Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks & Metrics blog. A double gameweek for four teams means managers will look to captain doublers this week. The popular captaincy options this week include Marmoush, Saka, De Bruyne, and Rogers. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics!
This season the metrics has a 23/32 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 + 18 + 32 + 14 + 32 + 6 + 16 + 58 + 40 + 28 + 12 + 30 + 14 + 6 + 4 + 22 = 626 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW33 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW33 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Marmoush tops the captaincy poll this week ahead of games against Everton(A) and Aston Villa(H). Saka is 2nd in the captaincy poll with 34% of votes and will face Ipswich(A), Crystal Palace(H). Salah, despite not doubling in GW33, is 3rd in the captaincy poll with 8% of the votes, with xMins of most double gameweek captain options not looking great Salah is definitely not a bad option, especially against Leicester City at home. The top five in the captaincy poll is completed by De Bruyne and Rogers.
Further Read: Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 33 Captain picks
The Egyptian king tops the table with an xG of 2.91 in the last six games, including 5 big chances, which is the highest amongst the five players. He’s also created 18 chances for his teammates, three chances every game.
Another Egyptian, Marmoush, is 3rd in the table with an xG of 2.79 in the last six games and is 2nd for big chances(4). He’s also had 10 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Saka is 3rd with an xG of 1.46, 6 goal attempts in the box, 5 chances created, and just 1 big chance in the last six games. Do note that Saka has had only 3 starts in the last six games, and he has played only 300 minutes, which has naturally reduced his numbers.
Morgan Rogers, who has started in all Premier League games he’s been available for selection, is fourth with an xG of 1.18 and has had three big chances in the last six games.
De Bruyne is only 5th in the table with an xG of 0.66 in the last six games. Like Saka, KDB’s minutes in the last six games has been limited, he has started only 3 games in the last six and has only played 287 minutes.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Aston Villa take the first spot with an xG of 11.33 in the last six games and have had 59 shots inside the box and 19 big chances during the period.
Liverpool are second with 11.27 xG over the last six games, they have also had 70 goal attempts in the box and 17 big chances.
Man City rank 3rd for xG amongst the five teams, registering 11.27 xG in the six games. They have also had a healthy 53 shots inside the box and a whopping 23 big chances.
Arsenal are last on the table with an xG of 8.46, 60 shots inside the box & 8 big chances.
Further Read: Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW33
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal are first with a 97.8% odds of at least 1 goal and 59.8% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW33 vs Ipswich(A) and Crystal Palace(H)
Man City are 2nd with a 94.1% odds of scoring at least one goal and 53.3% odds of scoring odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW33 vs Everton(A) and Aston Villa(H).
Liverpool are 4th with 91% odds of scoring at least one goal and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals, which is very impressive considering the fact that they’re playing only once this week.
Two tough fixtures mean Aston Villa are last with 88.4% odds of at least 1 goal and 36.3% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL DGW33.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Saka is first for projections this week with 87% anytime returns & a 11.7 points projection in FPL DGW33. Saka’s predicted minutes is 136 on FFHUB’s point prediction tool.
Marmoush is second this week with 79% anytime returns & a 10.4 points projection in FPL DGW33. KDB is also second with 83% anytime returns & a 10.0. points projection. The FFHUB points prediction model is predicting Marmoush to play 168 minutes and KDB to play 134 minutes in DGW33.
Salah, meanwhile, is only 4th as he’s not doubling and has a 68% anytime returns & an 8.1 points projection in GW33 against Leicester City at home.
Rogers is last with 60% odds of scoring at least one goal and a points prediction of 6.1. He’s predicted to play 176 minutes in DGW33, the highest predicted xMins amongst the five players.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 33 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Marmoush tops the FPL Gameweek 33 captaincy metrics this week with a CRF of 9. Saka is 2nd with a CRF of 10, Mo Salah is 3rd despite not doubling in GW33 with a CRF of 11. KDB is 4th with a CRF of 12, Rogers is last with a CRF of 15. It’s a very tight captaincy metrics this week, with a CRF of only one separating the top four options.
Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW33:
2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
FPL Gameweek 33 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW33 Tips – Players to Target on Bench Boost, Best Transfers & More
FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Sleeper GW33 Draft Fantasy- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW33 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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