Form and Fixtures Analysis Ahead OF FPL GW7

In this article, @EnthusiastFpl deep dives into form and fixtures ahead of FPL GW7 with the help of some scatter charts and try to solve our transfer dilemmas. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW7 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by @AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a 100% record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW6 with a goal. Stay tuned for the GW7 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 7 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”16″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Instead of the widely used Non Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) + Expected Assists (xA), we are gonna look at Non Penalty Expected Attacking Points (np xAtt Pts) here.

np xAtt Pts for defenders = npxG*6 + xA*3

np xAtt Pts for midfielders = npxG*5 + xA*3

np xAtt Pts for forwards = npxG*4 + xA*3

Why, though?

It’s simply because goals are rewarded more than assists in FPL. Say there are 2 players posting similar npxG+xA, but the one with the greater goal threat would give us more points than the one who is primarily a provider. So, np xAtt Pts is potentially a better tool than npxG+xA.

A major caveat with using a small sample size of data (GW 1-6) is the greater impact of the strength of opponents. In an effort to contextualize the data, I’ve introduced color-coding to all the graphs with the colors of the plots representing the difficulty of fixtures in GW 1-6.

Team Performance between FPL GW1-6

Before diving into player data, let’s see how the teams have fared so far with the help of a scatter chart with Expected Goals (xG) per game plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) per game on the y-axis. The white dotted lines represent the league average.

Team performance between FPL GW1 to 6 ahead of FPL GW7

Further Read: Making a For and Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums

FPL Defenders Analysis

We have seen how good (or bad) the defensive numbers are for all teams from the above graph. What about the potential for attacking returns? Are the fixtures good enough to capitalise on? For that, let’s look at another scatter chart with fixture difficulty ranking for the next 5 GWs plotted on the x-axis and np xAtt Pts per 90 on the y-axis of defenders who have played a minimum of 270 mins over the last 6 GWs.

Takeaways and best FPL defenders to target going into FPL GW7

Trent (£7.6) has been posting some insane numbers. If he is out for three weeks as rumoured and you get rid, make sure that you have a plan or money in the bank to bring him back once fit. Hands down the best asset in the game.
Manchester City are in a league of their own for defensive numbers and have good fixtures after Liverpool away in GW 7. Though Laporte (£5.5) offers great threat from setpieces, minutes could soon be a worry with Stones (£5.3) now back from injury. Cancelo (£6.1) is the high upside pick. Worried about potential 1 pointers? Well, he was subbed on only once in the premier league last season. Dias (£6.1) offers a safer route, being the most nailed player in that backline, but with limited attacking threat. Both Cancelo & Dias are good for bonus points. Though Walker (£5.5) is cheaper, I would avoid him since he offers the worst of both Dias & Cancelo – not as nailed as Dias and negligible attacking threat as compared to Cancelo.

Though Chelsea’s defensive numbers don’t look the best, it’s worth noting that they have had some tough fixtures so far. Chelsea have kept a premier league high 15 clean sheets in 25 games since Tuchel took charge. The fixtures are there for the taking. Alonso (£5.9) is miles ahead in terms of attacking potential but minutes could be a worry once Chilwell (£5.6) is eased into the team. Rudiger (£5.7) offers a safer route, albeit with negligible attacking threat. As for bonus points, Azpilicueta (£6.0) is your best bet, but with limited potential for attacking returns. Christensen (£5.0) represents value at that price and I expect him to start 3 out of 4 games.
If I were to pick two defenders from City and Chelsea, I would go with Cancelo and Rudiger. If three, Cancelo, Dias and Rudiger would be my picks. Though the fixtures are better for Chelsea, City defenders seem much more nailed at the moment. That said, Trent to Alonso could potentially be that perfect transfer this week for GW 8 wildcarders, provided that you have a decent first sub to come on if he is benched.
If Trent is out for three weeks as the rumours suggest, I would consider doubling up on both City and Chelsea defenses (Cancelo, Dias, Rudiger and Alonso) on a wildcard.
White (£4.4) offers great value at that price. Though Arsenal doesn’t look good on the team performance chart, they have improved once the key players returned, conceding just 2 big chances in the last 3 GWs. It is also worth noting that they had a good defence last season, with only City and Chelsea conceding fewer goals. Tierney (£4.9) is a good option as well with a decent attacking threat.
Semedo (£4.9) is still worth looking at given his great underlying numbers, though he is yet to deliver on them.
It may not be a bad idea to hold Shaw (£5.5), if fit, for this GW as he faces an injury-hit Everton. I would look to sell afterwards since the injury to Maguire (£5.4) would likely dent his clean sheet prospects. Also, the fixtures are about to turn worse.
Livramento (£4.2) has posted decent numbers despite the fixtures being tough and has great fixtures from GW 8. That’s your cheap defender spot sorted on the wildcard.

Further Read: FPL GW7 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW6

FPL Midfielders Analysis

Let’s look at a scatter chart with fixture difficulty ranking for the next 5 GWs plotted on the x-axis and np xAtt Pts per 90 on the y-axis of midfielders who have played a minimum of 270 mins over the last 6 GWs.

Takeaways and best FPL midfielders to target going into FPL GW7

The Liverpool boys are up there. Jota (£7.7) is neck to neck with Salah (£12.6) and Mane (£11.9) for per 90 stats but I would look to sell now that Firmino (£8.8) is back. If at all you thought about going without Salah on your wildcard considering the fixtures, I would strongly advise against it given his form and Liverpool’s attacking form.
Though Manchester City don’t rank that high on fixture difficulty, they have three great fixtures (BUR bha CRY) after Liverpool away in GW 7. Grealish (£8.0) would be my pick. He has started all games so far and posted some good numbers. Also, his potential for attacking returns seems to be improving week on week. As for Torres (£7.0), he has been an unused sub in each of City’s last 3 games in the premier league and UCL. I would look to sell.
Raphinha (£6.5), if fit, is the best budget midfielder in my opinion. He has the form and the fixtures to capitalise on.
Saka (£6.2) and Smith-Rowe (£5.3) offer so much value and have the fixtures to take advantage of.
Gallagher (£5.7) has posted some insane numbers. He used to be on setpieces, but Milivojevic (£5.4) took them against Brighton. Even if Milivojevic starts regularly and continues to take them, Gallagher is still a great option on a wildcard given only the Liverpool trio of Salah, Mane and Jota have a better xG among midfielders than him so far.
Mbeumo (£5.5) has been posting some great numbers and offers so much value at that price.
Sarr (£6.3) could be a good one GW punt for GW 8 wildcarders as he plays Leeds away this week. Others could look elsewhere. The fixtures turn for the worse from GW 8. That ship has sailed in my opinion.
Greenwood (£7.7) could do well against an injury-hit Everton, but I would look to sell afterwards now that Rashford (£9.4) is expected to be back after the international break. Also, the fixtures are about to turn worse.
Though I would expect Traore (£6.0) to be back in the team after that horror show from Podence (£5.5), I no longer have the faith in him to deliver on his good underlying numbers. That said, it is not a bad idea to keep him this GW when he faces Newcastle at home.
Though Elyounoussi (£5.5) has posted some great numbers, he could lose his place once Stuart Armstrong (£5.8) is back from injury.
Though West Ham rank pretty low on fixture difficulty, the next four (BRE eve TOT avl) looks scorable fixtures to me. So, I would be happy to hold Benrahma (£6.6) considering the kind of form West Ham have been in. That said, I wouldn’t get him on a wildcard considering that the fixtures are much worse afterwards.
As for the Everton trio of Gray (£5.8), Doucoure (£5.6) and Townsend (£5.5), there are better options in that price range in my opinion. Though the fixtures don’t look bad, the best ones have passed. It is a “don’t buy, don’t sell” in my opinion.
I would avoid Mount (£7.4) and Havertz (£8.2) given the rotation and their lack of form early season.
Douglas Luiz (£4.5) could be your cheap midfielder on the wildcard. He has been posting some decent numbers and is on setpieces.

Further Read: Bukayo Saka The Explosive FPL Differential Ahead Of GW7 Fixture Swing

FPL Forwards Analysis

Let’s look at a scatter chart with fixture difficulty ranking for the next 5 GWs plotted on the x-axis and np xAtt Pts per 90 on the y-axis of forwards who have played a minimum of 270 mins over the last 6 GWs.

Takeaways and best FPL Forwards to target going into FPL GW7 and what to do with Rom and CR7?

Ronaldo (£12.7) out, Lukaku (£11.7) in?

Ronaldo is in a league of his own for attacking numbers (smaller sample size though) and has EVE and lei up next. Though Everton’s defensive numbers are good, they have had the easiest fixtures of all teams so far and have injuries to deal with. Leicester’s defensive numbers don’t look good, though it could improve with Evans now back from injury. So, holding Ronaldo for the next two GWs and selling for Lukaku in GW 9 may not be a bad idea if you have other fires to put out. That said, I would make the switch on a free transfer since I think Lukaku’s fixtures are better in the next two GWs (SOU bre) given how Jimenez bullied that Southampton defense and how Brentford had a go at Liverpool, leaving space behind.

Both Ronaldo and Lukaku alongside Salah on the wildcard?

First of all, I don’t think Ronaldo is the prime candidate for captaincy in any of the next 5 GWs. Compromising the rest of the squad to accommodate a non-captainable asset is a little too much in my opinion. Ronaldo could still score in those fixtures, but maybe not enough to compensate for the compromises we have to make. The emergence of budget enablers has made the three premium strategy a little more viable than it seemed a couple of weeks ago, but maybe later when the fixtures are there for the taking and we have enough team value to accommodate three of them without making much compromises elsewhere.

Antonio (£8.0) is joint top with Salah for big chance involvements with 11 so far. If at all you are worried about picking him on a wildcard looking at the fixtures, the next four (BRE eve TOT avl) look very much scorable to me. I would be happy to hold him even beyond that considering the kind of form he is in.
Jimenez (£7.5) has posted some good numbers and is worth looking at given Wolves’ kind run of fixtures until GW 14.
Toney (£6.3), Adam Armstrong (£6.0) and Saint-Maximin (£6.8) are all good budget options to be considered on a wildcard. Toney would be my pick considering Brentford’s better form as compared to Southampton and Newcastle, his talismanic nature and him being on penalties.
Vardy (£10.4) is someone who keeps on posting great numbers and we keep on ignoring given the awkward price point he is at.

Best FPL GW7 Wildcard Draft

If I were to wildcard this GW, this is something I would have gone with.

Thanks for reading. Good luck for GW 7. May the arrows be green. Find me on Twitter @EnthusiastFpl

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 7:

FPL GW7 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW6
Making a For and Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums
Bukayo Saka The Explosive FPL Differential Ahead Of GW7 Fixture Swing

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 7 blogs.

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