Hey hoomans, FPL Pup here. It is a pleasure to be writing my first article for allaboutfpl.com. If you have seen me on Twitter, you will know I love a good stat as much as a belly rub. But another way I play the game is by focussing on fixtures. My thinking on this is quite simple, when facing poor teams you have a higher probability of clean sheets and scoring multiple goals – simples. So I use fixtures as a comfort blanket for my team and it is always my starting point when I look at any transfer targets. So in this article, I will look ahead to who has the best and worst fixtures up to and including FPL GW19. To try and determine which players we should be considering.
Fixture Analysis for the period from FPL GW15 to FPL GW19
Spurs
Fixtures: Wol, FUL, LEE, Avl, Shu
*All caps denotes home game
The irony. I sold Son and Kane due to their fixture swing to try make some gains given their tough fixtures and they still killed it. Now I have to talk about them as having the best fixtures now after making no gain at all.
Another factor I moved off these is that since West Ham came back from 3-0 down to draw with Spurs, Jose has tightened things up greatly, at the expense of the free flowing attack. But what makes Son and Kane so good is their goal involvement records. Son has been involved in 62% of their goals, while Kane has been involved in 76%. Putting them both top in the midfield and striker departments.
Many will have one, if not both of these players. But for those who took a punt like me, you will have to get one back ahead of this fixture run. Where the play Wolves who have lost their stability and leaky Leeds side – and they are the tough fixtures!
So which one? Well surprisingly, Son has more big chances (12) compared to Kane this season (10). While Kane is the better creator, creating 9 big chances to Son’s 5. Although the Korean has created more small chances, just – 26 to Kane’s 23. I see little between them, so I would just go for what move fit easiest in your squad. But if you want one for captaincy it is Kane for me – penalties always help!
Liverpool
Fixtures: WBA, new, sou, – , MUN & BUR
They beat Palace 7-0 and now face two weaker teams in West Brom and Newcastle. Things could get messy here! Here you have a team who are flying and have great fixtures.
Firstly, and obviously, Salah is essential. He played only 30mins against Palace yet still managed 2 goals (from 2 shots) and an assist, from his 1 big chance created. He may have contracted Covid-19 over the international break and missed one match. But in the 5 games since he has scored 5 times and assisted 3 times. Giving him 51 points in this time span, so 10 points per game on average. You have to have him, particularly with the fixtures and double gameweek.
Mane is also brilliant, but I don’t think you get value with your buck with him if you have Salah. But if you are fed up with De Bruyne he is a good option. A cheeky differential is Firmino, just 3.9% owned. He has been brilliant for the last 2 games. Scoring the winner against Spurs he then added 2 more against Palace. He is playing fantastically well and is starting to shake his tag as an FPL trap.
Interest in Liverpool’s defence is also reigniting, with Robertson and TAA both getting an assist and clean sheet. If you could squeeze one of them into your team I reckon that’s a good move. But I wouldn’t be bending over backwards to do it. They are still a little suspect at the back so I am still unsure of their clean sheet potential. Van Dijk will always be a huge miss, but they should be able to sneak a few clean sheets give the quality of their opposition.
Leeds United
Fixtures: BUR, WBA, tot, – , BHA & SOU
I love Leeds fantasy wise. Bielsa gives them the freedom to play with a free flowing attacking style, regardless of the consequences. They may have lost 6-2 to Manchester Utd but they looked like they could still score right to the very death. And as they are newly promoted, they have a wide array of cheap players for us to choose from. Getting back to the topic – look at them fixtures! I think they have the best DGW19 fixtures. With Burnley and West Brom in the lead up to this, yum!
Bamford is a must for me. Looking at forwards, only Vardy (takes to penalties) and DCL can better his xG of 3.78 over the last 6 game weeks. He has had 6 big chances over this time, while no other striker can beat his 23 shots and 21 shots in the box. If you are looking for something different, a man on my radar is Rodrigo, once he is assured of starts. Again looking at the last 6 game weeks, from 304mins (Bamford played 517mins) he has managed 25 penalty box touches, 12 shots, 10 in the box but only 1 big chance. But he offers an abundance of creativity too, creating 10 chances to Bamford’s 3. With 3 of his being big chances, while Bamford has managed none.
Looking at midfield it is hard to pin down who is the best option. Raphina is passing the eye test, but only has 1 goal and 2 assists for the season. I like Harrison. Since the start of last season, he has more league assists for Leeds than any other player (12). He has created 13 chances in the last 6 game weeks. Klich tends to get overlooked with people thinking he just offers penalties. However, he matches Harrison’s 13 chances created the last 6 game weeks and 2 of his were big chances, while Harrison didn’t create any big chances. He has 4 assists for the season already and we can expect a few more with these fixtures.
Defensively, well, invest for the attacking threat – as clean sheets will be few and far between!
So Long, Farewell!
Aston Villa
Fixtures: CRY, che, mun, TOT, EVE
Is it time to dump our Aston Villa assets? Of course Crystal Palace is a good fixture and if you don’t want to use your bench boost in GW18 you should hold them. But after their game against Palace, they have a mighty tough run. Goals and clean sheets will be very hard to come by.
Newcastle United
Fixtures from FPL GW15 to FPL GW19: mci, LIV, LEI, shu, ars
If you have Wilson you were blessed this week getting 9 points. Newcastle offered nothing and he was awarded a penalty for a clear dive, with the touch even coming outside the box. Sell and don’t invest.
Crystal Palace
Fixtures: avl, LEI, SHU, ars, mci
Like Villa, you may keep your assets for the blank GW18 before shipping them on for the double. It is not like Arsenal away is a tough fixture anymore. Zaha is also a good pick for the Sheffield Utd game. So more of a hold, before a goodbye. Although, I would sell any of their defensive assets after that thumping. Unlike their usual selves, they have just kept 1 clean sheet all season.
Do follow FPL Pup on Twitter and he’ll be back soon analyzing the next set of four fixtures on allaboutfpl.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL for FPL Managers ahead of FPL GW14 Deadline:
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
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