This blog is written by @FPLNima (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima writes the weekly transfer tips article for Fantasy Football Hub and you can find more of his work here. Do give him a follow on Twitter here
Gameweek 20 Review
Points: 54 points + Gameweek rank: 1.4m
I was very pleased with Cancelo (17 points) and Raphinha (13 points) who both finally did something spectacular for me since my GW16 Wildcard to BB them in DGW19.
However, in hindsight playing Coufal over Soucek really stings. Most seasons past, I’d have gone for the midfielder over the defender but the DGW19 Soucek stats scared me off. This is now the second time I have benched Soucek for his goals!
Finally, I also rue the day I learnt about Effective Ownership. My gut wanted to go with Cancelo as a captain but I ended up going for the safety of a Bruno Fernandes captain, solely because I had reached my highest overall rank this season and was nervous about losing my gains!
I am happy that I did KDB to Son as my FT last week as I wanted to see more of the Man City midfield. Having watched them again, Gundogan is coming straight into my team as my third City player.
My overall rank increased from 202k to 171k. This is my highest OR so far this season in my hunt for a consecutive Top 10k finish.
Overall Rank
I am now 18 points away from the Top 100k (a personal goal I strive for every season). In summary, I am 5 points closer than I was pre-GW20 (still feeling gutted about captaining Bruno over Cancelo. And not believing that Gundogan would play in as advanced a position, with KDB out)!
I feel confident of achieving this by the end of the season but the all elusive consecutive Top 10k finish is looking difficult to achieve whilst I am still 78 points behind! Perhaps a more realistic stretch target for the season is the Top 50k (39 points behind right now).
Manchester City and Aston Villa are likely to have more than just 1 Double Gameweek each. Spurswill likely have the best fixtures in Double Gameweek 26.
Manchester City are the team I am targetting, due to them being likely to have double fixtures in Gameweeks 24, 26 and 27. They are currently the best defence in the Premier League. In GW24 they could play either Everton or Aston Villa so we should keep an eye out for some news.
It is likely for there to be another four Double Gameweeks but only the one large one remains in Gameweek 26. This will correspond with the Blank Gameweek in 29 due to the teams who qualify for the FA Cup Quarter Finals.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Matchups & Fixture Analysis | Five Key Players Put Under The Lens
FPL GW 21 Team Reveal
Current team with 1FT and £3.1m in the bank
Some thoughts about this plus my revised approach to DGW26 and BGW29
- I have 3 different transfer plans (see below for these – my priority is City, Spurs, Aston Villa and Everton players with my Free Transfers leading up to GW24)
- I was planning on using the second Wildcard in Gameweek 25 once we’ve been given the fixtures for DGW26 and corresponding blanks in BGW 29.
- However, I now intend on using FTs to prepare for FPL DGW26 and BGW29 with my second Wildcard being triggered around GW30/31 to prepare for the final stretch of the season.
- This is a great in-depth article about “How to avoid wildcarding for DGW26”: https://fplconnect.blog/2021/01/27/how-to-avoid-wildcarding-for-dgw26/
- I will aim to have 2 FTs in GW24 and all my moves prior to then are focused on Man City (likely to have 3 DGWs 24, 26, 27) and Tottenham players (will have the best DGW26 fixtures and my TC options).
- I’m still eager to use Triple Captain in Gameweek 26 (on Son or Kane, Spurs will have the two best DGW26 fixtures)
I believe there isn’t a one size fits all answer for the next set of BGWs and DGWs. It will predominantly depend on if you still have your FH, BB, TC and second Wildcard handy.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Differential picks to consider ahead of GW21 Deadline
Captain options for FPL GW 21
I intend on keeping my captain on non-other than Ilkay Gundogan for the GW21 home fixture vs Sheffield United. Manchester City is averaging more shots (17.33), shots in the box (12.33) and big chances (4) than any other team in the Premier League.
It is worth bearing in mind that Sheffield United have tightened up at the back since Gameweek 13 (only Spurs have put more than 2 goals past them in this period). This means Sheffield United are in the Top 6 for defensive stats as we saw when they beat Manchester United in GW20.
For me, this is the best fixture matchup of the entire GW. Gundogan’s new role in the team sees him averaging the most shots, shots in the box, big chances and highest xG.
Fantastic underlying numbers and with 7 goals in the last 8 GWs, it is hard to look past him. My prejudice of only captaining premium attacking players is really being put to the test with CM Gundogan at £5.7m. The FFH Predicted Points Tool has Gundogan at 3rd for GW21 amongst midfielders (4.9 projected points).
Alternative Captain options for FPL GW 21
Before I settled on my Gundogan captaincy, I also considered the following 3 options:
- Salah – after 6 blanks in a row it feels like Liverpool got back into the gears vs Spurs in GW20. I’m hopeful of a resurgence in Salah’s goalscoring but having reviewed his recent performances, I noticed he is acting more as a playmaker at the moment. Mane was getting into the box a lot more than the Egyptian international.
- Son – I was excited by Son vs Brighton but that was before the injury to Kane. I’m not so hot on this matchup anymore as Brighton have been a bogey team of sorts for Spurs recently and also have decent underlying defensive stats.
- Cancelo – I don’t expect West Brom to break down the City defence that has conceded just once in 12 games. Cancelo showed last week that he is spending a lot of time playing in midfield and with KDB injured, he is the creative fulcrum of the City team. I’m avoiding this one even though he showed he can haul (17 points in GW20) solely due to the 4 GWs in 2 weeks and my nervousness about possible rotation.
Transfers Options for FPL GW 21 (1 free transfer) £3.1m ITB
Updated Watchlist for FPL GW 21:
(Bold names are new this week)
I will maintain an updated Watchlist in this section. I have identified players that I want to buy for my own team over the next 5 GWs. I will also be listing which players are on the chopping blocks in favour of these players on the watchlist.
Goalkeepers: Martinez, Areola
Out-list: Johnstone, McCarthy
Defenders: Chilwell, Shaw, Mitchell, Digne, Rudiger.
Out-list: Robertson
Midfielders: Grealish, Barnes, Maddison, Saka
Out-list: Soucek, Raphinha, Salah
Forwards: Calvert-Lewin, Watkins, Werner, Lacazette
Out-list: Rodrigo
Players I’ve removed from my Watchlist:
Shaw – rotation risk
Kane – injured
Son – I bought him for KDB last week
Gundogan – I am buying him for one of Soucek/Raphinha this week
These are the 3 options I am going to decide between tomorrow:
- Soucek to Gundogan (most likely move)
- Raphinha to Gundogan (less likely as Leeds can have a DGW26 and also fixture in BGW29 – which would help me navigate this next period without using my WC2)
- Soucek to Gundogan and Rodrigo to Calvert–Lewin/Watkins for a -4 point hit (I may just wait till GW22 to sell Rodrigo for one of DCL/Watkins instead of taking a hit this week)
I am most likely to go with option #1 or #3.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Differential picks to consider ahead of GW21 Deadline
*Pre-Deadline Changes to my FPL Team*
I may make some late changes nearer the deadline but won’t have time to update the article. As such I have included some ideas of what these changes may be in the article above so that you can see the thinking behind my decision-making process.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts & discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 21 deadline at 11:00 GMT on Saturday 30th January.
If you are looking to follow more of my content or interact on all things FPL, follow me on Twitter. You can also check out the Transfer Trends article for GW21 on FFH here (reviewing Bamford > DCL transfers this week):
Wishing you all Good luck with FPL GW21!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 21:
FPL GW21 Differential picks to consider ahead of GW21 Deadline
FPL GW21 Matchups & Fixture Analysis | Five Key Players Put Under The Lens Ahead Of GW21
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
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Nima Kafai
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