First of all, I would like to thank you for the love you have shown to this series so far, Making the Case has been an interesting way even for me to think about the FPL Assets we have at our hands at the beginning of the season.
In the first two parts of the series, we have made a strong case for Cavani as an FPL asset. Don’t forget to check it out and also Making the Case to be an FPL Asset This Season ~ Diogo Jota
It was always going to be easier to write an article about the likes of Salah, Bruno, Trent or Shaw perhaps. But to make a case for someone, I feel the pre-requisite is they are not exactly in people’s minds ( TSB<15%) and they should have the potential to give satisfactory returns to take their place firmly on your team. One segment I have targeted across positions in this series has been the sub-premium brand.
This is because I think they have the potential this season to encapsulate many of the premium assets as well in respective categories, at the same time, the huge variety of attractive assets makes it much more difficult to predict who can be your best choice at the start of the season. To make this choice, we have been looking at various custom metrics thanks to @FantasyFootballHub & Fixtures to finally zone in on one player to make the case for.
This week, we are looking at sub-premium defenders (Priced at 5.0). The reason i am looking at this price segment is we know assets like Trent (7.5) & Shaw/Digne (5.5) have more or less settled in your respective teams. The third defensive asset in my mind is someone who comes in at 5.0 and not 4.5 considering the huge upside & scope for value that comes alongside it.
Hence, this week am looking to make a case for a set and forget defender at 5.0 for the first 19 GWs- Kieran Tierney. I would understand the initial skepticism that would come across from most FPL managers towards Arsenal assets. Even as a self-confessed Arsenal fan, I am used to avoiding most Arsenal assets considering their price & potential of returns.
However, looking at the consistent underperformances, FPL has started devaluing Arsenal players as FPL Assets. This meant, last year suddenly out of nowhere, cheap Arsenal Assets provided value options at certain segments of the season. Can they do it again, is a question we all are left asking?
To add, Arsenal & Clean Sheets have still not been married to each other as a concept & then, we have an injury-prone player in form of Tierney who after 2 seasons at the club still has not amassed 30 starts in either seasons. So, how do we trust Tierney as a set & forget option? We will take a look at my reasons in our latest offering of Making The Case & I hope at the end of this article, you will be as convinced as I am.
Arsenal Team structure & Stats
Arsenal moved to a 4-2-3-1 towards the middle of last season, something that helped Arsenal both solidify their defense, at the same time, create more fluid attacking avenues. Kieran Tierney was used as an attacking Left Back with a license to go all out but of course, his relentless running meant he came back as well to help defense and then went further back again. In absence of any backup, it did result in a few injuries last season as well. However, Arsenal were clear to avoid it this year with Nuno Tavares being the first summer transfer signing. With No Europa, there is already considerably less pressure expected for Arsenal assets including Tierney.
Tierney Heat Map GW 1-19 (Above) Tierney Heat Map GW 20-38 (Below)
As we look at the Heat Map, a clear distinction can be seen in the amount of time, Tierney has spent in the opposition half in GW 20-38 once Arsenal moved to 4 at the back. Arsenal spent a good amount of time in the opposition half with most of their attacks coming from the left side as Arsenal were the 5th side with successful Final 3rd passes in the opposition half (4th in %). Arsenal also had nearly 40% of the chances created from the left side from where Tierney was involved showcasing that Tierney’s heat map in opposition half resulted in a strong % of chances as well.
Defensively, Arsenal have always been suspect before Arteta took over reigns & while he has still been trying to create a winning formula upfront, at the back, his positional structures have resulted in huge gains to yesteryears. Last year between GW 20-38, Arsenal were:-
- 6th lowest Shots conceded on Target (slightly behind United)
- Joint 4th with Man City for Least shots conceded from Set Pieces
- 5th lowest in Big Chances Conceded
- 5th lowest Expected Goals Conceded
- 4th Highest Expected Clean sheets
- 4th Lowest goals Conceded (Joint with Leeds)
I hope this has added a bit more certainty about Arsenal as a defense than it would have been before you started reading this article.
Competitors for Tierney in FPL
Looking at 5.0 defensive options, I will take the top 5 owned defenders currently in FPL all of whom are owned at the lower end. I have looked at stats for last season GW 20-38 with all rounded metrics covering Defensive, Creative & Goal Involvement to give us the best possible understanding of the choices we have.
Customized Defensive Stats ( Stats/Start)
Defensive- Despite being lowly owned, Dunk showed tremendous stats in 2nd half of the season not only in xStats but also in Goals conceded. Tierney was second-best choice overall in this category followed perhaps by Coufal.
Creativity- As expected, it was a fight among the fullbacks with Coufal coming ahead while Targett & Tierney a close 2nd and 3rd.
Goal Involvement- Tierney for me comes out on top here especially with his highest touches inside the box. Coufal comes second for me, Targett coming third.
Overall, I think Coufal & Tierney shone as two players who have overall solid nos. among this set of defenders. Dunk comes a slightly distant third but as you can expect from a CB, he is not a creator but remains a very solid threat especially on set pieces. So, why I think finally we have been able to narrow it down purely to Coufal & Tierney both for me are strong value choices and a potential to end the season much closer to 6 than to 5 while having the potential for 150+ points season if they stay fit.
Check out our: Best Premium Defenders(6.0 Mil+) To Target For The 2021/22 FPL Season and Best Mid-Priced Defenders(5 to 5.5 Mil) To Target For The 2021/2022 FPL Season, FPL Budget Defenders (£4.5) Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Seasonin case you haven’t already. Here is a link to all our FPL Defenders and FPL position-wise player analysis blogs.
Upcoming Fixtures for Tierney and Arsenal in FPL
We are using the FFH fixtures tool to look at Top 6 defensive teams with a view on Predicted Results/ Clean Sheets. I will look at this at various intervals to give you a deeper view of the first 19 GWs:-
As you can see, looking at predicted results by the FFH tool, we can see apart from traditionally popular sides, Arsenal seems joint with United for the most part for most clean sheets. For reference, West Ham side stays on or outside top 10 in all of these plots on account of their defensive metrics at the end of last season. This effectively makes the case for Coufal over Tierney as a long-term move much weaker as CS potential is much lower.
Looking back at the Creativity, goal involvement metrics, heat map & long-term solid fixtures for Kieran Tierney at 5.0. I think we have now made a very logical and strong reason for Making the Case for Kieran Tierney to be one of your first choices for that sub-premium defenders’ slot. With the curtain-raiser for PL 21 coming closer, all eyes are on the last article of this series. See you soon people!!
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of the 2021/22 Season:
Thanks for reading the making the case to be an FPL asset, Keiran Tierney blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 20000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our 2021/22 FPL pre-season blogs.
Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Team Structure Guide, FPL Goalkeepers, FPL Budget Strikers, FPL Midfielders, FPL position-wise player analysis, FPL Individual player comparison and analysis, FPL Strikers, FPL Defenders, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, FPL Team Analysis, FPL Eye Test and FPL Player Analysis.
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Sankalp Nanda
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