FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson

Callum Wilson has always been an amazing asset to own in FPL. In his best season, he scored 14 goals and had 12 FPL assists in just 30 appearances. Even this season, so far, he has scored 4 in 7. Now, with the appointment of Eddie Howe by Newcastle, his prospects look even more lucrative, as he managed three of the current Newcastle Players during his time at Bournemouth. In this blog, I’ll go through reasons why Wilson could be a great FPL differential to own, at just 2.2%.

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Callum Wilson FPL Analysis

What can we expect from Eddie Howe?

The former Bournemouth manager took the Cherries from League 2 to Premier League and helped them stay in the top flight for 5 seasons. Howe likes to play an exciting and attacking game, and constant pressing, which requires a high work rate from players with and without the ball. The season Bournemouth were relegated, they were 3rd when ranked on the basis of pressing. He is expected to bring optimism in their style of play and more energy off the ball.

With so much pressing comes weak defence. They conceded 65 goals that season. Newcastle has already conceded 24 goals in 11 league games, so defence is certainly not going to be a strong point of the Newcastle team under Howe. However, Howe cannot ignore their defensive weaknesses and will have to address that.

The other promising factor is that three of the current Newcastle players – Wilson, Fraser, and Ritchie, have played together under Howe in Bournemouth. Callum Wilson has done well so far in his Newcastle career and is expected to continue the same.

Callum Wilson(7.3m) – 2021/22 Stats:

xG/90	Shots/90	SiB/90	SoT/90	Big Chances/90	xA/90
0.39	2.28	1.83	0.91	0.76	0.08

From a total xG of 2.56 this season, he has scored 4 goals in just 7 games. He missed 4 games due to injury but has scored two after returning. With the attacking options available in the Newcastle team and the appointment of an attacking manager, he should be able to keep up these numbers, or even better these. Newcastle also have a good run of fixtures to justify jumping on Wilson this Gameweek only. They face BRE, NOR and BUR at home, in next five of their fixtures.

Newcastle’s Fixture Run:

GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16
BRE	ars	NOR	BUR	lei

These set of fixture provide enough incentive to jump on Wilson and a new manager bounce could also help.

Callum Wilson – Heat Map

Now let’s compare how Wilson performed under Eddie Howe and how he performed under Steve Bruce

Wilson under Howe(2018/19 season) Vs Wilson under Bruce(2020/21 season)

In both the seasons, Wilson’s performance was stellar. He scored 14 goals and 12 goals respectively. But let’s take a look at some detailed stats to analyse his performance under Eddie Howe and under Steve Bruce.

	Under Eddie Howe (2018/19)	Under Steve Bruce (2020/21)
Goals + Assists	26	18
xG/90	0.53	0.48
NPxG/90	0.48	0.35
xA/90	0.30	0.16
Shots/90	2.31	2.12
Big Chances/90	1.03	0.91

Wilson had 8 more Goals + Assists in his 2018/19 season as compared to the 2020/21 season. Also, he had a higher xG/90 and NPxG/90 over the course of 18/19 season. He also took more volume of shots and got more Big Chances/90 in that season. He had an astonishing season in 2018/19, however under Bruce also, he didn’t fail to come good. It is evident that Wilson’s underlying numbers were better in the 2018/19 season, as Howe prefers a more attacking approach in juxtapose to Steve Bruce’s approach. If Eddie Howe is able to replicate his methods, Wilson could hit the grounds running soon.

Callum Wilson against small teams:

Against weaker defences, Callum Wilson is a different beast. In the 2018/19 season, out of a total of 14 goals, he scored 12 against weaker defences. Against those teams (i.e – NOR, WAT, WHU, SOU etc), he had an xG/i90 of 0.60, and a total of 139 FPL points(including Bonus) in that season. Weaker Defences mean more space for him to run behind the defences, and more freedom to take better shots. Not to mention that he is also a clinical striker, and does not waste many chances. He faces three such defences in his next five, making him an amazing prospect. Also, he has a stellar record against West Ham, against whom, he has scored 9 in 11 games; against Burnley, he has scored 3 in 9 games, and against Brighton, 4 in 9 matches.

Wilson Vs Other Strikers:

In this table, stats of the last 4 Gameweeks of Wilson are compared to Antonio, Jimenez, Iheanacho, and Watkins.

	Wilson(7.3m)	Antonio(8.2m)	Jimenez(7.7m)	Iheanacho(7.0m)	Watkins(7.3m)
Total Minutes	347	360	271	212	360
Goals/90	0.52	0.25	0.33	0.00	0.25
Big Chances/90	0.52	0.50	0.66	0.00	0.50
xG/90	0.25	0.29	0.39	0.15	0.30
Shots/90	1.30	2.25	1.99	2.12	2.25

Jimenez has slightly better stats as he missed one game in the last four. However, in this bracket, based on form and fixtures, Wilson is the stand-out option as Antonio has a somewhat difficult run of fixtures. Wilson scored 2 goals over this period, whereas Antonio, Jimenez, and Watkins scored one. Wilson has the highest Big Chances/90 after Jimenez at 0.52. Therefore considering the other options in the forward position, Wilson seems like a good punt to own for a few weeks.

Conclusion:

Considering all the points mentioned, Wilson appears to be a perfectly calculated punt to go for over the next few weeks. His ownership is also a mere 2.2%, therefore jumping on him early could also help catch a few price rises, if he performs well. All the aspects, fixtures, form, and a new manager bounce, also the new manager being Eddie Howe coincides, making Wilson a too good of a differential to get into our teams. Will you be jumping on Wilson this Week?

Thanks for reading this blog and good luck for the season ahead!

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12:

FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12
FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW11 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW11 Sunday Fixtures Review Based On Stats And Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs. All of the blogs are completely free to access and covers everything right from game week preview to captaincy!

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