The Reaction Principle | Analyzing The Relegation Facing Teams and Their FPL Impact

I remember listening to a highly rated podcast after Spurs Southampton match this season in early September, Son had exploited a high defensive line of Southampton and scored 4 goals with Kane providing all the assists. The podcast was analyzing the next match against Burnley and was discussing how Dwight McNeil would exploit this high line down their right side and Burnley forwards have a genuine chance next match. As I took in those inputs, what made me wonder for a few minutes was that- Southampton coaching staff obviously understood their mistake, they had a good coach & a solid team, will they not rectify this problem. Will there not be a Reaction to the heavy defeat? I am not going to gloat about how my double Southampton defense gave me good points for half this FPL season, but I am going to write about a football / FPL principle that talked very little about something I like to call “The Reaction” Principle.

While there are multiple ways to look into this principle, one of the most obvious ways of understanding this can be when we look at the Performance of the Bottom Sides in PL. Often finding themselves in most targeted fixtures, sometimes I wonder what do the players, the coaches think about it? Frequent Readers of AllaboutFPL would remember my first article last month was around a differential WC squad with a key eye on fixture analysis. As I was writing the article, I had something on the back of my mind- a doubt. What if the easy fixtures aren’t as it looks? What if teams like WBA with everything to fight and not much to lose, start fighting their way back. 

At this point, what I am talking about seems more like conjecture or maybe a hack looking at the recent results of some of the sides but I assure you these thoughts aren’t merely based on hunches. To prove a point, I wanted to look back into previous seasons to see If my theory had any practical backing. So I decided to analyze the results of the last 3 seasons to see how the bottom sides have fared over the last 6 weeks (GW 33-38) and whether there is any phenomenon we can learn from it. At the end of each analysis, we would look at whether our Reaction Factor was a Hit, Miss, or Maybe. Then, we will come back to our bottom 5 of this season and try to forecast a version based on this Principle. Sounds like fun? Well, let’s go. 

PL Season 2017-18

2017-18 had one of the toughest relegation battles with the bottom 5 pretty much mired in the battle till the very end. A quick look at the PL table will tell you how the teams ended this season with some variance in their results towards the end. We will look at them in some detail now below.

Huddersfield FC

A first look at Huddersfield will make you feel they did not do well at all with 1 D, 1 W followed by 1 L, 2Ds and 1 L again. But when you look at the opponents, you get the bigger picture- the story of struggle or the reaction that we were talking about earlier. Their last 3 matches interestingly were against Man city ( Pep’s record breaking side), Chelsea & Arsenal. With 2 draws and 1 slim defeat, Huddersfield earned their place back in the league & lot of plaudits from their fans. I wonder how the FPL managers that season would have felt after targeting some of these fixtures.

Reaction Principle- Hit

Southampton FC

Southampton were struggling this season around bottom 3 for much of second half of the season and they seemed down and out with the loss against Chelsea though a hard fought one being their 4th consecutive loss. And yet, the same team knowing they had nothing, but relegation written all over them ended their next 6 matches with 2 Ws, 2Ds & 2Ls to end up safe on 17^th position. Just to add, their 2 narrow losses were against City & Chelsea, they won their relegation fight match against Swansea and landed a tough blow on Bournemouth as well. To add, the draws against teams in top half of the table- Everton & Leicester. A typical fighting end to a season saved.

Reaction Principle- Hit

Swansea FC

Swansea did the reverse of Southampton after having fought back from bottom to 13^th place by GW 29 with consecutive wins over Liverpool & Arsenal at one point. However, it seemed an early rise as  when things looked better for them and they seemed set for another season in PL, they just could not cope up anymore with the pressure. A deeper look at the last 4 matches shows you pretty close matches and a fight that just did not result in any points for them. Overall, though they thoroughly disappointed and ended getting relegated.

Reaction Principle- Flop

Stoke City

Having preceded GW 33 with 3 Draws and then 3 Losses, Stoke were pretty much clear for relegation despite the presence of a solid squad behind them. Stoke started April with a tough loss against Arsenal where all goals scored against them were in the final quarter of the match. Following this was a narrow defeat to Spurs but what would hurt them was a 90^th min equalizer by West Ham followed by another lead thrown away against Burnley. The draw against Liverpool was followed by another lead thrown away against Crystal Palace when a win would have kept things close for them. Performance wise I see enough of reaction principle in the team as they tried to turn things around but I guess West Ham equalizer put a huge dent on them.

 Reaction Principle- Maybe

West Brom

Entering GW 33 with 7 consecutive losses and being in relegation places since GW 18, WBA surely entered the last stretch with a target at their back. Enter a turn around that perhaps eptomizes the reaction principle at its zenith- 3 W, 2 D,1 L. WBA might have left it too late but they turned it around in style. Their wins were against teams like Man United & Newcastle Away and Spurs at Home. To add to this, they also had an entertaining 2-2 draw to Liverpool at home. I guess you know how the assessment ends for them.

Reaction Principle- Super Duper Hit !!

Now, as we move on to the next season, let us recap we have 5 bottom teams with 3 Hits, 1 Maybe & only 1 Flop !! 

PL Season 2018-19

2018-19 was easily the FPL season of Salah who bamboozled his way into hearts of many FPL managers. It was also the first season that I played FPL till the very end !! At the other end of the table, we do have a different story than last year.

Southampton FC

After saving themselves by the skin the year before, Southampton did not have brightest of seasons again ending at 16^th place. By GW 33, they did have some form with 3 wins out of 5 having defeated Spurs, Brighton & Fulham. Post a strong win against Wolves, however they fizzled down as they ended the season with 1 W, 3 D & 2Ls. 

Reaction Principle- Flop

Brighton FC

Having started the season brightly being around top 10 for most part, Brighton imploded in the second half of the season littered with losses and draws with only 3 wins of the last 18 matches. Their season ended with 3Ls & 3 Ds. The only saving grace being the poor performances of those down below. Brighton did however have a tight loss to Spurs, draws with Arsenal and Wolves which will show some glimpses of our principle. However, overall assessment is well known.

Reaction Principle- Flop

Cardiff City

In the aftermath of a transfer that never went through of Late Emiliano Sala, Cardiff side tried to battle to save what was their 2^nd season in PL history. Cardiff entered GW 33 having been in 18^th position for 5 straight weeks and despite best efforts ended with 3Ls & 2 Ws.

As we look deeper, the team had some narrow defeats against Fulham ( 79^th min. goal against fellow relegation rivals) & Crystal Palace. They ended 1 win short and while they fought hard against Liverpool  again conceding in second half. The reaction factor showed them ending their season with a win at Old Trafford but still they would go back very disappointed with themselves.

Reaction Principle- Maybe 

Fulham FC

A typical season ender surprise came from Fulham this time as they followed 12 defeats in 14 matches with 3 wins in their last 6. 3 consecutive wins came against Everton, Bournemouth and a Cardiff heart breaker.

A relegation surety meant they had nothing to play for and only a close 75^th min conceded goal against Wolves broke that run followed by a Newcastle whitewash. Surely, it did not save them but this team did get the reaction that they wanted to end things with.

Reaction Principle- Hit

Huddersfield Town

Reaction Principle- Flop

PL 2019-20

A quick look at the last season would perhaps be the best refresher before we start analysing the current one, one of common fan favourites Bournemouth went down with Watford while Aston Villa saved their skin at the last moments. Let’s look at it deeper again, shall we?

West Ham United

Having stopped a run of 3 losses with an exhilarating 3-2 win over Chelsea in GW 32, West Ham started their form of this season with this run of 2Ws,3Ds & 1L. David Moyes side built on Antonio playing as a forward and used their pieces well as a 4-0 thrashing of Norwich ( Remember those Antonio points or did you miss out !!) They defeated Watford as well ensuring they remain safe for the next season while the season ended with hard fought draws against Man United & fellow strugglers, Aston Villa. This was a glimpse of the UCL contenders that we have seen this season for sure.

Reaction Principle- Super Duper Hit

Aston Villa

Having spent last 5 weeks in bottom 3 & winless from the last 8 GWs, Aston Villa perhaps were set for relegation as they started this stretch with 2 expected losses against Liverpool ( late second half goals sinking them) & Man United. However, a solid 2-0 win against Crystal Palace gave them some hope while they remained rooted at 19^th with 3 weeks to go.

Luck made it worse as a 87^th min equalizer ensured they remained at same place with 2 weeks to go. However, a defensive masterclass against Arsenal gave them an unlikely win and to add, they did well to draw against West Ham ensuring their safety.

Reaction Principle- Hit

Bournemouth FC

Bournemouth FC came into GW 33 with 7 match winless streak (6 Ls & 1D) looking very similar to Aston Villa and very surely at the relegation corridor.To make things worse, they faced a rejuvenated Man United with Bruno magic working heavily in a 5-2 defeat. Next up was a tightly fought 0-0 draw against spurs with both sides lamenting referee decisions as Bournemouth almost won it late. As Bournemouth fought for the last time to save themselves, they came up with a surprise 4-1 win against 10 man Leicester giving some glimpses of comeback. Next up were revitalized Man city- and in a tighlty fought match, City supremacy put them through 2-1. The battle was lost in a 2-0 loss to Southampton at home with the second goal coming deep into extra time. Bournemouth went down in style with a 3-1 win against Everton and would definitely have got away had they woken up slightly early. Reaction factor definitely there as Leicester, Everton and Spurs found out.

Reaction Principle- Hit

Watford FC

Watford fired a record 3 managers as they tumbled into the championship. The sacking of Nigel Pearson 2 matches before the end and with 3 points ahead of relegation line showed how inexperienced administration can impact teams.On the pitch, they produced a 3-0 invincible ending win against Liverpool as only season defining moment perhaps other than a 8-0 drubbing early on. 2 consecutive wins against already relegated Norwich and Newcastle gave some hope especially the latter being second half turn around.but once West Ham defeated them, their management threw in the towel before City & Arsenal matches. The last one where Watford produced multiple big chances and somehow could not turn around a 3-0 deficit.

Reaction Principle- Flop

Norwich City FC

Norwich spent entire second half of season rooted in 20^th spot and ended the season with 10 consecutive losses ending the season with a mere 21 points.Interesetingly, they are all set for a return to PL already and would definitely have learnt lessons from this season. For me, the season Norwich city will produce in the coming one is a definite “Reaction Principle Test. This season however, there was just no glimpse of any reaction as the championship winners under Daniel Farke gave up long long back.

Reaction Principle- Super Duper Flop

PL 2020-21

As we reviewed bottom 5 clubs for the last 3 seasons, in summary we have seen an astounding number of hits (~ 50%) against reaction principle. ( Hits- 7, Maybe- 2,Flops-6) We had two Super Duper Hits & only 1 Super Duper Flop among these clubs. It does highlight that while we continue our bias against the bottom sides especially when it comes to the season ending fixtures, there seems a proof that some teams utilize the extra motivation to escape relegation and sometimes even use it as an impetus for a stellar next season. ( West Ham, Aston Villa and to add, my all time favourite pick- Leicester)

Now, let us look at this season and how the bottom 5 looks like today ( before Lei vs West Brom in GW 32):-

Brighton & Hove Albion

A statistical anamoly of a season has seen Brighton play wonderful football and yet hover around bottom 5. With 2 Ws,2 Ds & 2Ls ( close ones), we can see Brighton have fought back well and seem to be in the middle of a good spell. The coming fixtures do look tougher post this sheffield match but Brighton are never a team judged on fixtures and to add, neither does the reaction principle. Cheap Defenders remain their key FPL attractive point and Dunk is a key differential as they keep attacking those corners.  

Burnley FC

Burnley have had a very inconsistent season with a slight peak so far. In last 6 GWs, they have returned 1 W,2 Ds & 3Ls. Burnley have definitely improved a lot in their attack, their underlying numbers looking good as well, Burnley might as well be the team to watch out for despite the last 3 Ls.

Fulham FC

Fresh off a 97^th min conceded draw, Fulham have been a team that has been fighting a lot to avoid relegation. While defensively they have been solid, it is upfront that they lack ammunition. Their only win in last 6 was a solid one against Liverpool. They have lose 2 close matches against wolves ( Last min winner) & Spurs as well. Fulham has so far shown all indications of being on the verge of the Reaction. 

West Bromich Albion

West Bromich Albion have suddenly turned up their screws to be one of the best attacking sides ( in Europe !!) over the last few weeks. Over the last 6 GWs, they have 3 Ws, 2Ls & 1 D. Their win against Chelsea really made FPL managers sit up and notice of them. However, the road ahead is one of most difficult ones for Sam Allardyce’s men as they face some of the best defensive teams in the league. Their x factor though might make them the most fun team to watch inspite of heavy chances of relegation. Hoping this reaction does not burn out early though..

Sheffield United

Already having lost their talismanic coach, Chris Wilder- sheffield are dead set to be relegated as one of the worst sides in PL history with only 14 points so far. Having lost 5 straight games, Sheffield have nothing to play for except honor and a new coach. The match against Wolves did show some fight but if the team for now still has some work to do to show us glimpses of reaction.

For the final part, I thought it would be nice for us to check on which clubs are expected to provide a Reaction in the coming weeks till the end of the season.Couple of clubs high on my list is BHA & Fulham basis the eye test. West Brom might not be able to garner a lot of points in PL table but I expect their players to provide lucrative FPL options. I have put in a list of Prediction on my end as to who can be best followers of this principle & players/ games to watch out for. The relegation battle looks slightly settled but who knows we might be up for a huge twist. 

Club Name	Predicted Reaction Principle	Players to watch out for	Games to watch out
Brighton & Hove Albion	Hit	Dunk, Trossard, Grob	Leeds,Wolves,Arsenal
Burnley FC	Maybe	Wood,McNeil, Vydra	West Ham, Leeds,SHU
Fulham	Hit	Andersen,Lookman	Chelsea,Sou,Newcastle
West Brom	Maybe	Perreira,Phillips,Robinson	Villa,Wolves,Leeds
Sheffield United	Flop	Fleck,Mcgoldrick, Brewster	Crystal Palace, Everton,Burnley

So with this, we are coming to the end of a really long article !! I hope you guys liked it. Please share your views on the Reaction Principle and if you used it sometime to make FPL decisions.

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