FPL GW3 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 3 Deadline

The 2021/22 season so far has been a very prosperous one for those who went with the crowd. Indeed the popular picks pre-season are largely doing a good job. However, the players that give managers the competitive edge and the ones with low ownership. It is imperative to have one or two of such assets who are going to give you points. In this blog, we look at the best differentials or punts as people in the FPL community like to call it, ahead of the FPL GW3 deadline. 

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FPL GW3 Differential Picks(<=10% TSB)

Riyad Mahrez vs Arsenal(H), TSB:7.3%

Riyad Mahrez is one of those players in FPL who is hard to predict. The same applies to most Manchester City players in all honesty, because of Pep Roulette. The Manchester City manager left out Sterling, KDB, and Mahrez last week against Norwich, where the champions ran out 5-0 winners. The Algerian came off the bench and scored a goal to put the icing on the cake. 

So with all the uncertainty why should you pick or hold Mahrez? It is mainly because of  city’s opponents in FPL GW3 opponents, Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s men were brushed aside by Chelsea last GW at the Emirates. One of the key points to note from that was how the Gunners were time and again caught napping in the left flank of their defense. To add to their troubles Kieran Tierney picked up a thigh injury and may well miss this weekend’s fixture. 

Now that we know that Arsenal‘s left side is a weakling, the question we should ask ( we’re trying to preempt Pep here) is who is Manchester City‘s best right-winger? Of course, it is Mahrez! Although Gabriel Jesus did a fabulous job down that side against the Canaries we reckon the Algerian wizard will reclaim his spot in the right flank. 

Last time out: The last time these two sides met in the league, City ran out 1-0 winners. Mahrez was the one who provided the assist for Sterling‘s winner.

Further Read: Assessing The Eye Test Of 3 FPL Players Who Caught My Eyes In FPL GW2

Abdoulaye Doucouré vs Brighton(A), TSB:1.4%

Abdoulaye Doucoure rather had an underwhelming 20/21 season in Everton colors. However, if the first two games of this campaign is anything to go by, it is safe to say that the Frenchman is finally finding his feet in Merseyside. 

In three seasons combined prior to joining Everton, the midfielder registered 31 attacking returns( 16 goals 15 assists). These numbers are very impressive considering that he’s an FPL asset priced in and around £5.5. Last season, however, he played much deeper as a result of which contributions in the attack were short-lived. Let us look at some data to understand this further. 

We have taken the 18/19 season as a base as that was Doucoure‘s best season in FPL in terms of attacking returns. It is evident that the Everton man is playing more like he used to in his Watford days. Most of the essential numbers are similar if not better than that of his 18/19 ones, albeit with a small sample space. 

It is too early to say if the Everton man can hit the heights of his days as a Hornet. But given the fact that he’s priced at £5.5, he can be the perfect enabler to create funds elsewhere. 

Fun fact: Doucoure has an attacking return in each of his last two appearances against Brighton (1 goal 1 assist). Can he make it three in three? 

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL Gameweek 3 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a success of more than 80% since debuting in GW29 last year and is absolutely free. Stay tuned for the same. Last week the metric predicted Mahrez ahead of Salah and Bruno and he scored a goal!

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Dele Alli vs Watford(H), TSB:2.7%

Remember him?  Probably not. But the Spurs midfielder we had Dele-ted from our memory(kindly ignore the pun) is back. Dele Alli scored his first premier league goal after 533 days last GW, against Wolves. Not just that, he completed back-to-back 90 minutes for the first time in more than a year. But the best part for us managers pondering if we should bring him in ahead of FPL GW3 is the fact that he took a penalty. Granted, he won’t take one if Kane is on the pitch. However, if Kane does leave( a big if) Spurs then we now know that Dele is their penalty taker. 

Spurs haven’t exactly set the world alight this season, despite winning two games. But Dele has been one of their shining lights right from the off. He started all 5 pre-season games and scored two goals in that time. Now generally we say not to take the off-season seriously. However, when pre-season form translates into performances when the campaign starts, then it is important to connect the dots. In other words, Dele has carried his pre-season form into the league and that makes him an FPL asset once again! 

Quick stat: The Englishman has a pretty good record against Watford. He has amassed 5 goals and an assist against them.

Further Read: Ivan Toney Hold or Sell? | Best FPL Forwards ahead of FPL GW3

Callum Wilson vs Southampton(H), TSB:6.5%

Callum Wilson was extremely unfortunate to not score a goal last week against Aston Villa. The striker inexplicably missed a gilt-edged opportunity in the first half. In the second half, he won a penalty which he was all set to take only for VAR to rule it out because of a marginal offside.  Essentially on another day, Wilson could have made it two goals from two matches. 

Wilson features in our FPL GW3 differentials blog because of two reasons. One is because he takes on Southampton this week. Southampton have an xGC of 3.9 so far, which is the joint fifth-worst in the league. Furthermore, Southampton have conceded 9 shots from headers(3rd highest) & 5 shots from set-pieces(joint highest). Meanwhile, Wilson has had 2 headed shots on goal(joint 3rd among strikers) & 1 headed goal. Surely it is a match made in heaven! 

Ricardo Pereira vs Norwich(A), TSB:5.6%

Ricardo Pereira for the first time post his injury looks like the player he was before that. The Leicester City full-back provided the assist for Vardy’s winner in the opening weekend of the season, against the Wolves. Against Westham too he looked lively in attack and nearly scored a goal even. 

Leicester City take on Norwich in FPL GW3. The Canaries have accumulated an xG of 1.3 so far this season, the second-worst in the league, after Crystal Palace(0.9). So the chances of Ricardo and co keeping a clean sheet is very high. 

Another pattern we have observed from the opening two games of Norwich is their obvious weakness down their left flank. In GW1 Mo Salah registered a goal and two assists attacking the left side of the Canaries’ defense. Manchester City too exploited the same side last week, 4 of the 5 goals they scored came from that flank. Ricardo could be the perfect person to target the weak spot of Daniel Farke’s men. 

Leicester‘s fixtures are pretty tasty for the next 5 GWs. Barring Manchester City post international break, the rest of their opponents in the FDR chart is ranked 2 or in case of Brighton 3. So investing in the Leicester defense we reckon could be a long-term one! 

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 3 Team reveal, Strategy, Captaincy, and Tips

Ultra-Differential Pick(<1% TSB) for FPL GW3:

Pablo Fornals vs Crystal Palace(H), TSB:0.6%

Highest goals(8) Highest xG(5.9), Most big chances(9), second for efforts on target(17), second for shots in the box(27). No we’re not talking about Manchester City or Manchester United. We’re talking about West Ham United. The Hammers are the table-toppers currently and have been playing some free-flowing attacking football. Whilst Antonio and Benrahma have stolen the headlines, the one who is quietly pulling the strings is Pablo Fornals. 

The Hammer who is priced at £6.0 has so far scored 1 goal and assisted another for his teammates. The midfielder tops the charts for big chances created(2), chances created(7), and final third passes(52) among West Ham players. 

Now it is true that a lot of us managers already have two West Ham attackers. Is it worth having a third one? We certainly think so this is because David Moyes’ men are the in-form team in the league and their next two fixtures makes an extra Hammer an enterprising option. 

Fun fact: As we said the next two fixtures for the East London side are attractive. They play Crystal Palace in GW3 following which they play Southampton, against whom Fornals registered 2 goals and an assist the last time the two teams met. 

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW3:

Ivan Toney Hold or Sell? | Best FPL Forwards ahead of FPL GW3
FPL Gameweek 3 Team reveal, Strategy, Captaincy, and Tips
Assessing The Eye Test Of 3 FPL Players Who Caught My Eyes In FPL GW2
How and When do we Fit Lukaku in our FPL Teams | Stats Analysis
FPL GW 2 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Key FPL Stats that Caught our Eye
FPL Gameweek 2 Fixture Wise Review From FPL Perspective | Eye Test

Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.

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Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL Gameweek 3 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a success of more than 80% since debuting in GW29 last year and is absolutely free. Stay tuned for the same. Last week the metric predicted Mahrez ahead of Salah and Bruno and he scored a goal!

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3?

We’ll be covering Gameweek three eye test analysis and review, fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 3, differential picks, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek three, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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