Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12

Another long international break is over, so it’s finally time to start looking at our FPL squads for GW12 again. Although new manager bounces for Tottenham, Villa, and Norwich may make these assets more appealing, their potential is very unreliable. So, in this week’s player comparisons blog, we’re focusing on fan-favourite players and those who are consistently bagging points.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW12 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 10/11 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW11. Stay tuned for the GW10 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”21″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

[All stats taken from FBREF and FFSCOUT]

FPL GW12 player comparisons

Foden (£8.3m) vs Jota (£7.5m)

Jota seems to be the perfect pick for that third Liverpool slot now that Firmino is confirmed to be out until mid-December. With AFCON also starting in January, Jota could be a brilliant set-and-forget option in a classy Liverpool side. However, Man City are also a very fixture-proof side, and Foden’s starting position seems to be as ‘nailed on’ as it could get.

If you’re looking to move Havertz on soon, these two are your best candidates, especially if Son disappoints in the coming weeks. Or maybe Foden is already in your squad and you’re just not sure if you can pass up on Jota.

Foden vs Jota: The Stats

	Foden	Jota
Goals	3	4
Fantasy Assists / Assists	1 / 1	0 / 1
npxG per 90	0.47	0.56
xA per 90	0.26	0.32
npxG + xA per 90	0.73	0.88
Shots / Shots on Target	15 / 9	22 / 9
Key Passes (per 90)	10 (1.61)	16 (2.13)
% Goal Involvement	36	29
% FPL Goal Involvement	46	29

Jota seems to have the edge stats-wise, but Foden’s numbers are still promising considering he has played 100 less minutes than Jota. Foden’s %GI does give him the edge, but if Jota is guaranteed to start over the next few weeks then this is likely to increase for him.

Foden’s Heatmaps

Jota’s Heatmaps

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City vs Liverpool at a Glance

	City	Liverpool
Goals	20	31
npxG	24.0	27.4
npxG per 90	2.18	2.49
Chances Created	147	163
Goal Attempts	215	195
Shots on Target	59	71

What is clear is, although City have under-performed their xG and Liverpool have over-performed, both teams are performing exceptionally well and an attacking asset from both would be ideal.

Both teams have also had very similar fixture difficulties, so this just shows how difficult it is to separate the two right now, even if Liverpool have proven to have a greater attacking threat thus far.

Man City	Liverpool
EVE	ARS
WHU	SOU
avl	eve
wat	wol
WOL	AVL
LEE	NEW
new	tot
LEI	LEE

Unfortunately, both sides are quite fixture-proof and, other than one or two tricky games, both players have a great run of fixtures coming up.

• Liverpool’s next 8 opponents have conceded 290 chances down the left flank, where Liverpool have created 44% of their chances
• City’s next 8 opponents have conceded 294 chances down the right flank, where City have created 35% of their chances and where Foden plays

As well as this, Liverpool’s next opponents have conceded fewer shots on target than City’s. Again, this just shows how difficult this decision is.

Foden vs Jota: The Verdict

Given the form of City and their next opponents, they definitely have the edge to get high-scoring results. One issue is Pep Roulette, and Jota is definitely more guaranteed to have a starting spot than Foden.

Though Liverpool are returning from a disappointing loss against West Ham, they still have to be the favourites even going into the games against Arsenal and Tottenham – who’s to say they won’t get comfortable wins like the one against United? Yes, I’m biased.

Although I highly recommend bringing in Jota, I don’t think swapping him for Foden will be maximising your points. Ideally, you’d have both in your squad, and I’d suggest that this combo may be worth bringing in over trying to squeeze in Son (this may come back to haunt me). As for which one I’d prioritise, Jota has the edge for me.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Analysis | Best Transfer Combinations

Bowen (£6.3m) vs Trossard (£6.5m) vs Raphinha (£6.6m)

Raphinha is finally finding his feet as an FPL asset this year, but Bowen and Trossard are snapping at his heels as differentials who are in great form within sides that have surprised. Is it worth holding onto Raphinha, or would these low-owned players be able to provide you with those all-important green arrows?

Bowen vs Trossard vs Raphinha: The Stats

*Bowen is on 960 minutes; Trossard 958 minutes; Raphinha 820 minutes

	Bowen	Trossard	Raphinha
Goals	2	3	5
Fantasy Assists / Assists	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0
npxG per 90	0.31	0.17	0.33
xA per 90	0.22	0.11	0.22
npxG + xA per 90	0.52	0.28	0.54
Shots / Shots on Target	27 / 12	30 / 11	35 / 12
Key Passes	20	18	21
% Goal Involvement	26	36	50
% FPL Goal Involvement	35	36	50

All of these players are definitely showing some impressive numbers, but it’s Raphinha who comes out on top overall, despite having less game time. All three players are among the top ten players for shots and shots on target – only Salah has more shots on target than Bowen and Raphinha – but it is Trossard who seems to be falling a little behind, even though he’s now playing out-of-position, as a false 9.

Bowen’s Heatmaps

Trossard’s Heatmaps

Raphinha’s Heatmaps

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West Ham vs Brighton vs Leeds at a Glance

	West Ham	Brighton	Leeds
Goals	21	12	11
npxG	16.6	10.1	13.6
npxG per 90	1.51	0.92	1.24
Chances Created	121	102	115
Goal Attempts	172	130	157
Shots on Target	56	44	44

It is clear that West Ham are head and shoulders above Brighton and Leeds – they are only really behind Liverpool, City, and Chelsea in their attacking prowess.

• The thing that Bowen is falling short on is his %GI – also, a slight majority of West Ham’s chances have come from the left flank, rather than Bowen’s zone; but this is marginal

• Brighton’s attempts have come from the right flank most, but only by a small margin – Trossard is currently playing a false 9 role, and because he’s out-of-position this definitely gives his potential a huge boost

• The majority of Leeds’ chances have come down the right flank, where Raphinha plays

West Ham	Brighton	Leeds
wol	avl	tot
mci	LEE	bha
BHA	whu	CRY
CHE	sou	BRE
bur	TOT	che
ars	WOL	mci
NOR	mun	ARS
SOU	BRE	liv

All of these fixtures are definitely a mixed bag, and it’s hard to favour one.

Looking at this, it doesn’t look like Raphinha will be a great long-term option when it comes to GW16. However, until then he does have a nice fixture run. Bowen also has a very unpredictable set of games, and if you had him you would maybe consider benching him against the likes of City and Chelsea, but I think their win over Liverpool proves that West Ham’s assets can really deliver regardless of fixtures. Brighton also alternate between favourable and unfavourable fixtures.

Bowen vs Trossard vs Raphinha: The Verdict

I think Trossard is one to keep an eye on now that he’s out-of-position, but I don’t think his and Brighton’s numbers warrant you taking a chance on him just yet. However, if you’re a real fan of the eye test and fancy taking a risk on a differential, he’s a good one to bet on.

If you already have Raphinha, I think he’s a good one to keep. He’s always involved in Leeds’ attacks, and will consistently get a decent amount of points.

I do, however, really like the look of Bowen. He’s still a differential, and if you already have Conor Gallagher or maybe Raphinha, a move to Bowen could really boost your ranking.

Further Read: FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson

Wilson (£7.3m) vs Jiménez (£7.7m)

Callum Wilson is becoming a really popular FPL pick among players, especially since Lukaku, Ronaldo, Kane, and Vardy have been slightly disappointing. But, at a similar price point, it’s definitely worth considering Jiménez too.

Wilson vs Jiménez: The Stats

*Wilson is on 591 minutes; Jiménez is on 901 minutes

	Wilson	Jiménez
Goals	4	2
Fantasy Assists / Assists	0 / 0	1 / 2
npxG per 90	0.33	0.27
xA per 90	0.02	0.15
npxG + xA per 90	0.36	0.41
Shots / Shots on Target	14 /6	23 / 6
Key Passes (per 90)	4 (0.62)	18 (1.80)
% Goal Involvement	67	44
% FPL Goal Involvement	67	56

These two seem to be pretty evenly matched, but it’s unfortunate the data is a little skewed. However, Wilson has had more attacking returns than Jiménez in a much shorter time.

It’s difficult to pick one over the other, especially when both are outside the top 20 players for expected stats. Looking at their respective teams would be helpful to put their stats in perspective.

Wilson’s Heatmaps

Jiménez’s Heatmaps

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Newcastle vs Wolves at a Glance

	Newcastle	Wolves
Goals	11	10
npxG	10.0	13.7
npxG per 90	0.91	1.24
Chances Created	87	93
Goal Attempts	118	125
Shots on Target	30	39

Neither team have gotten the season off to a brilliant start. As we all know, Wolves are under-performing their expected stats, but their numbers still aren’t great. Wolves definitely come out better here, but it still isn’t too convincing.

Newcastle	Wolves
BRE	WHU
ars	nor
NOR	BUR
BUR	LIV
lei	mci
liv	bha
MCI	CHE
MUN	WAT

Both teams will face struggling Burnley and Norwich sides soon, but Wilson’s short-term fixtures are definitely more appealing. In the long term, neither teams have a great run of games. Overall, Wilson’s next opponents have conceded more shots on target, so this may edge us towards him.

Wilson vs Jiménez: The Verdict

Unfortunately, striker options are really sparse right now, and neither of these players offer a great deal of excitement. I can understand opting for Wilson, because Wolves are so frustrating.

Though I don’t have a great amount of faith in Wilson to bag a lot of points in the coming weeks, if you are able to own him for the short-term this may pay off, considering how little options there are up front. For me, I don’t think either of their numbers are too appealing, but if you are going to own Wilson it has to be sooner rather than later.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12:

FPL GW12 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW11
FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Analysis | Best Transfer Combinations
Everything Begins With the Fundamentals | Story on Son-Heung Min
FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12
FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW11 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW11 Sunday Fixtures Review Based On Stats And Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs. All of the blogs are completely free to access and covers everything right from game week preview to captaincy!

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