GW22 Proved to be a high scoring week for a lot of us FPL managers with most of the popular FPL assets returning points with Mo Salah being an exemption. A tight fixture schedule means we have another deadline fast approaching us. Not just that we are getting to DGW24 and DGW25 with Man City, Everton, Fulham, and Burnley playing twice in GW24. Followed by Southampton, Leeds United playing twice in GW25. GW23 is the ideal time to make some short term moves to gain valuable points and climb up in the overall and min league rankings. So without further ado let’s look at our top five differential picks ahead of FPL GW23 Deadline.
FPL GW23 Differential picks
Note: Ownership of players mentioned are taken at the time of writing. Actual ownership might change as we move close to the deadline.
Raphinha vs Crystal Palace(H), £5.3 Mil, TSB: 1.3%
Raphinha has been the classic FPL case of overlooking budget options and moving for priced ones just because you have money. Many managers have transferred him out which led to his price fall to £5.3 today. In fact, Raphinha has the most points(27) for any player in the game since GW20 averaging 9 points per game. An attacking side like Leeds should fancy their chances against a Palace side who has conceded 24 big chances(3rd highest), xGC- 17.03(5th worst) in the league since GW13. Raphinha would too interested to add to his 2 goals and 2 assists from the last 3 games. Now that a double game week is coming up for Leeds in GW25 now could be the ideal time to bring in Raphinha in your team.
Leeds United DGW25 Fixtures:
Wolves (A), Southampton (H)- Another case to bring in Raphinha is that Leeds has two games in DGW25 playing Wolves(A) and Southampton(H).
Key stat: Raphinha has 2 goals(Joint 2nd), xG-1.33(5th), 4 shots on target(Joint 2nd), 6 shots inside the box(Joint 4th), 2 big chances(Joint 2nd), 2 assists(Joint 2nd) among midfielders since GW20.
Bukayo Saka vs Aston Villa(A), £5.4 TSB: 9.9%
Bukayo Saka has been in scintillating form since GW15 and is still surprisingly going under the radar due to the emergence of other budget midfielders. Saka has 4 goals, 3 assists from his last 7 games averaging 7.71 points/game. Against Wolves he was unlucky not to get at least a goal in the first 30 minutes before tragedy stuck Arsenal with red cards. Saka has been the creative force on the right for Arsenal and will surely play an integral part if Arsenal have to make it to Europe this season!
Saka- Stat attack
- Since GW15, only Gundogan(66) and Fernandes(60) have got more FPL points than Saka(54).
- Only Salah(18) and Mane(18) has taken more shots from inside the box than Saka(15) among midfielders since GW15.
Allan Saint Maximin vs Southampton(H), £5.1, TSB: 2.4%
Newcastle and Steve Bruce are just breathing down the neck and it would require a Saint Maximin special to save Bruce’s job which was even accepted by Bruce. Saint Maximin has slowly returned from injury playing 19, 26, 23, 27 minutes over the last 4 games. Bruce has confirmed that ASM is not far way from starting a game quoting before GW22- “He’s had three substitute appearances and we think he could be ready to start.”
Even without ASM starting Newcastle have gradually improved their attack over the last 4 weeks as seen by below numbers. They are up against a depleted, bruised Southampton side without KWP and Vestergaard who conceded 9 goals against Manchester United. Perhaps this might be the perfect comeback game for Saint Maximin to match his impressive last season- 4.43 points/game.
Newcastle attack- GW14- GW18 vs GW19- GW22
- Matches- 5 vs 5
- Shots inside the box- 24 vs 42
- Big chances- 3 vs 7
- xG- 3.69 vs 5.27
Luke Shaw vs Everton(H), £4.9, TSB: 4.4%
Luke Shaw presents us FPL managers to get an in form attacking fullback from a top-six side for under 5 million. That alone should be enough to get him in our FPL teams. Don’t worry we’ll not leave without making a strong case for him. Shaw has been in top form over the last few weeks and has emerged as one of the best fullbacks in PL this season.
Since GW17, Luke shaw has made an xA of 2.67 which is bettered only by teammate Bruno Fernandes(3.10) who has played 121 minutes more. Likewise, Shaw has made 19 key passes bettered only Super jack who has 20 key passes to his name during the period.
Luke shaw crossing stats: Shaw has registered the second-most crosses(52) in the PL since GW17 with TAA being the only one who has registered more(65). The successful crosses however tell a different story, shaw has made 17 successful crosses with a success percentage of 33% whereas TAA has registered just 6 successful crosses with a success percentage of just 9%. Now that Cavani playing regularly the crosses are being converted to goals and it should go further up in the coming days!
Against Southampton Shaw registered two assists, created five chances out of which two of them were big chances registering an xA of 0.95 in just 45 minutes. Such a shame that he was subbed off at halftime as a precaution by Ole, missing out on a potential monster haul.
Finally, Man United and Shaw face Everton, West Brom and Newcastle in the next three weeks. There’s potential for huge returns.
Here’s a tweet by @FPL_Banger Comparing the stats of Shaw and AWB:
We’ll definitely go Shaw over AWB as he’s cheaper and the numbers are very impressive for Shaw inspite of the fact he’s played lesser minutes.
Dawson vs Fulham(A), TSB: 0.7%
Since GW16 West Ham have the second best xGC(5.89) in the league only behind Manchester City(2.58) and have also conceded the 3rd least big chances(7) only behind City(2) and Leicester(6). If you are not able to afford the attacking full backs in the form of Cresswell(5.6) and Coufal(4.7), Dawson(4.5) offers a cheaper route. He himself has attacking numbers to show for with 2 goals from last 3 games. With the next two games against Fulham and Sheffield, one of the West Ham defenders looks to be a must-own and Dawson offers the easiest route to be in ahead of FPL GW23.
Dawson’s numbers: Most big chances(2), 2nd best xG(1.00), Most goals(2) among defenders since GW16.
Special Pick- Marcus Alonso vs Sheffield United, TSB: 2.0%
Having made the left wing-back slot his own with two consecutive appearances, Alonso is one of the best-attacking defenders in the game to look ahead of FPL GW23. Fixtures also favor Alonso with Chelsea playing Sheffield, Newcastle, and Southampton in the next 3 games. Alonso scored a goal, had an xG of 0.51, 1 big chance, 2 shots inside the box, and a clean sheet, fetched 14 points in his comeback against Burnley, and will be surely looking for more!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW23:
FPL GW23 Captain Picks to Consider Ahead of GW23 Deadline
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools – All That You Need To Know About Fantasy Football Fix
FPL Tools: All That You Need to Know About FPL Gameweek Tool
Tools Series- FPL: All About Premier FPL Tools
FPL Tools: All that you need to know about FPL Planner
FPL Tools Series- Best Chrome Plugin – FPL Tools Chrome
FPL Tools: All That You Need to Know About FPL Review
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Srinivasan S
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