This FPL GW28 & BGW29 matchups blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com.
Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our FPL decisions.
Welcome back to FPL GW28 & BGW29 Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our FPL decisions.
Life events, Der Klassiker & el Derbi Madrileño have prevented me from watching much of the #GW27 matches. I guess I must admit that the big red arrows I’ve been impaled with in FPL recently have also curbed my interest. The result was interesting as it led to a quite stats heavy matchups article this week.
Among the most famous Buddhist paradoxes is “form is emptiness, emptiness is form.” I find this paradox best explained, however, by Taoism. Taoism uses the analogy of a cup. It is the substance (form) of the cup that defines what it is, but it is the empty space inside that gives it purpose. I see stats and eye test in futbol in much the same way. The stats are what give us the language to define the experience and find patterns, the eye test is ineffable. A feeling we crudely try to translate.
This is the first part of an analysis of my favorite situations in BGW29.
I have selected 5 defenses, and their corresponding matchups for BGW29 to put under the microscope.
- BHA (liv, bur, avl, cry, wba, lei)
- WHU (avl, ful, shu, tot, mci, lee)
- ARS (wol, avl, lee, mci, lei, bur)
- TOT (mba, mci, whu, bur, ful, cry)
- FUL (eve, bur, shu, cry, tot, liv)
Drawing from inspiration from @FPLMariner’s FDR, I have created a mini-FDR for specific stats for GW29. The idea is to piece together, in a Voltron fashion, the different elements to determine the strengths and vulnerabilities w/ the matchups.
Let’s begin by looking at some direct stat comparisons, then proceed with an overview of each team. All data is from last 6 GWs.
In each graph we see the defense being examined on the left side, and their attacking opponent on the right side. The left column will be green, yellow, or red to indicate the expected difficulty for that stat in that matchup. The opponent column on the right is always in grey and it indicates the opposing stat. The 6 stats being used here are in relation to SIB, BC, xG, chances on left, middle, & right.
- BHA have 4 green and 2 yellow.
- WHU have 5 yellow and 1 red.
- ARS have 4 red, 1 yellow, and 1 green.
- TOT have 4 green and 2 yellow.
- FUL have 3 red, 2 yellow, 1 green.
It would be a shortcut to thinking to accept a conclusion that the more greens, and the less reds, the better the matchup. Context is important here. For example, the last 6 opponents for both the defenses we are looking at and their opponents is relevant. There are also important injury concerns to note, in addition to tactical considerations and form.
Interesting to note that BHA, WHU, & FUL are tied for second in the league for fewest BCC (7).
Further Read: FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
BHA – liv, bur, avl, cry, wba, lei
vs
NEW – cry, sou, che, mun, wol, wba
With impressive overall defensive stats, many eyes are turning to BHA defenders in their matchup against NEW in 29. It must be noted that they have had to fortune of playing against teams with a weaker attacking threat, teams severely out of form, and teams ravaged by injury. Even so, their defensive stats are impressive enough to rank them 2nd best for SIBC (29) and BCC (7).
BHA also have the luxury of facing a NEW team that ranks 18th in xG (5.68), and 19th in BC (6) so their defensive prospects certainly look good. The one thing that raises an eyebrow about this matchup is that NEW have the 5th most SIB in the last 6 matches (47). This, however, isn’t particularly an area of weakness for BHA.
NEW have been able to find Joelinton as an outlet on the right lately, but it is a long way from there to the box. The heatmaps show us how BHA limit their opponents to the periphery in terms of chances created and even the shots in the box have a relatively low xG.
The matchups story looks quite promising for BHA in 29, but the chances through the middle could be an area of concern since BHA have conceded a reasonably generous 16 chances from there in their last 6 while NEW have created 13 chances there.
My choice: Veltman 4.3M. The Ajax man has Ajax DNA, and it shows with his approach to the box. The attacking threat, combined with his price, and seemingly nailed now that Lamptey has been ruled out for the season, make him the prime target from this back line. Doubling up may be a bit too much considering their fixtures after 29, but BHA defenders’ price certainly makes a double up an option.
Further Read: FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
WHU – avl, ful, shu, tot, mci, lee
vs
ARS – wol, avl, lee, mci, lei, bur
WHU are also ranked 2nd for fewest SIBC in the last 6 (7), but they have conceded 48 SIB in that time. WHU don’t have the stats some of the other teams here have, but they seem to be a “bend-but-don’t-break” defense. They can manage with the chances from the flanks, but the chances through the middle, combined with the xG stats are what would concern me for WHU defense.
ARS have the players, system, and form to exploit this weakness in the middle. WHU get littered with chances, but very few are high xG chances. The orange mark for the chances created on Auba’s side is a little concerning given his form as well. ARS do not create too many BC as they sit 12th in that category over the last 6 with 10. They have, however, generated a healthy 9.18 xG from that, which doesn’t bode well for WHU when they concede so many chances.
WHU also have the necessary pieces to exploit a similar vulnerability in ARS as ARS also have a similar defensive vulnerability in the middle of the field.
ARS is the other team tied for 2nd over the last 6 with only 7 BCC. You can see this reflected in the heat map with very little green in dangerous areas. It is interesting that despite the few big chances, the xGC is quite high.
Antonio is a player that consistently generates a high xG and is largely responsible for WHU having the highest xG of the opponents here. ARS have the highest xGC of this group with 6.89, and, while that is not very high in general, it is notable here given WHU high xG with the 2nd most BC in the last 6 (15).
With goals likely in this one, it is difficult to recommend their defenses unless they have attacking capability (Cresswell, Tierney) and it is for the long term.
Further Read:
TOT – wba, mci, whu, bur, ful, cry
vs
AVL – ars, bha, lei, lee, shu, wol
It must be said, Spurs do well with a kind run of fixtures. They can have a susceptibility on their right side, but Grealish is not yet healthy to exploit it. This matchup really comes down to Grealish. If he is healthy, then it suddenly becomes tricky for TOT because of the matchup on that side of the field. We can see that area in bright green in the chances conceded heat map.
If Jack is able to light up the area in green, then the high xG shots will be available for Watkins. If Grealish plays for AVL, this could be a trap game for TOT they have capitalized on easier fixtures. Even w/o Grealish, AVL has a xG∆ of -3.4 so they are severely underperforming their stats. Some positive regression may be in store if Watkins can find some form, ever.
The only Spurs defender I would consider is Reguilon for his attacking threat against a Villa side that has given up 22 chances from their right side in the last 6 (without Cash).
Further Read: FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
FUL – eve, bur, shu, cry, tot, liv
vs
LEE – eve, cry, ars, wol, sou, avl
Fulham has a xGC∆ of -2.8 so their defense has been somewhat lucky of late, but they have also been very good. They have the 2nd lowest xGC (4.8), 2nd only to CHE, in the last 6, and they are the last team in this list that is 2nd for BCC with only 7.
The stats comparisons, however, indicate that the specific matchups are not that favorable for FUL.
All the orange in the chances conceded heat map for FUL is on their left side. This is Raphinha’s primary side and one from where LEE created 14 chances in the past 6. Looking at FUL opponents, they have not faced a formidable challenge on this side in the last 6 matches other than an out of form Salah. Raphinha will be a whole different animal attacking the weakest part of this defense.
To add, FUL have also conceded the most BC of the teams in this group in the last 6 (10), and nobody has created more BC than Raphinha in the last 6 (6). Raphinha will be licking his chops at the combination of these stats in this matchup.
I don’t have faith in a FUL defender, but if I had to choose one, it would be Adarabioyo or Andersen.
I will most likely only be fielding 2 or 3 defenders this GW as I feel a couple of strategic selections could cover the points nicely. Just a little quality and a little luck to get by this lackluster BGW.
Further Read:
Looking forward to discussing this all w/ @FPLMariner on #NetThatHaul.
Next week’s article will be Part 2: GW29 Attackers. Thanks everyone and all the best of luck in #GW28.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW28:
FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
Best Possible Free Hit Draft & Team For FPL GW29
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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