FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW33 Scout Picks blog! Only 6 GWs to go, the end is well and truly in sight, and this one’s a special one – another Double Gameweek. That’s right, back-to-back double GWs for Palace, with Villa, City and Arsenal also all doubling in FPL GW33. DGW32 was a bit underwhelming, with Palace assets in particular letting us down, but we’re hopeful that DGW33 will be different, and that we can profit by picking some excellent assets that double!

Another dub for the Scout Picks team in GW32 takes us 6 points clear (18.5-12.5) of the Official FPL Scout going into FPL GW33 as we edge closer to a victory for the 24/25 FPL season. With 6 GWs to go it is now only possible for the Official FPL team to match our total of 18.5, though we will not rest on our laurels, let’s extend the gap this week!

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26	GW27	GW28	GW29	GW30	GW31	GW32	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	63	51	95	65	73	71	77	49	78	113	92	78	69	70	70	48	55	72	18.5
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	97	66	78	46	89	59	82	68	72	59	61	121	86	80	72	58	80	37	55	69	12.5

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW33!

FPL GW33 Fixtures

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW33 Scout Picks

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Raya‘s (5.5m) between the sticks for us for GW33, and he has a tough act to follow – with Martinez securing a huge 6 pointer in FPL GW32! Arsenal’s ‘keeper has had a mixed bag of performances of late, securing a CS against Madrid in the champions league last week and helping his side to a 5-1 victory on aggregate to secure their place in the semi-finals of Europe’s most prestigious competition!

In the league on the other hand, Raya has delivered back-to-back-to-back 2 pointers, conceding a goal in all of his last 3 league games. His last CS came against Chelsea in FPL GW29, but we’re confident that, with 2 chances to perform this GW, he’ll be able to return some big points for us in FPL GW33!

Arsenal face Ipswich and Palace in FPL GW33, and boast perhaps the kindest DGW fixtures of any team. Despite Ipswich scoring twice in their most recent league game, against Chelsea in FPL GW32, they remain 3rd from bottom for both goals scored and xG in the division. To be fair to the tractor boys, they have scored in all of their last 4 games in the league, but Arsenal are a much more solid defensive unit compared to the recent opposition they’ve had to face. In the Gunners’ second fixture of the double, they face Palace, who are in a bit of a rut at the moment following back-to-back 5-2 and 5-0 thrashings from City and Newcastle respectively…

With the kindest DGW fixtures and in high spirits thanks to their champions league triumphs, we’re backing Raya to deliver for us in FPL GW33!

Further Read: FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Defenders

Three more Double GW players make up our backline for FPL GW33, with the returning Munoz (5.3m) joined by Konsa (4.4m) and Saliba (6.5m)…

Let’s start with Saliba. Everything I wrote about Raya applies here – high spirits, best DGW fixtures, decent recent defensive numbers, great season long defensive record, but the frenchman also has the added bonus of being a goal threat from set-pieces!

In the absence of Gabriel (who is out for the season due to injury), Saliba is one of Arsenal’s chief threats from set pieces. This is not just some kind of prediction either, as we saw a similar thing play out earlier this season when Gabriel was injured for a couple of weeks. Gabriel went of injured in GW13 against West Ham, and the subsequent GW against Manchester United Saliba scored from a corner and put up a ridiculous xG – without Gabriel, Saliba is much more of a threat, and a much better FPL option! While Kiwior is a great differential (and a lot cheaper!), he will not be as much of a target from set-pieces, making Saliba the obvious choice for this DGW!

Next up is Konsa, who scored mid-week for Villa in their thrilling 3-2 victory against PSG! Villa were phenomenal in that second half against the Parisian side, but failed to get over the line, requiring another goal to take the game to extra time and at least two to secure the victory. Nonetheless they should be proud of themselves – they put in a decent shift, and gave it much more of a go than Liverpool did! Konsa is Villa’s most nailed defender, with Emery choosing to rotate almost all of the back 4 in recent games, with Mings, Cash, Digne, Maatson, Disasi, Torres and Garcia all switching in and out.

The Villains go up against Newcastle in their first match of the double, then subsequently face Man City in their second. This is by no means an easy DGW for Emery’s side, but with the form they’re in, you’d back them to get something out of one, if not both games! Villa have won all 4 of their last premier league matches, and have kept clean sheets in 3 of them! They have one of the best defensive records in recent times, only conceding one goal since the start of March. This week will be tricky, with both City and Newcastle in great form, but we’re hoping that Konsa can secure something for the Scout Selection Side in FPL GW33!

Finally we have Munoz. The Palace defender let us down in FPL GW32, ending the GW on a disappointing -1 points. That being said, things could’ve been very different for the Columbian, who created 2 chances across the two fixtures! He also should’ve scored against Newcastle, missing from close range in Palace’s second fixture of DGW32, and could’ve had an assist in the first, putting the ball on a plate for Eze early on in the first half only for the Englishman to wander into an offside position before putting the ball in the net… He still has some of the best attacking numbers of any defender in FPL and has two opportunities this GW to get some attacking returns and make up for his disastrous points total FPL GW32!

Further Read: FPL GW33 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Midfielders

This week we’ve gone for a 5 man midfield of Salah (13.8), Eze (6.9m), Rogers (5.6m), KDB (9.3m) and Sarr (5.8m)…

Salah finally got an attacking return in FPL GW32, after going 2 GWs without one and almost sending both the FPL community and Liverpool fans into meltdown… With a new contract signed and the league pretty much wrapped up, the Egyptian has the freedom to play without much pressure for the rest of the season.

As predicted, Bradley’s reintroduction to the team meant that Salah was allowed much more space and time on the ball – he caused Scarles (West Ham’s LB) problems all game, and really should’ve come away with more than just the single assist. Despite only playing once in FPL GW33, we’re backing Salah to get some big points as Liverpool travel to Leicester to face a side who are winless in 9…

Eze and Sarr both make the cut this week, with Palace facing Bournemouth and Arsenal in FPL GW33. Eze and Sarr were some of the only Palace assets not to let managers down in FPL GW32, with Sarr providing the assist for Eze in Palace’s fist fixture of the GW against City. Sarr went on to miss an absolute sitter (0.45xG – classed as a big chance too!), while Eze, as mentioned previously, had the ball in the back of the net before being ruled to have strayed into an offside position.

Unfortunately, Eze and Sarr both blanked in the second game of the week, with Eze having his penalty saved by Pope and failing to do much else to affect the game outside of that. Sarr on the other hand had just 1 shot and created 1 chance, failing to test the goalkeeper or cause Newcastle’s backline too many issues. The duo remain the two best Palace midfield/forward assets in my opinion, with Sarr averaging 0.68xGI/90 and Eze 0.53xGI/90. They are the most inform Palace attackers right now.

In order to get the numbers above I multiplied the points that midfielders / forwards are awarded for a goal or an assist in FPL by their underlying numbers.

Sarr’s appeal is clear, and while this model suggests Mateta is a better option than Eze, there are a couple of reasons we’ve gone for the English Midfielder this week… Mateta was subbed at half time against City in GW32, highlighting that he is expendable, and with Nketiah waiting in the wings, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mateta plays the fewest minutes of these three players, making him a much less attractive option. Furthermore, midfielders get extra points for clean sheets and are more likely to get bonus points if they get an attacking return compared to a forward. Mateta is a fine option, but, in order to be on the safe side, we’ve gone for Eze.

Rogers failed to contribute in Villa’s win against PSG in mid-week, but we’re backing him to continue his excellent form into DGW33. Villa are in 7th currently, just outside of the champions league places, and really need to get some points on the board, as their goal difference is so low that if they finish on the same points as the likes of Chelsea or Forest or Newcastle, they’ll be the ones to drop out of the Champions league spots.

Roger’s 8 goals and 7 assists in the league puts him behind only Watkins for goal contributions in the Villa squad, with many of the other attackers often being rotated to keep them fresh for different competitions. Rogers has been almost ever present in Emery’s team selections, and his minutes security is what makes him the best Villa midfield option for us for GW33. As mentioned, Villa’s fixtures are by no means easy, but with the form they’re in, one wouldn’t be surprised to see them come out victorious from at least one of the games this GW.

In the last 5 games in the league, Rogers has 2 goals and 3 assists, more goal contributions than any other player in that time, and, more importantly, the most minutes of any outfield player in that period of 5 games! He’s the ideal Villa attacker due to his minutes security and has been in excellent form of late, he’s the obvious pick.

Finally we have KDB. Following his announcement that he will be leaving City at the end of the season, the Belgian midfielder put in a stunning performance against Crystal Palace in GW32, providing a goal, an assist and 2 bonus points to take home 12 FPL points for his lucky (or perhaps mastermind!) FPL managers.

More than that, he’s played 80+ minutes in both of City’s last two premier league games, making him one of City’s most nailed attackers… right? Realistically all of their attacking players are likely to be rotated across the DGW, so we’ve gone for KDB as we reckon he’s fairly likely to play in both. We are aware of ‘pep-roulette’, but feel that, due to City’s recent form and the fact that they’re playing a DGW, we had to pick at least one City attacking player… Speaking of sky blue attackers…

Further Read: Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Forwards

Completing our almost exclusively DGW team is Marmoush (7.6m) and Watkins (8.9m)!

Everything I wrote about KDB – the risk of rotation being the main point – is true again here, so why on earth are we doubling up on rotation-prone City attackers? Well, Marmoush is perhaps more nailed than KDB if only due to Haaland’s injury. Marmoush is Pep’s only fit ‘striker’, so he is obliged to play him in almost all of their fixtures (although I’m sure he’ll find a way to drop him just to annoy us FPL managers!). He’s our captain this week as we believe he’s more likely to start both matches than KDB.

Marmoush’s numbers are extraordinary this season, rivaling many of the top strikers in the league for underlying numbers and real-term output since his arrival in the Prem in january. His 0.47xG/90 and 0.18xA/90 are nowhere near the numbers he was putting up in the first half of the season, but a period of adaption was inevitable – the fact that this ‘period of adaption’ has equated to 6 goals in 10 games is something to behold.

While I stand by my assertion that he is a better asset WITH Haaland than without, despite his expected minutes going down in that scenario, he’s also an excellent option in the Norwegian’s absence. KDB produced some magical passes against Palace in GW32, many of which Marmoush got onto the end of, but failed to convert (he ended the game with 1.5xG, 0.53xA and just the one goal to show for it), so we’re hoping they can combine again to greater effect in GW33 and score some big points!

Our final player for FPL GW33 is Aston Villa’s Watkins. While rotation remains an issue for all Villa attackers, we’re confident that Watkins can get enough meaningful minutes to warrant a place in the AAFPL Scout Picks team for FPL GW33.

Rashford has started all of Villa’s last three games across the league and champions league, but with Watkins coming on and impressing against Southampton, and playing just 25 minutes against PSG, he’s set up well to start against Newcastle in FPL GW33. Watkins has almost double the xG/90 of Rashford across the season, and is Villa’s top scorer with 14 goals so far this campaign. Like with KDB and Marmoush, we accept the risk that this pick entails, but believe that it is worth it!

Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis

Full FPL GW33 Scout Team

Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW33:

2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
FPL Gameweek 33 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW33 Tips – Players to Target on Bench Boost, Best Transfers & More
FPL GW33 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Sleeper GW33 Draft Fantasy- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW33 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 33 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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