it plays to ESR’s natural ability to put defenders on their heels with near post runs from the inside left. Lastly, this also keeps the left wing open higher up the pitch for a wingback to get crosses in, effectively giving Arsenal a front 5. I see this as the future for Arsenal and therefore believe ESR is a great value pick long term.
Chelsea Wingbacks
Alonso flew into many FPL teams in the first 6 gameweeks as he amassed a mouth-watering 6.5 points per start. During that time his only blanks were against Liverpool and Manchester City in GWs 3 and 6 respectively. He made up for those 2 blanks with 2 double-digit hauls as well.
In his 3 most recent appearances against MUN, WAT, and WHU Alonso has a total of 4 fantasy points. The heat maps below begin to show a potential reason for this.
The 3 most recent games should show half of the touches and passes received as the first 6 gameweeks given half the playing time, but we see the involvement is considerably less than half, especially in the attacking half. Pay particular attention to the GWs 13-15 passes received heatmap. Passes received shows us the player’s involvement in the attack. It has dwindled to almost nothing except for a pocket high and wide on the left.
Reece James has experienced a similar impact in the past 3 matches on the right. The most striking thing to me when I look at his touch heat map is how he is covering much less of the flank recently than he did since returning from injury. He does not go as far forward, and he also does not go as far back. It’s almost as if he has been locked in a cage on the flank just behind the halfway line. Free King James!
So, what is happening recently at Chelsea? I believe Chelsea are struggling against teams that play a back 3. They have faced a back 3 four times this season and the only team they had success against was a 7-0 thrashing of a once barely professional Norwich team. The heat maps indicate that the wingbacks are being held and are not getting beyond the opposing wingbacks, with the slight exception of Alonso on occasion.
The CHE v MUN and CHE v WHU touch heatmaps show how Chelsea have been boxed in recently. They lack penetration and a presence in central midfield. They are sorely missing Kovacic and Kante as shown by the white void in the center. The deep-lying triangles show how United and the Hammers organized their back 5 to play a prevent defense to keep the Chelsea wingbacks at bay.
In their upcoming matches, Chelsea play Leeds, Everton, Wolves, Villa, and Brighton. Leeds could line up in a back 3 given their injuries, and Brighton will certainly also be in a back 3. I love the Chelsea wingbacks against a decimated Leeds team this weekend even if they do play a back 3. The two defenders should really make their money in the 3 middle games against Everton, Wolves and Villa.
Michail Antonio & Jarrod Bowen
My good friend @barCOLEYna posted this very interesting graphic on Twitter the other day showing an inverse relationship between Antonio and Bowen’s share of the team’s xG since GW7.
This graphic will come at no surprise to owners of either asset in FPL, but what did surprise me was the consistency Bowen has showed all season. He has started 14 GWs and has returned in half of those. He can even boast Hauler status with his 2 double-digit returns this season. At £6.5M, he could be everything we wanted and expected Raphinha to be. Not to say Raphinha won’t still become that once again.
Questioning Bowen’s sustainability or consistency was a mistake for me it led to a blind spot. Sometimes it hurts to correct mistakes.
For those wondering whether this inverse relationship will regress, I can’t really say. But what I do believe is that Antonio will begin to see more action than he has recently.
To illustrate this point, I want to turn our attention to a set of heatmaps against 2 shambolic defenses in Newcastle and Leicester in GWs 1 and 2 and compare them with two of the top 5 defenses of Liverpool and Chelsea in GWs 11 and 15.
GW1 shows us that pulling defenders wide is not a new role for him. Against weaker opposition he can pull them wide and then turn them getting behind them up the field. Bowen’s role is less pronounced and mostly outside the box, except for some activity deep in the right corner.
In the difficult matchups against LIV in GW 11 and CHE in GW15, we notice Antonio is still very much involved, however his involvement is deeper than it was against easier opposition. In fact, he may even be more involved against more difficult opponents, but his involvement is to open space for penetration on the opposite side. Defenders must account for him.
The main difference in Bowen’s heat map shows that he is more involved in the more difficult matches.
Antonio remains 2nd in the league for xGoT (6.6) and 4th for shots in the box (34). These stats against the upcoming weaker defenses of BUR, NOR, & WAT in the next 5 could see the big man back to early season form. I like the nailed Antonio to at least match premium players like Cristiano Ronaldo in the next 5 GWs and provide much better value for money.
THE ALCHEMIST
This season, despite starting only 11 matches, Callum Wilson has the most headed goals (3) with the 7th most headed goal attempts (10). He faces a Burnley side who have conceded the 3rd most attempts from set plays (64), the 4th most headed goal attempts (41), and the 4th most aerial duels lost (279).
I like Callum Trollsome to get something g in the air away at Turf Moor.
FPL Philosophy
I will begin posting the weekly FPL Philosophy from @NetThatHaul. For a brief commentary on this and how it relates to FPL please do visit our show and join the Hauler community.
Thank you so much for spending some valuable time with my thoughts. Wishing you all green arrows and warm hearts this weekend.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 16:
Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
FPL GW16 Preview | Team Attacking & Defensive Form and Fixtures
FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
Popular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy
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