Welcome back to our FPL Gameweek 14 captain picks and metrics blog, Although Salah has sort of killed captaincy this season returning pretty much every week there are some decent options emerging over the last few weeks. Diogo Jota and Recce James compete with Salah this time around. Let’s see who tops our metric this week and how close it is.
The metrics has a 12/13 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW12(Is it even a doubt😉)
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 14 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including differentials, review of the previous week, and more.
FPL GW14 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”23″]
Salah once again tops the captaincy poll for fpl gameweek 14 which is hardly a surprise. Diogo Jota has got some attention following his brace against Southampton. Recce James makes his debut in the captaincy poll and watch out where he finishes!
Jamie Vardy makes a return to the top five of our captaincy metric following a brace against Watford in a game where Vardy could have had more!
Harry Kane has also got some decent attention after Spurs had a game postponed and face a Brentford side who are not great defensively over the last few weeks.
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 13 Captain picks
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 19 | 12 | 5 | 3.55 | 1 |
| Jota | 12 | 6 | 6 | 2.79 | 2 |
| Kane | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2.27 | 3 |
| Jamie Vardy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1.92 | 4 |
| James | 8 | 13 | 1 | 1.09 | 5 |
Salah ones again tops the attacking numbers overall. However he has some competition from the likes of Jota and James. Jota has had more big chances(6) during the last six games than Salah whereas James(13) has made more key passes than Salah.
Diogo Jota is second with some interesting numbers, 12 shots in the box, six chances created. six big chances and an xG of 2.79. Very impressive numbers for an FPL asset currently priced below 8.0 Million.
Recce James makes an exciting debut in our captaincy metric finishing third in attacking numbers ahead of two strikers. James has 8 shots inside the box, a whopping 13 chances created and an xG of 1.09(Partly due to the fact he scores stunners)
Jamie Vardy finishes above Kane who is plumb last. Vardy has has 10 shots inside the box, four chances created, three big chances and an xG of 1.92. Whereas, Kane has just 9 shots inside the box, four chances created, three big chances and an xG of 2.27.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW14 Preview
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 73 | 23 | 14.7 | 1 |
| Liverpool (Jota) | 73 | 23 | 14.7 | 1 |
| Spurs (Kane) | 39 | 13 | 8.20 | 5 |
| Leicester (Jamie Vardy) | 46 | 14 | 11.10 | 4 |
| Chelsea (James) | 67 | 20 | 14 | 3 |
Liverpool still dominate the attacking numbers with 73 shots inside the box, 23 big chances, 14.7 xG in the last six games. Chelsea are really close to Liverpool with 67 shots inside the box, 20 big chances, and an xG of 14.
Spurs are woeful with their numbers with a merge xG of 8.20 and just 13 big chances in six games. Leicester too don’t do too great but are slightly above Spurs to finish fourth.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW14 Preview
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW14
| (C)andidate | Drafthound Clean Sheet Odds | Drafthound Odds of Conceding >2.5 Goals | Safety Rank | Explosion Rank | Average Factor of Safety Rank and Explosion Rank | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Everton (vs Salah) | 13% | 39% | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Everton (vs Jota) | 13% | 39% | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Brentford (vs Kane) | 20% | 25% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Southampton (vs Vardy ) | 29% | 22% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Watford(vs James) | 13% | 48% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Watford shipped four goals against Leicester and they were lucky the foxes didn’t score more. The odds very well complements the same giving watford only a 13% chance of keeping a CS, and are 48% likely to concede more than 2.5+ goals. Everton also have a poor CS odds of just 13% against high flying rivals Liverpool, but their odds of conceding 2.5+ goals(39%) is slightly better than Watford.
Brentford have poor defensive numbers over the last few weeks and have a cleansheet odds of just 20% and are 25% for conceding more than 2.5+ goals.
Southampton have the best defensive odds out off all the options with a CS odds of 29% and a chance of conceding 2.5+ goals at 22%
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 64% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Jota | 53% | 4.7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Kane | 70% | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamie Vardy | 55% | 5.4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| James | 65% | 5.8 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2 |
Surprsinlgy Kane dominates the projections with anytime returns of 70% and a points projection of 7.9. Salah and James share the second spot with the Chelsea full back having an anytime retuns percentage of 65% and a projection of 5.8. Salah has a anytime returns percentage of 64 and points projection of 7 against Everton in FPL Gameweek 14.
Vardy finishes fourth whereas Jota surprisingly finishes last in the projections.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW14 Preview
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 14 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Projections Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Jota | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| Kane | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| Jamie Vardy | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| James | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Mo Salah once again tops the ranking but Jota finishes second followed closely by James who ends up third. Salah has slightly killed the fun out of captaincy but with some good options coming up Captaincy should be a level playing field in a few weeks time!
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 14:
FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW14 Preview
FPL GW13 Sunday Fixtures Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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