This FPL GW 31 blog is written by AK. He is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k twice with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. AK is also ranked number 7 in the all-time list of best FPL managers in India. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
Previous Gameweek’s Review
FPL GW 31 Captaincy poll
The “Double or Nothing” Model had incredible success in picking the ideal captaincy for Gameweek 30. On its debut on AllABOUTFPL the Model correctly predicted Harry Kane as the most ideal Captaincy option, and the Englishman duly delivered with 2 goals and maximum bonus points.
The competitors were predicted to be some way off Kane and rightly so, as none of the competitors came anywhere close to Kane’s tally of 13, with Bruno Fernandes coming in at second, with a mere 5-points return.
FPL GW 31 Captaincy Picks:
Wisdom Of the Crowd
[socialpoll id=”2738478″]
We are back for GW31 and Mo Salah clearly leads our Captaincy Poll with 43% of votes. The Egyptian is followed by Kevin DeBruyne (21%) and teammate Diogo Jota (13%). Last week’s pick Harry Kane comes in just outside the Podium with 11% of the votes, as Bruno Fernandes (4%) barely sneaks into the top 5 picks for this week.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates:
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) per 90 | Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 11 | 5 | 5 | 0.41 | 5.26 | 2 |
| De Bruyne | 9 | 18 | 2 | 0.31 | 3.20 | 4 |
| Jota | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 2.61 | 4 |
| Kane | 15 | 6 | 8 | 0.97 | 1.99 | 1 |
| Bruno | 4 | 18 | 4 | 0.41 | 1.47 | 2 |
Harry Kane comes out on top again this week in Individual Underlying Numbers. He beats his competition in every factor included here, with an impressive xG per 90* of 0.97, which is more than double of the next best candidates, Salah and Bruno Fernandes (0.41 each), while Kevin DeBruyne and Diogo Jota have also been posting similar xG per 90 of 0.31.
Harry Kane has also been afforded 15 shots inside the box in the last 6, 8 of those being Big Chances.
Mo Salah comes in behind with 11 Shots Inside the Box and 5 Big Chances. And although Bruno Fernandes has had only 4 shots Inside the Box in the last 6 matches, all 4 of these were big chances. The Penalties-Factor is very strong for the Portuguese, having had 2 penalties in the last 6 matches, thus explaining the overstated xG per 90.
Kevin DeBruyne comes in with 9 Shots Inside the Box and 2 Big Chances, but he has created the most chances of the lot, with 18 chances created to his name.
Diogo Jota’s numbers unsurprisingly are low, considering he has played less than 350 minutes in his last 6 games. With 6 shots Inside the box and 2 Big Chances, Jota comes in at par with DeBruyne, due to his xG per 90 being the same.
*I have used xG per 90 as Jota has not started in all of his last 6 matches, which would skew the stats against him in totality.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard- Best Combinations, Tips, And Team Reveal
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 53 | 16 | 8.43 | 3 |
| Manchester City (KdB) | 64 | 19 | 11.36 | 1 |
| Liverpool (Jota) | 53 | 16 | 8.43 | 3 |
| Tottenham (Kane) | 40 | 16 | 11.22 | 2 |
| Manchester United (Bruno) | 42 | 11 | 7.84 | 5 |
Every week, it’s likely to be the Armband candidate playing for Manchester City, that will be getting the top rank in this metric. Kevin DeBruyne’s team is the best of the lot, with 64 Shots Inside the Box, 19 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 11.36.
However, it’s closer than ever this week, as Harry Kane’s Tottenham take the second spot just behind the League leaders. Even though their Shots inside the Box (40) is the lowest of all teams involved, their xG of 11.22 is the second-highest of all teams, pretty much confirming that Mourinho’s side are taking fewer shots, but the shots usually are of high quality.
Diogo Jota and Mo Salah’s team Liverpool come in at Third. 53 Shots Inside the Box and 16 Big Chances are numbers that not only match Tottenham’s but also beat them, however, they seem to be struggling with an xG of 8.43, which is some way behind what the North Londoners have posted in the same period.
Bruno Fernandes’ Manchester United come in at the bottom again, managing 42 Shots Inside The Box, 11 Big Chances, and an xG of 7.84, which is the lowest of the teams analysed here.
Further Read: FPL GW 31 – Chip Strategy, Tips, And Team Reveal | FPLNima
Fixture Difficulty:
| (C)andidate | Shots Conceded Inside The Box | Big Chances Conceded | Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Aston Villa (vs Salah) | 41 | 10 | 7.65 | 2 |
| Leeds United (vs KdB) | 45 | 9 | 7.15 | 4 |
| Aston Villa (vs Jota) | 41 | 10 | 7.65 | 2 |
| Manchester United (vs Kane) | 40 | 6 | 5.41 | 5 |
| Tottenham (vs Bruno) | 43 | 11 | 8.06 | 1 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
The Fixture Difficulty Metric is very close this week and there are no clear winners or losers.
Bruno’s opponents Tottenham seem to be having the worst numbers defensively. With 43 Shots Conceded Inside the Box, they have also conceded 11 Big Chances and have accumulated an xG Conceded of 8.06 in the last 6 Matches, worst of all teams in consideration here.
Surprisingly, there is very little to separate between Liverpool’s (Salah and Jota) and Manchester City’s (DeBruyne) opponents Aston Villa and Leeds United respectively.
Their numbers are very similar. On the one Hand, Villa have conceded 41 Shots Inside the Box, 10 Big Chances, and an xGC of 7.65, while on the other hand, Leeds United have conceded 45 Shots Inside the Box, 9 Big Chances, and an xGC of 7.15.
The toughest fixture, however, is for Harry Kane. Although Manchester United have conceded 40 Shots Inside the Box, they have only conceded 6 Big Chances and have an xGC of just 5.41 from their last 6 games.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider
Projections Rank
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns GW30 (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 82% | 6.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| De Bruyne | 77% | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Jota | 57% | 4.7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Kane | 64% | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Bruno | 50% | 4.3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
The popular week of the week, Mo Salah has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 82%, which is very impressive and it is safe to expect him to be involved in goals, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 6.3, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
Kevin De Bruyne comes in very close to the Egyptian when it comes to Anytime Returns Projections at 77%. He should be involved in goals as well, provided he starts, and his Points Projections are also second highest, at 5.4.
Harry Kane comes in at 3rd for both the factors ahead of Diogo Jota, with his Anytime Returns Projections standing at 64% to Jota’s 57%, implying that he is a safer Captaincy option, and also just about edges Jota in Points Projections, with Kane at 4.9 to Jota’s 4.7, making him just a little more likely to be more explosive, the chances of which are very low.
Finally, to round this metric up, Bruno comes in last in both the factors. With his Anytime Returns Projections at 50%, and Projected Points at 4.3, making him the least safe and also the least explosive option of all the Candidates.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard- Best Combinations, Tips, And Team Reveal
Conclusion – Final Rank for captaincy in FPL GW 31
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Mo Salah | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Kevin DeBruyne | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| Diogo Jota | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| Harry Kane | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor. The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Mo Salah comes out to be our pick of the week, with a CRF of 8, while Kevin DeBruyne* and Harry Kane come in behind Salah with a CRF of 11.
Diogo Jota and Bruno Fernandes come joint-last in our model, with both the Portuguese Internationals having a CRF of 13 each.
*We have assumed here that Kevin DeBruyne will start the game. However, Pep Roulette could easily hit us and he may feature from the bench, or not feature at all. It’s not too easy to guess when it comes to Pep!
Any Comments, Constructive Criticism, Feedback, And/Or Suggestions to improve the Model are welcome here in the Comments Section, or on Twitter.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 31:
FPL GW31 Wildcard- Best Combinations, Tips, And Team Reveal
FPL GW 31 – Chip Strategy, Tips, And Team Reveal | FPLNima
FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider
Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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