A lot of injuries, some tough fixtures in FPL GW9 means managers are looking for some hidden gems to replace some of their players and in this blog, we do the usual job of unearthing potential differentials who could haul big in FPL GW9 and beyond.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 9 blogs.
Note: All player ownership is from the time of writing. Subject to change closer to deadline.
FPL GW9 Differential Picks
Kai Havertz(8.1) vs Norwich City(H), TSB: 4.1%
With both Lukaku(Ankle Twist) and Werner(Hamstring) suffering injuries in the Champions League game against Malmo, our eyes switch to the out of position forward in Havertz. Havertz should be playing the False 9/ Striker role in the absence of Lukaku and Werner. He also showed signs of what he can produce as a striker- Scored after coming on as a substitute in the Champions League game. He did have a good end to the season last year- 3 goals, 1 assist and 9 big chances from his last 5 games in the league. If you are planning in for a wildcard around GW12, Havertz could be a massive differential with those tempting fixtures ahead of FPL GW9 at just 4.1% TSB.
Chelsea and Havertz’s next three opponents defensive numbers:
- GW9- Norwich City- 21 big chances conceded(2nd highest), 84 shots inside the box conceded(3rd most), xGC-15.0(2nd worst).
- GW10- Newcastle United- 22 big chances conceded(1st), xGC- 16.1(Worst in the league), 19 goals conceded(Highest in the league).
- GW11- Burnley- 87 shots inside the box conceded(worst in the league), Only one clean sheet so far from 9 games.
Further Read: FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements
Mbeumo(5.6) vs Leicester(A), TSB: 3.4%
Just 2 attacking returns from 8 games, but why does Mbeumo feature here? Perhaps the numbers would surely tell a different story as he has hit the frame of the goal a record 6 times in 8 games. Mbeumo has 13 shots inside box, 5 big chances and the returns should be surely coming soon. Brentford have a fixture swing from GW9- Leicester(H), Burnley(A), Norwich(H), Newcastle(A) in the next 4 games. To add to it, their opponents in FPL GW9 Leicester City have conceded 86 shots inside the box(2nd most) and Mbeumo leading the attack should enjoy this!
Stat attack:
- Leicester have conceded the most chances from the left zone(41) and Mbeumo in this form should love it.
- Mbeumo has 5 big chances this season which is the joint third among midfielders- Only behind the Liverpool trio of Salah, Mane and Jota.
- Value for Money– Mbeumo has 0.89 big chances/million(1st among mids), 0.42 xG/million(4th among mids), 3.40 shots/million(4th among mids).
Further Read: Form & Fixtures Analysis Ahead of FPL GW9 | Team and Players to Target
Kevin De Bruyne(£11.9) vs BrightonA), TSB: 3.4%
The Belgian wizard is slowly but surely coming back to FPL prominence with back-to-back goals in two games making him the third-highest scoring mid over the last three games just behind Salah/Son. It’s not just the two goals that caught our eyes but the positioning that KDB had inside the box which was too hard to ignore.
Over the last three games which he has started KDB has registered 10 shots on goal with seven of them from inside the box. KDB is also creating some good chances with 26 passes into the penalty area (3rd best amongst mids) creating two big chances with an xA of 1.23(Bettered only by Salah in the last three games.
Man City are facing a much improved Brighton side who are quite good defensively. But city historically play well against Brighton and have scored 16 goals vs Brighton in their last five games with KDB scoring twice.
KDB was subbed off early as well in the mid-week champions league win over Club Brugge. So he’s more likely to start against Brighton.
Further Read: Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW9 ~ Kane vs Lukaku vs Vardy, James vs Chilwell, Hwang vs Toney vs Armstrong
Ben Chilwell (£5.7) vs Norwich(H), TSB: 6.9%
Chilwell is the man of the hour having been on fire since regaining his place from Marcos Alonso. He’s scored in each of the two games he has started so far this season and has registered 23 points in the last two gameweeks with king Mo the only player to outscore the Chelsea fullback. He’s up against a dead and down Norwich side who are winless so far in the PL. The canaries have also conceded the second-most big chances, second-worst xGC in the league.
One more thing that caught our eye is that Norwich have conceded 44% of their chances through the right flank which is the side of the pitch Chilwell operates making it an exciting matchup. Chilwell also has superior numbers since Tuchel took over as manager of Chelsea compared to James. The next games for Chilwell include Norwich, Newcastle United, and Burnley comfortably the three worst defences in the league. At an ownership of just 6% he’s too hard to ignore.
Further Read: Form & Fixtures Analysis Ahead of FPL GW9 | Team and Players to Target
Raul Jimenez(£7.6) vs Leeds(A), TSB: 7.6%
Raul was surprisingly missing from the starting 11 last week against Villa which Wolves won 3-2 after being two goals down. The benching was down to Jimenez playing for Mexico and taking a long flight back. After a week’s break the Mexican striker will be fresh and eager to continue where he left before the international break. Hee chan didn’t have a great game either missing the services of his strike partner.
Jimenez so far has creared 19 chances which is the highest for all forwards with three big chances with an xA of 2.30 which are seriously good numbers. Leeds have not been the same team from last season and Wolves will look to capitalize this and continue their run. Now that Lukaku is out makes Jimenez an exciting replacement as well.
Further Read: Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW9 ~ Kane vs Lukaku vs Vardy, James vs Chilwell, Hwang vs Toney vs Armstrong
Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW9:
Callum Wilson(7.3) vs Crystal Palace(A), TSB: 1%
Newcastle’s new owners have expectedly taken the limelight in the past weeks. But, a certain Callum Wilson has also come back from injury and does what he does so often- Score a goal and fetched 2 bonus points. From the 4 games he has played this season, he has 8 shots inside the box, 4 big chances, xG-2.06, 3 goals to fetch 24 points averaging 6 points per game. While it looks to be a shortage of mid-priced strikers due to injuries to Bamford and Calvert Lewin, Wilson could offer great differential value ahead of FPL GW9 and even in the longer run at just 1% TSB.
Wilson in numbers:
- Callum Wilson has an xG/90 of 0.58- Only Ronaldo(0.70) and Antonio(0.77) has better xG/90 among forwards who have played at least 300 minutes
- Best Expected Goal Involvement(69%) among forwards in the league.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 9:
Players in Focus Based on Eye Test Ahead of FPL Gameweek 9
Form & Fixtures Analysis Ahead of FPL GW9 | Team and Players to Target
FPL GW9 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW9 ~ Kane vs Lukaku vs Vardy, James vs Chilwell, Hwang vs Toney vs Armstrong
FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements
FPL GW8 Fixture Wise Stats And Eye Test-Based Review
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 9 blogs.
Thanks for reading the ‘FPL GW9 Differntial Picks‘ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 40000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 9 blogs.
Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW9 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 7/8 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW8 with a double-digit haul. Stay tuned for the GW9 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 9 blogs.
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”18″]
The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 9?
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