Gameweek 12 saw a lot of goals a with most managers having a great week with GW average at 57 points thanks to big names like Salah, Cancelo and TAA returning big. But this is that stage of the season to find the new options before the crowd and get ahead on the curve. It is important to spot the differentials nice and early to get an edge. Here are our top differential picks(<10% TSB) and ultra-differential pick(<1% TSB) ahead of FPL GW13 deadline.
Note: The ownership given is at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW13 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 10/11 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW12. Stay tuned for the GW10 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 13 blogs.
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”22″]
The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.
FPL GW13 Differential Picks (<10% TSB):
Sadio Mane vs Southampton(H), TSB: 4.6%
Liverpool run into a great run of fixtures before the AFCON which starts on January 9th- Southampton(H), Everton(A), Wolves(A), Villa(H), Newcastle(H), Tottenham(A), Leeds(H), Leicester(A). They would love to maximize their results during this run before the departure of their stars- Salah and Mane. The home numbers of Mane has been exceptional fetching 47 points from 6 games averaging 7.83 points per game. In fact, Mane has more big chances(6) and more goals(5) at home than Salah(4 big chances & 4 goals) this season. One of the main difficulties in getting in Mane in your squad is the balancing the structure of the squad and budget with most managers already having Salah and Alexander Arnold. But the below numbers has been brilliant which should give him warranty him a shout for a premium player slot.
Stat attack- Sadio Mane
- Most big chances in the league(13)– On level with Mo Salah
- Second most shots(39), Second for shots on Target(16), 2nd highest for shots inside the box(33), 2nd best xG(7.07), 2nd best xGI(10.1) in the league- Only behind Salah in everything.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
Aubameyang vs Newcastle(H), TSB: 4.2%
This has been that kind of season with the no proper premium forward fulfilling the expectations- Kane, Vardy, Ronaldo and Lukaku. Vardy and Kane seems to be the ideal picks for the fixtures, but has not yet matched what they have been expected off. With many FPL managers having enough money in the bank, Aubameyang is definitely a good differential shout ahead of FPL GW13. Aubameyang has a particular liking for Newcastle as a team with 6 goals and 3 assists from just 8 games against them. To add to it, Newcastle have conceded 33 big chances which is the highest in the league.
Key stat(among forwards) at Home:
Since GW4, Aubemeyang has most big chances(5), most shots on target(9), most shots inside the box(15), Best xG(3.70), most goals(4) in the league among forwards.
Stats from Fantasy Football Hub
Bernado Silva vs West Ham United, TSB: 8.9%
Bernado Silva has been the highest scoring Manchester City midfielder in FPL this season with 57 points courtesy 4 goals and 2 assists. With injuries to Torres, De Bruyne and Grealish, Bernado has possibly escaped the Pep Roulette playing 90 minutes in all PL games since GW5. He has also taken up the False 9 at times and has gotten into good goal scoring positions. Also to add, West Ham have conceded 45% of their chances from the left side(Highest in the league) and Bernado Silva should be a tasty differential ahead of FPL GW13.
Key stat(among midfielders):
Since GW8, Bernado Silva has 4 big chances(3rd), xG-2.17(4th), 3 goals(Joint 3rd) fetching 33 points(joint 4th) averaging 6.6 FPL points per game.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Top Transfer Ins and Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
Marcus Alonso vs Manchester United(H), TSB: 7.5%
Pro-Tip: If you already own Cancelo, Reece James and Trent Alexander Arnold in your team, Alonso should be a direct replacement for the injured Chilwell in your team.
Key stat- Marcus Alonso
For the first 6 GWs, Alonso topped the charts among defenders for shots(11), shots on target(4), 3rd for xG(1.06), 2nd for touches in the opposition box(15), 2nd for FPL points(39).
Further Read: FPL GW13 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
Benteke vs Aston Villa(H), TSB: 2.2%
Crystal Palace as a team have evolved this season to play some attractive and attacking football under Viera. They have scored 18 goals(6th best in the league) with an xG of 16.1 from 12 games this season. Beneteke’s upcoming fixtures also look really promising and Benteke at just 6.4 should continue his run and should be among the points.
Palace’s next 4 fixtures(Opponent’s xGC rank from GW7- GW12 mentioned):
- Aston Villa(18th)
- Leeds United(4th)
- Manchester United(20th)
- Everton(19th)
Stat of the day:
Since GW8, Benteke tops the chart among forwards for big chances(7), shots inside the box(16), shots on target(8), Goals(4), 2nd for xG(3.40) and 2nd for FPL points(26).
Stats from Fantasy Football Hub
Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW13
Tariq Lamptey vs Leeds United, TSB: 0.8%
Lamptey is finally back to full fitness with 2 starts from the last 2 games playing 74 minutes and 78 minutes respectively. From these 2 games, he has shown glimpses of his attacking potential managing 3 shots(all inside the box), one big chance, xGI-0.8 and 2 key passes to his name. Brighton have good clean sheet potential facing Leeds, West Ham, Southampton, Spurs, Wolves in the next 5 games. With an ownership of just 0.8%, Lamptey is a good differential choice and also one of the top options for defenders under 4.5 in the longer run.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 13:
FPL GW13 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
FPL GW13 Top Transfer Ins and Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
Tactical Analysis: Man Utd under Michael Carrick
FPL GW12 Sunday Fixtures Stats and Eye Test Based Review
FPL GW12 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 13 blogs.
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Srinivasan S
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