FPL GW21 Matchups & Fixture Analysis | Five Key Players Put Under the Lens Ahead of GW21

This blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com
Welcome back to my FPL matchups blog for GW21. This is where I use my coaching lens to examine teams, players, and situations in the premier league with the aim of gaining some insight for FPL.

Last GW I had a strong urge to captain Cancelo, but of course, I went with Bruno. I have been reflecting on why I shied away from Cancelo in the end, and I think the reason is that he is a defender. It is common, or perhaps historic, FPL knowledge that defenders have limited upside. I was not conscious of this motivation at the moment, so I did not question it. I should have. This lesson and the hauls from defenders in DGW19 draw my attention to the defenders that offer upside by being in good attacking situations.

Six players put under the lens ahead of FPL GW21

1. Joao Cancelo
2. Lucas Digne
3. Ben Chilwell
4. James Justin
5. Luke Shaw
6. Little Prince Pick of the Week ~ Matt Targett

Joao Cancelo vs Sheffield United (H)

Cancelo’s haul in FPL GW20 came as no surprise to most managers. Both eye test and stats have been screaming attacking returns, and he delivered with a triple return. In GW 20, Cancelo created more chances than any other defender (3) and had the most touches of all defenders in the final third (41). He is not a penalty area attacking defender, he rather pulls the strings around the box and scores an occasional peach. 

To unlock the secret to Cancelo’s success, we must travel back to FPL GW13 when Ilkay Gundogan netted his first goal of the season. It was, in fact, our boy Cancelo who assisted the assist when he played Sterling into the box before Sterling found Gundogan, but it’s KDBs positioning as of this match, that is of immediate interest. The heat maps show us that KDBs positioning has been shifting to the inside channel on the right side since Gundogan has been involved more in the attack.   

This is significant because when KDB went down injured, Cancelo was able to fill in for him in the inside channel.

Joao Cancelo with and without KDB

While Bilva will continue to line up in KDBs position, his role is to vacate space for Cancelo to operate. KDBs role being shared with Gundogan has made MCI much more adaptable, and much less predictable. Cancelo moving inside to center midfield reminds me a lot of Kimmich’s development at Bayern. 

Lucas Digne vs Newcastle United (H)

Digne does not have the stats to support this pick, but he does have the situation. Ancelotti’s back 4 has been performing well in Digne’s absence so Digne saw a move to left wing in a hybrid 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1. The stats were not on Digne’s side today as LEIs intensity gave EVE problems, but the positioning was there.

The touches heat map shows us that Digne did have to track back and spend some time winning the ball on the flank. The passes received heat map, however, shows that EVE wanted to get Digne the ball high up the field. They did not want him building play from the back. In games where EVE are more in control, Digne may serve as the outlet that Richarlison once was while Richarlison may be far post.

Speaking of games where EVE are more in control, they face NEW next. Newcastle are 19th crosses conceded from Right (219), 18th chances conceded from Right (74), MOST chances conceded from ctr (93). Digne could be serving up a feast in a nice matchup in FPL GW21.

Ben Chilwell vs Burnley (H)

Tuchel is in town and the tactical improvement to the squad was predictably immediate. Tuchel’s experience has given him the confidence to change CHE formation, and move to a back 3 of Azpi, Silva, and Rudiger. This change cast Chilwell high up the pitch and with enough defensive cover from the DM and CB to focus on attack. Chilwell’s stats last match are underwhelming, but that is understandable in a team that has a new manager and is playing a new formation for the first time.

The touches heat map show Chilwell almost in line with CHO on the right side, except CHO tends to get to the end line a little more while Chilwell seems to stop at the edge of the box. One more thing to note in the heat map is that Chilwell barely touched the ball in his own half vs WOL. He was relieved of much of his defensive duties with the position change, allowing him the freedom to be a part of the front 5.

Chilwell faces BUR next, who have conceded the 2^nd most chances from the right in the last 4 GWs (19), and the MOST chances from the center (25). These are good numbers for both Chilwell and whoever plays the 9 for CHE at the weekend.

To add, Chilwell has a solid keeper behind him who has recorded 2 clean sheets in the last 4, including 6 saves from shots in the box. He is in a similar situation as Digne, except he has a better defense and GK behind him. The likely clean sheet against BUR in addition to his more advanced role and the manager change may have me taking a hit to bring Chilwell in for Bailly.

James Justin vs Leeds United (H)

Confession: I have not owned Justin all season and therefore really did not want to write about him. It’s difficult for me to explore players that have just hurt me all season, but I would be remiss if I ignored him. Justin has arguably been the best value defender in the game this season. Early adopters have not only seen exciting returns but have also enjoyed making cash from his price rises.

Having missed the value boat early in the season, my attention is elsewhere. Justin has been a streaky player this season and his returns have been somewhat unpredictable. He has returned against respectable attacking opponents the likes of TOT, CHE, & SOU in addition to some whipping boys such as WBA, BUR, & BHA. He has also blanked against bad attacking teams.

He is not enjoying a good run of form now, and he has been playing further back since moving to the left side of the field. He seems to be more comfortable penetrating around the outside of the back line when on the right. When on the left he could perhaps not have as much confidence in his crosses with his left foot, or it could be a directive from the manager. 

The unknown surrounding Justin, and the fact that he now costs 5.0M makes him a less attractive option for my situation, but those who got in at 4.5M may want to hold despite the less attractive situation. Start him more confidently when playing on the right.

Luke Shaw vs Arsenal (A)

Shaw is playing better than he has played in a very long time. I have mentioned the effect of Telles’ arrival before and I maintain the belief that the competition from the young Brazilian, who has not been poor by any stretch. 

Of this group, Shaw has the most chances created (7), the most successful crosses (9), the 2^nd most passes in the final third (64), the 2^nd most penalty area touches (1), and the highest xA (1.12). He also seems to be on corners now from both sides, increasing his appeal and dampening Bruno’s. The two heat maps show us how advanced Shaw is playing (touch heat map), and his ability to get around opposing RBs. 

There are 2 factors that make Shaw a less attractive option for me:

1. Rotation. His injury history is well known and Ole will continue the rotation with Telles in order to keep Shaw playing at his peak and keep him healthy.
2. MUNs defensive stats rank around the average for most defensive statistical categories. Admitting to recency bias, the fact that they conceded 2 to SHU is a big red flag for me.

The Little Prince Pick of the Week – MATT TARGETT

The Targett-Watkins express has been ablaze with Targett serving up 2 FPL assists for Watkins’ 2 goals in the past 2 matches. Targett is Villa’s 4th highest scoring player with 78 points for a mere 4.7M. The only thing that has changed in the past 2 matches is that Grealish has moved back to the left in front of Targett. This move may be opening space for the fullback to have time to look up and find Watkins. 

This is just a speculative theory at this point, however, and Targett’s deep position still limits his upside. While Targett could be a nice value pick, I expect his returns to be largely inconsistent as he is not a featured part of this attack that ultimately runs through Grealish.

All that said, I do love Targett, and Grealish for that matter, this week against SOU. I wrote about SOUs lopsided defense when looking at Auba last week. The same applies to Grealish and Targett this week. No team has conceded fewer chances from their left side than SOU. This should further cement Grealish as a talisman, and Targett as a provider in this match. SOU has also been leaky on their right side as the wingback pushes forward.

One could indeed make the case that SOU is more attacking w/ Valery than they are with KWP, although Valery tends to hug the line while KWP seems to get inside the top corner of the box more. Either way, this should open space for Grealish and Targett. I also expect the DM (Romeu or Diallo) to stick with Grealish, which would make the matchup for Targett even tastier. While perhaps not an along-term option, I do think managers could catch lightning in a bottle with the defender’s nice matchup and increased confidence.

A bit of a quicker analysis on the short week, but I do hope this information is helpful for those of you looking at attacking from the back. Thank you once again for spending your precious moments with me and my thoughts. I’m humbled by how these articles are being received and I have been overjoyed at the engagement they spur. I look forward to chatting about these topics with you all. We will be discussing it with @FPLMariner and @allaboutfpl on the Matchups show live this Friday. I hope you can join us: (14) NET THAT HAUL with FPLMariner – YouTube

Please be well, be safe, and stay connected. 

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20:

All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03

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FPL Lens

FPL Lens, otherwise known as Gabriel, is a B licensed coach and writes #FPLMatchups articles from a coach's perspective. He uses his 25 years of coaching experience to examine teams, players, and situations in the premier league with the aim of gaining some insight for FPL. His methodology begins with the eye test, and he will often use various types of heat maps to illustrate his points. Stats for him are always a good way to verify our experience of the game. He can be found on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/FPLLens

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