FDR won’t sound alien to you if you have played FPL previously. But for those joining the party this season,
FDR is a rating system that rates the fixture of a team on a quantifiable scale like 1-5, where “1” would mean it’s one of the easiest fixtures for that team this season and “5” would mean its one of the most difficult
These ratings are represented via graded colors to help you visually, and quickly analyze the run for a particular team. For example, below are fixtures for Villa for the first 6 GWs. You can see how quick and useful it becomes to assess a team’s run with FDRs
Here’s the link to FDR from the official FPL website: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/fixtures/fdr
But is this an article about FPL’s FDR? Of course NOT!!!
I crunched numbers to create a Fixture Difficulty Rating of my own and what we have brought for you is
– Our own FDR
– How it compares to FPL’s FDR
– A brief on the factors considered and methodology of FDR calculation
Our FDR for the 1st 15 game weeks
Here’s the output of my analysis for the 1st 15 GWs. I will keep adding one week after every game week is finished and update the inputs of FDR every 4 GWs to reflect the season’s progression.
Click on this link for the live version Full 38 game week FDR. I will be updating it every 4-5 game weeks to reflect every team's current form!
How it compares to FPL’s FDR
I made a video to compare my FDR with FPL’s output and explain the differences. It is a short ~8 minutes video that you should definitely check out
FDR Comparison:
I hope, this helped you to appreciate my FDR and the impact small changes can create in your planning!
My FDR Calculation – behind the scenes
We have known for a while now that FPL’s FDR is based on “complex algorithms” which we do not know!
Spoiler alert – My FDR is not at all complex (just in case you were flexing your brain!)
It follows very simple logic and inputs to arrive at the results. So, here we go (I can-not not think about Fabrizio now, Damn!)
- Step 1 is to assign a rating (for now it is between 1-6) to every team playing Premier League this season based on their last seasons performance
- Step 2 is to fit these ratings into a function, that would return a fixture rating (Illustration below), which is not dependent on Home/Away. I have also reviewed these fixture ratings subjectively.
- Step 3 is to apply home and away variations in difficulty which, after a couple of optimizations resulted in 0.25. Which means, I will add 0.25 to neutral fixture rating above if it is an away fixture and subtract the same if it is home.
This is kept constant only for the start of the season. As we progress in the season, we will learn more about every team's home/away form and seat occupancy scenario within each club. Accordingly, I will make the adjustments to the calculations.
I hope, this was a useful read for you. Don’t forget to check out my video on FPL FDR comparison and subscribe to my channel for more Fantasy content!
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of the 2021/22 Season:
An In-Depth Look at Team Structure 1: Three Premium Assets
2021/22 FPL Season: FPL Price Changes Explained | FPL Guide
2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
What is Effective Ownership(EO) in FPL? | FPL Guide
A Guide to FPL Team Structure | 21/22 FPL Season (Pre Wildcard)
How Structure and Approach can Shape your 2021/22 FPL Season
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