GW16 is done and dusted with two games being postponed due to COVID-19 causing mayhem amongst FPL managers with popular FPL assets Son, Kane, KDB, DCL all missing out of action. But we do have to move on from GW16 and start planning for GW17 which is fast approaching us. With BGW18 and DGW19 fast approaching us now is the perfect time to look at some differentials het them in and gain ranks. In this blog, we look at the top FPL GW17 Differential picks to consider ahead of the deadline.
Note: All player ownership & price are from the data at the time of writing, subject to change as we move close to the FPL GW17 deadline
FPL GW17 Differential picks
Anthony Martial vs Aston Villa(H), £8.7 TSB: 4.2%
Martial was rested for the GW16 fixture against Wolves and he should be back in the starting line up against Villa in FPL GW17. Before GW16 in which he was rested, Martial was closely getting back to his best. Between GW13-GW15, Martial has the most big chances(4), 2nd best xG(2.14), 2nd most shots on target(6), Best xA(2.03), Most big chances created(4), Best xPts(23.8) among forwards. Martial is that kind of player who is difficult to stop when he gets going. Double Gameweek in GW19 is an added bonus to bring him Martial in!
His teammate Rashford(8.6% TSB) is also a good differential shout. 5 goals(1st), xG-3.16(3rd), 6 big chances(Joint 1st) from GW11- GW16(among midfielders) rises a good case for him.
Further Read: FPL BGW18 & DGW19 Planner|Chips & Strategies
Pedro Neto vs Brighton(A), £6.0 TSB: 13.8%
Neto is slightly above the ownership criteria of 10% TSB which we have for differentials. But he surely deserves a mention with the performances he is putting and is one of the best value for money midfielders in the game. Neto is involved in more Premier League goals(8) than any other Wolves player this season. He has 2 goals, 2 assists, 37 points from the last 7 games averaging 5.28 points per game. He is also in action in Blank Gameweek 18 and a favorable home game against West Brom in FPL GW19.
Numbers to back-up Neto for FPL GW17:
- Up against Brighton at Amex stadium where they have only one win in the whole year(2020).
- Most points among midfielders and second-most points(75) overall for any player under 6.0 this season– Only behind Zouma(77).
- Most points per million(12.70) among midfielders this season.
- Pedro Neto has been directly involved in 7 goals in 15 PL games this season.
Further Read: FPL BGW18 & DGW19 Planner|Chips & Strategies
Mane vs Southampton, £11.9 TSB: 8.1%
Believe it or not, Sadio Mane‘s attacking numbers this season are extremely similar to that of Mo Salah. The below stats show how much he has been underperforming this season. Mane has the third best nPxG/90+xA/90(0.68) in the league this season– Only behind KDB and Bamford. Mane has been underperforming his xG for this season and should improve his goal-scoring return soon. Liverpool have very good fixtures coming up plus they have a double GW coming up in Gameweek 19. Now is the perfect time to have both Salah and Mane on our FPL teams.
Mane vs Salah this season: Shots on goal: 44 vs 52 Shots on target: 20 vs 26 Shots inside box: 36 vs 38 Big chances: 11 vs 13 xG: 7.04 vs 10.05 Goals: 6 vs 13 Key passes:21 vs 24 Big chances created:3 vs 6 xA:3.34 vs 4.84 Assists:5 vs 4 Points: 81 vs 123 Note: Mane played 19 mins less compared to Salah
Liverpool will look to bounce back after two successive draws and Southampton could be the best game who have been dealt a blow with towering center back Vestergaard out for some time. Mane will be hoping to get a goal or two against his old employers and build towards DGW19.
Further Read: FPL BGW18 & DGW19 Planner|Chips & Strategies
Chris Wood vs Fulham, £6.2 TSB: 1.6%
Chris Wood has the numbers to back him up as the differential striker for FPL GW17. He has just 2 goals from the past 8 games in which he has under performed his numbers- xG of 4.61 and 10 big chances! He has certainly fallen behind the budget strikers- DCL, Bamford, Watkins, Adams this season. But this is the right time for to be on that list as the ultra-differential factor(Just 1.6% TSB) in the double game week. Burnley have also found form getting 11 points from the last 6 games, compared to just 5 points from the first 9 games.
Wood in numbers:
- Most big chances(10) for any player in the league between GW9-GW16- More than Salah, Vardy, Kane and everyone else!
- Third best xG(4.61) in the league from GW9- GW16- Only behind Bamford(4.73) and El Ghazi(4.92)
Further Read: FPL BGW18 & DGW19 Planner|Chips & Strategies
Bellerin vs West Brom, £5.1 TSB: 5.4%
It would be a surprise to see an Arsenal defender on this list. But they have surely improved their over the past few weeks to get those 2 wins from the last 2 games. Bellerin could be a cheeky differential in the upcoming weeks with favorable fixtures- West Brom, Crystal Palace, Newcastle in the next three games who rank 20th, 18th and 15th for xG this season.
These three games should serve as an opening to get their season back on track. Perhaps, Bellerin could even fancy an attacking return against the worst defensive team in the league, West Brom who have the worst xGC- 32.62(20th), conceded 42 big chances(19th), 35 goals(20th) this season.
Key stat:
Arsenal’s improved defense- Conceded just 12 big chances(5th least), xGC-9.09(4th least), xCS- 2.66(3rd best) from GW9- GW16.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL for FPL Managers ahead of FPL GW17 Deadline:
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL GW15 ~ GW19 Fixture Analysis |Best & Worst Fixtures Over The Period
FPL BGW18 & DGW19 Planner|Chips & Strategies
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Srinivasan S
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