Gameweek 31 was largely a tricky, mixed bag for a lot of managers with some popular names among the community like Lingard, Iheanacho saving the grace. Entering the final stretch of the season, it is almost now or never time to take risks and catch up ranks in your min-leagues. In this article, we look at the FPL picks who are less owned compared to the template and are considered as differentials. Here is a look at the best differential picks(<10% TSB) and ultra-differential picks(<1% TSB) for this week and beyond, ahead of FPL GW32 deadline.
Note: The ownership and price given is at the time of writing, and is subject to change thereafter.
FPL GW32 Differential Picks:
Mason Greenwood(7.0) vs Burnley(H), TSB: 2.1%
Final stretch of the season and Greenwood rising as a potential differential is not new for FPL managers. In the final seven games of the last season, Greenwood scored 5 goals, 1 assist to fetch 47 points from the last 7 games averaging 6.71 points/game. This season too, he has shown glimpses of his season end form getting 17 points from the last 2 games. Greenwood managed a goal, assist to fetch 11 points in just 18 minutes of action against Spurs in GW32. He is expected to be a regular starter and a key player with Martial ruled out for the rest of the season. To make things better, Burnley’s defensive numbers does not look good. Burnley have conceded 95 shots(2nd highest), 32 shots on target(2nd highest), 18 big chances(2nd highest), xGC- 11.62(2nd worst) in the league since GW26. In fact, Burnley are the only Premier League side not to have a clean sheet in the league since GW26.
Greenwood- Stat attack
- Greenwood has the best shots/90(5.45), most shots inside the box/90(4.55) since GW28 in the league- Minimum 100 minutes.
- 12 shots(4th highest), 10 shots inside the box(2nd highest) since GW28, despite United blanking in GW29.
Jarod Bowen(5.9) vs Newcastle(A), TSB: 2.2%
West Ham have continued their astonishing form and their quest for Champions league with 55 points(4th place) and just one point behind 3rd placed Leicester. Thanks to Lingard, whose has fired up the Premier League since his arrival at West Ham- Most goals(8), 2nd most assists(4), Most shots on Target(17), Most bonus points(13), Most points(82) in the league since GW22. But the truth to be told, Lingard has over performed his numbers- 8 goals from xG of 4.59 and 4 assists from 1.84 xA. Lingard is currently owned by 27% managers compared to Bowen’s 2.2% ownership which raises Bowen’s stake as great differential option for FPL GW32 and beyond.
Bowen vs Lingard- Stats(Since GW28):
| Metric | Bowen | Lingard | Better numbers |
| Shots | 8 | 7 | Bowen |
| Shots on Target | 4 | 6 | Lingard |
| Shots inside the box | 8 | 7 | Bowen |
| Big chances | 3 | 2 | Bowen |
| xA | 0.77 | 0.31 | Bowen |
| Key passes/Big chances created | 3/1 | 2/0 | Bowen |
| FPL Points | 28 | 38 | Lingard |
From the above numbers, Bowen has better numbers than Lingard except for the main columns- Lingard has 4 goals, 2 assists compared to Bowen’s 3 goals and one assist. With Antonio ruled out, Bowen is likely to play a more advanced role and is expected to catch up his underlying numbers and may even outperform Lingard over the next few weeks.
Coady(4.9) vs Sheffield United, TSB: 6.7%
Wolves have not been able to reproduce the defensive form of last season due to certain injuries and their forced shift to a back four. With Boly(5.4) likely to be back this week or the next week, they should soon shift to a back five which is where they are more comfortable at. When Wolves play with four at the back, they concede a average of 2 big chances/game and their numbers are better with a back three and Boly back. Their next three fixtures- Sheffield, Burnley and West Brom surely guarantees a couple of clean sheets.
Sheffield United are at the bottom of the league for xG(4.60), Shots on Target(11), Goals scored(2) since GW25 and that should push Coady for a minimum of 6 points in FPL GW32.
Key stat:
Coady has the most big chances(3), 2nd best xG(1.06), joint 4th most for shots inside the box(4) in the league among defenders since GW27. He has not converted any of the three big chances which suggests he is likely due a goal.
Further Read: FPL DGW32 – Analyzing Spurs Assets Ahead of the Double Gameweek
Gabriel Jesus(9.2) vs Aston Villa, TSB: 3.1%
It has become quite obvious now that Pep prefers to play with a false 9 in big matches (i.e. UCL and other cup competitions). That has left the door open for Gabriel Jesus to play as a striker in Premier League matches. Now that the league title is more or less secure for Manchester City, it won’t be a surprise if Jesus starts most of the games from now up and till the end of the season.
Jesus has registered 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 8 starts. Furthermore, since GW 21 Gabriel Jesus has had 9 big chances, no Manchester City player has had more in that time. In fact, Only Kane, Salah and DCL have had more across the league. It is safe to say that no matter what team Pep puts out, they are going to have a lot of goal scoring opportunities. In a week where a lot of FPL managers are letting go of Manchester City assets, now is the time to pounce on those that are most likely to start in the league and take advantage of the situation.
Stat Attack: Surprisingly, Jesus has the most points among forwards(63) among forwards in the league since GW21. He is also 3rd for goals(6), 4th for xG(4.62), 4th for shots inside the box(21) among forwards since GW21.
Callum Wilson(6.5) vs West Ham(H), TSB: 5.5%
Newcastle despite certain poor performances are 6 points off the relegation, thanks to a certain Callum Wilson. Wilson before his injury had 10 goals and 6 assists from just 21 starts. He is the perfect definition of a talisman with an Goal involvement of 59% and xGI of 52% with only Kane better among forwards this season. With Saint Maximin(5.1) also returning from injury, Newcastle should be again among the goals. There is also an interesting match-up as West Ham conceded 14 shots from headers since GW28 which is the highest in the league and Wilson would love to capitalize on it if he gets good crosses from Ritchie and Almiron.
Stat attack:
- Impact player– Before last week’s win against Burnley in which Wilson played a part, Newcastle were winless since 3-2 win against Southampton in GW23. Incidentally that was the last game Wilson played before getting injured.
- Since GW28, West Ham have conceded the most shots(66), most shots inside the box(43), 8 goals(3rd highest) in the league. Cresswell and Rice’s injury also does not make things better.
Ultra-Differential pick for FPL GW32(<=1% TSB):
Daniel Podence(5.3) vs Sheffield United, TSB: 1.0%
This season luck has not been on Wolves side with injuries to several key players like Jimenez, Boly, Jonny, Podence at some point of the season. But only good thing for them in recent weeks has been the return of Podence from injury. With Jimenez not yet back, Neto ruled out, William Jose not able to get going, the onus is on Podence(5.3) with the help of Traore to get the goals. Podence has 3 goals, 2 assists this season fetching 68 points averaging 4.23 points/90 minutes.
Targeting teams playing Sheffield United has been the simple strategy over the past few weeks. Since GW25, Sheffield United have conceded the most shots on target(49), most big chances(28), worst xGC(17.46) in the league. Perhaps Sheffield might serve as the ideal kick start for Podence and Wolves who have kinder fixtures in the next three games- Sheffield, Burnley and West Brom).
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW32:
FPL DGW32 – Analyzing Spurs Assets Ahead of the Double Gameweek
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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Srinivasan S
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