Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores where 3 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points.

• Kieran Trippier – 1 Assist, 1 Clean Sheet, 1 Bonus – 12 Points
• Harvey Barnes – 3 Goals, 1 Assist, 4 Bonus – 27 Points
• Conor Bradley – 1 Clean Sheet, 3 Bonus – 9 Points

That makes it 87/192 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.

In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Thursday 17^th April, 2025. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Kevin De Bruyne(Manchester City) vs EVE(A), AVL(H) – £9.3 Midfielder – 5.2 % TSB

• With Foden not fully fit, KDB is playing in his favored position of Support Striker now. He himself has confirmed that he is fully fit and pain free and has played 87 & 90 minutes in the last 2 Gameweeks. He is the main creator for City and is also on all set pieces and free kicks. Just check his brilliant Free kick goal from last Gameweek. He is also a Bonus Point monster.
• KDB has only started 14 Games this season and has 12 attacking returns (3 Goals and 9 Assists). He also has good stats with 14 Shots on Target, 18 Shots in the Box and 5 Big Chances. He has also created 13 Big Chances and played 44 key passes for his team-mates.
• KDB showed his all round potential in the last game where he created 3 chances, created 2 Big Chances, had 6 Shots and had 2 Big Chances. KDB ranked 1^st for all of these metrics in that match. City will also face Aston Villa in the Double Gameweek a team which has the 4^th worst xGC in the League (only better than the Promoted sides), which should mean more chances for City to rack up a big score at home)

Aston Villa Away defensive Rank:

• xGC- 17th
• Big Chances Conceded- 15th
• Goals Conceded- 16th

Further Read: FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Jarrod Bowen(West Ham) vs SOU(H) – £7.5 Midfielder – 7.3 % TSB

• Bowen has been having an underwhelming season so far but has still scored 8 Goals and got 8 Assists. He is West Ham’s talisman and leads his team-mates for Big Chances (12), Shots (72) and xGI (12.7), even though he has missed 4 matches of the season through injury. Also, his tally of 8 Shots in the Box over the last 4 Gameweeks can only be bettered by 2 other Midfielders.
• Southampton are the worst team in the League defensively. They have the worst home xGC by a distance and have already conceded 40 at home. They are bottom for all defensive metrics such as Shots on Target conceded, Shots in the Box conceded, Big Chances conceded, xGC and they have also conceded the most Goals this season. They have allowed 31 more Big Chances than any other teams in the League.
• Southampton also concede most of their Big chances through the center of the pitch. They’re also the worst in the league at defending set-pieces. Bowen is one of their main threats in the air, despite his height. Although traditionally a right forward, Potter has been playing him centrally lately, which should favour him in this game. Southampton have also conceded the most penalties in the League (9) and Bowen will be the man to take them. Lets just hope he is better at them than Marco Asensio.

Further Read: FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

Marcus Rashford(Aston Villa) vs NEW(H), MCI(A) – £6.7 Midfielder – 7.5 % TSB

• Rashford has currently established himself in the Starting 11 of Aston Villa and id currently playing as the Center Forward for Villa, keeping Ollie Watkins out of the team.  Rashford has also been name-checked by Emery as the 1^st Choice Penalty taker. Villa always tend to do well at Villa Park, scoring lots of Goals and they have only lost 1 Game this season at home. City’s defence is not as water-tight as it used to be in previous seasons and Rashford does like playing against City.

Emery on the Penalty situation:

Q. Will Asensio take the next penalty you get?
“Calm. We have our penalty shooter and the first one is Marcus Rashford. The second one is Asensio. Third ones are Tielemans, McGinn and Watkins. They are responsible when penalties are coming. We have to accept it and decide for the next match.

Q. Were you annoyed that Asensio took the second penalty as well?
“I think it is normal that his challenge is to get the second one after the first one. It is clear which penalty shooter is first.”

• Rashford has 5 Goals and 4 Assists this season despite only starting 15 Games this season. His stats are decent with 14 Shots on Target, 19 Shots in the Box and 6 Big Chances. Rashford has also created 8 Big Chances and 26 key passes for his team-mates. Rashford has a goal involvement of 1.00 per 90 which is one of the best in the League since his move to Aston Villa.

Top Players for Expected Goal Involvement/90 since Rashford Villa debut: (Minimum 350 minutes)

• Asensio- 1.0 (Includes 2 penalties)
• Joao Pedro- 0.9
• Evanilson- 0.9
• Rashford– 0.9
• Haaland- 0.8

Further Read: Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season

Mikel Merino(Arsenal) vs IPS(A), CRY(H) – £6.1 Midfielder – 3.5 % TSB

• A Midfielder playing up top for Arsenal going on a good run in the final few Gameweeks. Sounds familiar? What Havertz did last season, Merino is doing this season in a calmer approah. Merino has 4 Goals since his move up top. Since Gameweek 27, Merino has 10 Shots in the box which is a decent number for a Central Midfielder playing as a Makeshift striker.
• Arsenal will face 2 sides who are defensively unstable at the moment. Palace conceded 10 Goals in Gameweek 32 and look unsettled at the back. As for Ipswich they concede an average of 2 Goals per game and concede more at home. Ipswich have also conceded the 2^nd most Big Chances and Shots on Target in the League and the 3^rd most xGC and the 3^rd most Goals.
• From a matchup point of view, both Palace and Ipswich concede concede a high volume of big chances, particularly from their centre and right. If Merino starts both games, he will definitely get some good chances to add to his 6 Goals this season.

Top Midfielders(<£7.5) for FPL Points/90 since Merino started playing as a Striker: (GW25)

• Barnes- 9.00
• Johnson- 7.94
• Asensio- 7.77
• Murphy- 7.72
• Merino- 6.56
• Elanga- 6.38

Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis

Ruben Dias(Manchester City) vs EVE(A), AVL(H) – £5.4 Defender –  3.2 % TSB

• Dias is the other nailed Man City defender besides Gvardiol and has started the last 6 Games for City and played 90 minutes. City will face Everton and Aston Villa who are ranked in the Bottom 10 for attacking metrics such as Shots, Shots on Target, Shots in the Box, XG, Big Chances and Goals scored.
• City have some enticing fixtures after the Double Gameweek with matches against Wolves, Southampton which should increase their chances of getting more clean sheets. Dias usually does score from set pieces every season and has not scored so far this season. Who knows, he may get one of those bullet headers in this Double Gameweek. Let’s hope so!!

Note: There is also possibility for another DGW for Manchester City in GW36 if they reach the FA Cup finals.

Further Read: FPL GW33 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL GW33 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Jakub Kiwior(Arsenal) vs IPS(A), CRY(H) – £4.8 Defender – 0.9 % TSB

• Arsenal boast the best defence in the League. They have a Decent Double in Gameweek 33. Arsenal have conceded the fewest Big Chances, xGC too and have kept 11 Clean Sheets this season. They have conceded the fewest Shots, Shots on Target and Shots in the Box. They are a well oiled Clean Sheet machine.
• Since Gabriel’s injury, Kiwior has started all the matches in all competitions and has performed brilliantly. Even with Timber returning, Kiwior will continue to keep starting at Center half and presents a Cheap route into Arsenal’s backline for not only Gameweek 33 but the rest of the season.

That’s it for Gameweek 33. We will be back with 6 More Differentials next Gameweek where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 33.

Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW33:

2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
FPL Gameweek 33 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW33 Tips – Players to Target on Bench Boost, Best Transfers & More
FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Sleeper GW33 Draft Fantasy- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW33 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 33 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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