This FPL GW30 blog is written by AK. He is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k twice with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. AK is also ranked number 7 in the all-time list of best FPL managers in India. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
After a much-needed International Break, we need to dust off the rust and get back into the Fantasy Zone. I’m debuting a spreadsheet that I have been using for a few years now to help me pick the best Captaincy option for my FPL team.
Wisdom Of the Crowd ~ FPL GW30 Captaincy Poll
[socialpoll id=”2736882″]
Harry Kane has amassed a massive 63% votes in our Captaincy Poll this week, playing against a struggling Newcastle side. There is a huge gap between him and the runner-up Patrick Bamford, who has just 10% of your votes.
Bruno Fernandes (7%), Marcos Alonso (7%), and Kevin DeBruyne (4%) make up our top 5 picks of the week.
I am going to analyze various factors that I think are important while picking the captain of the week. All stats mentioned are over the last six games.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates for FPL GW30
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Kane | 14 | 7 | 5 | 3.98 | 5.26 | 1 |
| Bruno | 4 | 14 | 3 | 2.22 | 3.20 | 2 |
| De Bruyne | 9 | 16 | 2 | 1.59 | 2.61 | 3 |
| Bamford | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1.55 | 1.99 | 4 |
| Alonso | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0.87 | 1.47 | 5 |
Harry Kane comes out on top in every Factor used, i.e., Shots Inside The Box (14), Big Chances Total (5), Expected Goals (xG) (3.98), and Expected Goals Involvement (xGI) (5.26).
Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes comes in behind Kane with an xG of 2.22 and an xGI of 3.20. Even though the Portuguese International has had only 4 Shots Inside the Box, 2 of them have been penalties, which boost up his Expected Goals tally.
Champions Elect Kevin DeBruyne, with an xG of 1.59 and an xGI of 2.61 is ranked third in this metric. With 9 Shots Inside the Box and 16 Chances Created in the last 6 matches he has played, the prospects of Kevin DeBruyne seem to be high, as long as Pep-Roulette doesn’t hit him, especially now when Manchester City are still involved in all 4 competitions.
The Crowd’s second most-loved pick of the week, Patrick Bamford, comes in at 4th in this metric. With some good underlying numbers such as Shots Inside the Box (10), Big Chances (4), Bamford suffers a bit in the xG department, with OPTA giving him an xG of 1.55 and xGI of 1.99 only. He has been receiving chances, but most of them have been low-quality chances.
The Darling of the Week Marcos Alonso comes in last. It is a bit unfair on him with some very good underlying numbers such as Shots Inside the Box (10) and Chances Created (10). But again, just like Bamford above, he suffers in the xG (0.87) and Big Chances (1) Departments.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Tottenham (Kane) | 41 | 13 | 9.64 | 2 |
| Manchester United (Bruno) | 39 | 7 | 6.84 | 5 |
| Manchester City (KdB) | 67 | 19 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Leeds United (Bamford) | 54 | 10 | 7.01 | 4 |
| Chelsea (Alonso) | 56 | 13 | 8.86 | 3 |
It doesn’t come as a surprise that Manchester City top this chart, as they have always done, ever since Pep Guardiola took over. With a total of 67 Shots Inside the Box and 19 Big Chances in the last 6 Gameweeks, City’s numbers are incomparable.
Surprisingly, it’s Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham that comes in second. With an xG of 9.64 in the last 6 Matches, the North Londoners pip Alonso’s team Chelsea to third place, who have an xG of 8.86. They do, however, have more Shots Inside the Box than Spurs and the same number of Big Chances in the last 6 matches.
Completing the ranking at 4th and 5th are Leeds United and Manchester United respectively. Bielsa’s side does have a decent quantity of Shots Inside the Box (54), but their Big Chances total has suffered a bit (10). Manchester United’s underlying numbers do not look promising, with a mere 39 Shots Inside the Box and 7 Big Chances in total, giving them an xG of 6.84, the least in the group.
Further Read: Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider
Fixture Difficulty metric of our captaincy candidates in FPL GW30
| (C)andidate | Shots Conceded Inside The Box | Big Chances Conceded | Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Newcastle United (vs Kane) | 54 | 13 | 8.86 | 2 |
| Brighton (vs Bruno) | 19 | 4 | 2.70 | 5 |
| Leicester (vs KdB) | 36 | 10 | 8.34 | 3 |
| Sheffield United (vs Bamford) | 62 | 24 | 14.01 | 1 |
| West Brom Albion (vs Alonso) | 23 | 9 | 6.6 | 4 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
Patrick Bamford’s opponents Sheffield United come off worst. With 62 Shots Conceded in the Box, a massive 24 Big Chances Conceded and a sky-high xG Conceded of 14.01, Sheffield United look down and out, more than ever.
Harry Kane’s opponents Newcastle United, are another team that have troubles on and off the pitch. A total of 54 Shots Conceded In the Box, 13 Big Chances conceded, and an xGC of 8.86 give Kane the second-best fixture of the lot.
Leicester City, who face DeBruyne and his team, just about come third, while Alonso’s opponents West Brom come 4th, with an xGC of 6.60.
Brighton have been in fine form recently, with one of the Best Defensive Numbers in the league in the recent past. With only 19 Shots Conceded inside the box and 4 Big Chances Conceded in the last 6 games, Brighton have a very healthy xGC of 2.70. Bruno Fernandes and his team Manchester United will have to work really hard to beat this Brighton side.
Further Read: Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in
Projections Rank of our captaincy picks for FPL GW30
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns GW30 (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Kane | 63% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Bruno | 53% | 5.5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| De Bruyne | 53% | 4.9 | 4 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 |
| Bamford | 59% | 4.5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Alonso | 74% | 4.8 | 1 | 4 | 2.5 | 2 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
It comes as no surprise to me that Harry Kane has a high probability of being both Safe and Explosive this week, with an Average Rank Factor of just 1.5.
The Darling of the week, Marcos Alonso, comes in at 2, and also is the safest Captaincy option this week, with a clean sheet probability of 63% vs West Brom.
Bruno Fernandes, Kevin De Bruyne, and lastly, Patrick Bamford complete this list, with Bruno being the second most explosive option this week.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix
Conclusion and Final Rank of our FPL GW30 Metric
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Harry Kane | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| Patrick Bamford | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| Marcos Alonso | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor. The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
And not very surprisingly. It’s Harry Kane that comes out on top, with a Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF) of just 6. Kevin DeBruyne comes in at second with a CRF of 11.
Patrick Bamford and Marcos Alonso come in at joint 4th with a CRF of 14, while Bruno Fernandes finishes in the last place, with a CRF of 15, highlighting how good Brighton have been and how difficult Manchester United have found in attack in the recent past.
Any Comments, Constructive Criticism, Feedback, And/Or Suggestions to improve the Model are welcome here in the Comments Section, or on Twitter.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30:
FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix
The best Fixtures to target for most attacking points in FPL GW30
Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider
Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in
Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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