Why Big at The Back a Good Wildcard Strategy Ahead of FPL GW7

FPL GW7 has come and it is time for many who earmarked it as possible Wildcard to start thinking about it. With the sudden arrival of CR7, the game has tilted heavily towards the forwards. CR7 is already at ownership of around 49% despite his hefty price tag as a forward. Of course, owning one of the best players in the world in a season where he has come back to his home again is a charm hard to resist. Add to it, the presence of Lukaku at perhaps strongest contenders of the title this season & an evergreen Mo Salah, ‘threemium’ has its rightful share of fans already on social media. To be honest, it is very difficult to go against three players all of whom look set to prove their worth with a possibly 20+ goal season but today, am going to try to do exactly that for managers who are looking to play their WC soon ( & also who don’t like myself !!) 

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW7 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a 100% record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW6 with a goal. Stay tuned for the GW7 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 7 blogs.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Before we begin to look into the reasons why I am suggesting a different approach, let me start by taking a quick recap of GW 1-6 & how things stand:-

Below is a look of Top 20 FPL players sorted by points so far this FPL Season

A quick look at the points & King Salah leads the charge having crossed the first 50 points with ease followed by surprise candidate, Antonio & City fullback Cancelo. Looking at position wise classification: –

Fwd- 4 (Avg position-8^th)

Mid- 8 (Avg position-10^th)

Def- 6 (Avg position- 10^th)

Gk- 2  (Avg position- 17^th)

In FPL midfielders generally do rule the roost and we see it with no. of options in the top 20 for them (8), however, the avg position shows while they are in the top 20, they are not necessarily the absolute best options. Surprisingly, the forwards with their small pool seem to be the quality options. The no. of defenders while high also have a similar quality to that of midfielders while both premium GKs are showing why they might not be the best substitute to a similarly priced defender.

Now, focusing a bit on value picks that we can find, I am sorting the points on per Million basis: –

Looking at position wise classification: –

Fwd- 1(Avg position-13^th)

Mid- 6 (Avg position-10^th)

Def- 9 (Avg position- 8^th)

Gk- 4 (Avg position- 17^th)

Looking at value picks (per Million basis), defenders have come out as serious options with 9 choices coming in top 20 and with the best avg position of 8^th. As you look to balance your team with a WC, I guess defense does make case for an area to invest. 

Further Read: Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW7 ~ Dias vs Cancelo, Alonso vs Rudiger

Going Big at the back – why it is worth the risk?

A couple of observations, I want to add from the above 2 tables: –

1. When we look at overall points, 5 out of 6 defenders topping the charts are actually premium defenders. 
2. When we look at per m value players, we find that despite the price, 4 of the defenders in top 10 are premium defenders (5.5m and above) & 5/9 overall are priced 5m & above.

This tells me there is value even in the premium defensive picks.

Looking at the top 6 defenders in FPL points-wise- we have 2 from City ( Cancelo & Dias), 2 from Chelsea ( Rudiger & Alonso), and demi-god Trent along with surprise Brentford defender Pinnock. If we look at the recent analysis by FPL Blackbox courtest Mark & AZ, we can see that both City & Chelsea have had tough fixtures so far. City had a ticker rank of 10 whereas Chelsea had a ticker rank of 18 in the first 6 GWs. Despite this, we have 4 Premium defenders who have now pushed their way into the Top 20 points alongside Trent who had much favorable fixtures.

Since it seems the popular Wildcard choice now being GW 8, just after International Break, let us have a look at the overall fixtures ticker for the next 6 weeks ( GW 8-13):-

Man City & Chelsea both seem to be in Top 4 in the fixture ticker which really helps in going for the premium 4 defenders from both the teams with a possibility of 5/6 Clean Sheets for both the clubs. To help their cause, Rudiger & Alonso are still around 5.5-5.7m bracket and Dias & Cancelo are still around 6-6.2m bracket who are relatively less expensive compared to Liverpool defensive trio of Trent, Robbo & VVD.

A shout out for Christensen who seems to have played all but 1 game and is still priced closer to 5m and hence, does provide you a cheaper route to Chelsea defence in order to have a balanced back 4. To add to this, we have options for both Brentford & Arsenal who provide you cheap defensive assets. A shout out can be done for Tomiyasu who at 4.5m is a good RB who will give you both offensive and defensive interventions leading to a possible additional bonus points as well, White is already popular at 4.4m while Tierney provides that stellar option at 4.9m but with potential of a huge upside as he still remains Arsenal’s most creative outlet. 

Further Read: Form and Fixtures Analysis Ahead OF FPL GW 7 | Best FPL Assets to Own

Possible big at the back FPL GW7 Wildcard Team

Looking at a possible WC draft basis the fixtures & popular FPL assets, this for me below can be strong differential team where you have a solid back 4-5 for most fixtures for next 6 GWs (with around 1m+ in the bank)

Here we have FWD-Lukaku, Antonio & Jesus (as well considering his consistency of starts in PL)

Midfileders- Salah, Benny, Sarr ( ESR & Brownhill your bench options)

Defenders- Double Chelsea- Rudi & Christensen/Alonso, Cancelo & Dias and 1 Arsenal/Brentford defender

Goal keepers- Have money in the bank to ideally get someone like Raya or Ramsdale.

Expected Formation- 4-3-3,5-2-3 ( unusual differential from a structural point of view)

In comparison, we are looking at current popular FPL assets in a threemium structure ( with almost 0m ITB) :-

Here we have FWD-Lukaku, Antonio & CR7

Midfielders- Salah, Benny, Sarr ( ESR/Gallagher & Brownhill your bench options)

Defenders- Double Chelsea- Rudi & Cancelo are your primary defenders with Jansson/Pinnock forming the 3 at back with solid options like Duffy and Livramento on the bench.

Goal keepers- Have money in the bank to ideally get someone like Raya or Ramsdale.

Expected Formation- 3-4-3, 4-3-3

One important point that does make case against Threemium draft is Top Captaincy choices for the coming weeks can be pretty much limited between Lukaku & Salah over meaning you are missing out on utilizing the potential of your third premium asset despite having him on team. Below we have Captaincy matrix for next 4 weeks thanks to FPL Blackbox & GW 8-10 are going to be a swing between Rom & Salah and Ronaldo might not be most popular choice. 

Over the last couple of seasons, we have seen Liverpool (19/20) & City ( 20/21) provide strong defensive assets to FPL managers and made popular concept of defensive premiums. This season, we already have unreal consistency of both City & Chelsea defense in front of us despite their tougher fixtures. This does make one think as GW 8 reckons, is it the time to go Big at the Back ?

My best wishes to FPL managers who take this risk ahead.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 7:

Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW7 ~ Dias vs Cancelo, Alonso vs Rudiger, Saka vs Sarr
Form and Fixtures Analysis Ahead OF FPL GW 7 | Best FPL Assets to Own
FPL GW7 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW6
Making a For and Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums
Bukayo Saka The Explosive FPL Differential Ahead Of GW7 Fixture Swing

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 7 blogs.

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